473 research outputs found

    Fuzzy Markovian Bonus-Malus Systems in Non-Life Insurance

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    Markov chains (MCs) are widely used to model a great deal of financial and actuarial problems. Likewise, they are also used in many other fields ranging from economics, management, agricultural sciences, engineering or informatics to medicine. This paper focuses on the use of MCs for the design of non-life bonus-malus systems (BMSs). It proposes quantifying the uncertainty of transition probabilities in BMSs by using fuzzy numbers (FNs). To do so, Fuzzy MCs (FMCs) as defined by Buckley and Eslami in 2002 are used, thus giving rise to the concept of Fuzzy BMSs (FBMSs). More concretely, we describe in detail the common BMS where the number of claims follows a Poisson distribution under the hypothesis that its characteristic parameter is not a real but a triangular FN (TFN). Moreover, we reflect on how to fit that parameter by using several fuzzy data analysis tools and discuss the goodness of triangular approximates to fuzzy transition probabilities, the fuzzy stationary state, and the fuzzy mean asymptotic premium. The use of FMCs in a BMS allows obtaining not only point estimates of all these variables, but also a structured set of their possible values whose reliability is given by means of a possibility measure. Although our analysis is circumscribed to non-life insurance, all of its findings can easily be extended to any of the abovementioned fields with slight modifications.University of Barcelon

    Application of artificial intelligence for technical screening of enhanced oil recovery methods

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    Acknowledgment This study is sponsored by the Angolan National Oil Company (Sonangol EP) and the authors are grateful for their support and the permission to use data and publish this manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

    A novel framework for predicting patients at risk of readmission

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    Uncertainty in decision-making for patients’ risk of re-admission arises due to non-uniform data and lack of knowledge in health system variables. The knowledge of the impact of risk factors will provide clinicians better decision-making and in reducing the number of patients admitted to the hospital. Traditional approaches are not capable to account for the uncertain nature of risk of hospital re-admissions. More problems arise due to large amount of uncertain information. Patients can be at high, medium or low risk of re-admission, and these strata have ill-defined boundaries. We believe that our model that adapts fuzzy regression method will start a novel approach to handle uncertain data, uncertain relationships between health system variables and the risk of re-admission. Because of nature of ill-defined boundaries of risk bands, this approach does allow the clinicians to target individuals at boundaries. Targeting individuals at boundaries and providing them proper care may provide some ability to move patients from high risk to low risk band. In developing this algorithm, we aimed to help potential users to assess the patients for various risk score thresholds and avoid readmission of high risk patients with proper interventions. A model for predicting patients at high risk of re-admission will enable interventions to be targeted before costs have been incurred and health status have deteriorated. A risk score cut off level would flag patients and result in net savings where intervention costs are much higher per patient. Preventing hospital re-admissions is important for patients, and our algorithm may also impact hospital income

    Defuzzification of groups of fuzzy numbers using data envelopment analysis

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    Defuzzification is a critical process in the implementation of fuzzy systems that converts fuzzy numbers to crisp representations. Few researchers have focused on cases where the crisp outputs must satisfy a set of relationships dictated in the original crisp data. This phenomenon indicates that these crisp outputs are mathematically dependent on one another. Furthermore, these fuzzy numbers may exist as a group of fuzzy numbers. Therefore, the primary aim of this thesis is to develop a method to defuzzify groups of fuzzy numbers based on Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (CCR)-Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model by modifying the Center of Gravity (COG) method as the objective function. The constraints represent the relationships and some additional restrictions on the allowable crisp outputs with their dependency property. This leads to the creation of crisp values with preserved relationships and/or properties as in the original crisp data. Comparing with Linear Programming (LP) based model, the proposed CCR-DEA model is more efficient, and also able to defuzzify non-linear fuzzy numbers with accurate solutions. Moreover, the crisp outputs obtained by the proposed method are the nearest points to the fuzzy numbers in case of crisp independent outputs, and best nearest points to the fuzzy numbers in case of dependent crisp outputs. As a conclusion, the proposed CCR-DEA defuzzification method can create either dependent crisp outputs with preserved relationship or independent crisp outputs without any relationship. Besides, the proposed method is a general method to defuzzify groups or individuals fuzzy numbers under the assumption of convexity with linear and non-linear membership functions or relationships

    Life settlement pricing with fuzzy parameters

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    Existing literature asserts that the growth of life settlement (LS) markets, where they exist, is hampered by limited policyholder participation and suggests that to foster this growth appropriate pricing of LS transactions is crucial. The pricing of LSs relies on quantifying two key variables: the insured's mortality multiplier and the internal rate of return (IRR). However, the available information on these parameters is often scarce and vague. To address this issue, this article proposes a novel framework that models these variables using triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs). This modelling approach aligns with how mortality multiplier and IRR data are typically provided in insurance markets and has the advantage of offering a natural interpretation for practitioners. When both the mortality multiplier and the IRR are represented as TFNs, the resulting LS price becomes a FN that no longer retains the triangular shape. Therefore, the paper introduces three alternative triangular approximations to simplify computations and enhance interpretation of the price. Additionally, six criteria are proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of each approximation method. These criteria go beyond the typical approach of assessing the approximation quality to the FN itself. They also consider the usability and comprehensibility for financial analysts with no prior knowledge of FNs. In summary, the framework presented in this paper represents a significant advancement in LS pricing. By incorporating TFNs, offering several triangular approximations and proposing goodness criteria of them, it addresses the challenges posed by limited and vague data, while also considering the practical needs of industry practitioners

    Ergonomic risk factors associated with muscuslokeletal disorders in computer workstation

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    Ergonomics Risk Factors (ERFs) at computer works are commonly related to Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs) such as repetitive movements, doing work in awkward postures and static postures while prolonged seating at works. The main objective of this study was to investigate the ergonomic risk factors associated with MSDs among employees in computer workstation. In this study, the data were obtained by structured interview using self-reported questionnaire and direct observation. The results show that there is significant association between neck and stress score with musculoskeletal symptoms and among office workers. As a conclusion, by assessing ERFs at workplace, the effectiveness of workplace interventions can be evaluated without waiting for changes in the prevalence of MSDs

    Nearest symmetric trapezoidal approximation of fuzzy numbers

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    Abstract Many authors analyzed triangular and trapezoidal approximation of fuzzy numbers. But, to best of our knowledge, there is no method for symmetric trapezoidal fuzzy number approximation of fuzzy numbers. So, in this paper, we try to convert any fuzzy number into symmetric trapezoidal fuzzy number by using metric distance. This approximation helps us to avoid the computational complexity in the process of decision making problems. Moreover, we investigate some reasonable properties of this approximation. An application of this new method is also provided

    The Encyclopedia of Neutrosophic Researchers - vol. 3

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    This is the third volume of the Encyclopedia of Neutrosophic Researchers, edited from materials offered by the authors who responded to the editor’s invitation. The authors are listed alphabetically. The introduction contains a short history of neutrosophics, together with links to the main papers and books. Neutrosophic set, neutrosophic logic, neutrosophic probability, neutrosophic statistics, neutrosophic measure, neutrosophic precalculus, neutrosophic calculus and so on are gaining significant attention in solving many real life problems that involve uncertainty, impreciseness, vagueness, incompleteness, inconsistent, and indeterminacy. In the past years the fields of neutrosophics have been extended and applied in various fields, such as: artificial intelligence, data mining, soft computing, decision making in incomplete / indeterminate / inconsistent information systems, image processing, computational modelling, robotics, medical diagnosis, biomedical engineering, investment problems, economic forecasting, social science, humanistic and practical achievements
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