A prediction method for plasma concentration by using a nonlinear grey Bernoulli combined model based on a self-memory algorithm

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.The goal of this work is to present and explore the application of a novel nonlinear grey Bernoulli combined model based on a self-memory algorithm, abbreviated as SA-NGBM, for modeling single-peaked sequences of time samples of acetylsalicylate plasma concentration following oral dosing. The self-memorization SA-NGBM routine reduces the dependence on a solitary initial value, as the initial state of the model utilizes multiple time samples. To test its forecasting performance, the SA-NGBM was used to extrapolate the plasma concentration predicted data, in comparison with the later time samples. The results were contrasted with those of the traditional optimized NGBM (ONGBM), exponential smoothing (ES) and simple moving average (SMA) using four popular accuracy and significance tests. That comparison showed that the SA-NGBM was much more accurate and efficient for matching the individual, nonlinear-system stochastic fluctuations than the existing ONGBM, ES and SMA models. The findings have potential applications for signal matching to similar small sample size, single-peaked, plasma concentration series

Renewing Local Planning to Face Climate Change in the Tropics

climate vulnerability; urban resilience; climate change; adaptation; planning; environmental risk analysis; decision making; disaster risk reduction; tropical climate managemen

Renewing Local Planning to Face Climate Change in the Tropics

This book aims to inspire decision makers and practitioners to change their approach to climate planning in the tropics through the application of modern technologies for characterizing local climate and tracking vulnerability and risk, and using decision-making tools. Drawing on 16 case studies conducted mainly in the Caribbean, Central America, Western and Eastern Africa, and South East Asia it is shown how successful integration of traditional and modern knowledge can enhance disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change in the tropics. The case studies encompass both rural and urban settings and cover different scales: rural communities, cities, and regions. In addition, the book looks to the future of planning by addressing topics of major importance, including residual risk integration in local development plans, damage insurance and the potential role of climate vulnerability reduction credits. In many regions of the tropics, climate planning is growing but has still very low quality. This book identifies the weaknesses and proposes effective solutions

Renewing Local Planning to Face Climate Change in the Tropics

climate vulnerability; urban resilience; climate change; adaptation; planning; environmental risk analysis; decision making; disaster risk reduction; tropical climate managemen

In silico dynamic optimisation studies for batch/fed-batch mammalian cell suspension cultures producing biopharmaceuticals

Mammalian cell cultures are valuable for synthesis of therapeutic proteins and antibodies. They are commonly cultivated in bioindustry in form of large-scale suspension fed-batch cultures. The structure and regulatory responses of mammalian cells are complex, making it challenging to model them for practical process optimisation. The adjustable degrees of freedom in the cell cultures can be continuous variables as well as binary-type variables. The binary-type variables may be irreversible in cases such as cell-cycle arrest. The main aim of this study was to develop a general model for mammalian cell cultures using extracellular variables and capturing major changes in cellular responses between batch and fed-batch cultures. The model development started with a simple model for a hybridoma cell culture using first-principle equations. The growth kinetics was only linked to glucose and glutamine and the cell population was divided into three cell-cycle phases to study the phenomenon of cell-cycle arrest. But there were certain deficiencies in predicting growth rates in the death phase in fed-batch cultures although it was successful to simultaneously optimise a combination of continuous and binary-irreversible degrees of freedom. Thus, the growth kinetics was further related to amino acids concentration and cellular responses to high versus low concentration of glutamine and glucose based on a Chinese hamster ovary cell-line where amino acids data were available. The model contained 192 parameters with 26 measured cell culture variables. Most of the sensitive parameters were able to be identified using the Sobol' method of Global Sensitivity Analysis. The model could capture the main trends of key variables and be used to search for the optimal working range of the controllable variables. But uncertainties in the sensitive model parameters caused non-negligible variations in the model-based optimisation results. It is recommended to couple such off-line optimisation with on-line measurements of a few major variables to tackle the real-time uncertain nature of the complex cell culture system.Open acces

Climate Change and Restoration of Degraded Land

The United Nations Climate Change Conference, Durban 2011, delivered a breakthrough on the international community's response to climate change. In the second largest meeting of its kind, the negotiations advanced, in a balanced fashion, the implementation of the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, the Bali Action Plan, and the Cancun Agreements. The outcomes included a decision by Parties to adopt a universal legal agreement on climate change as soon as possible, and no later than 2015. One of the decisions adopted by COP 17 and CMP 7 regard to the land use, land-use change and forestry, and invites the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to review and, if necessary, update supplementary methodologies for estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks resulting from land use, land-use change and forestry activities under Article 3, paragraphs 3 and 4, of the Kyoto Protocol. Land degradation is a human-induced or natural process which negatively affects the productivity of land within an ecosystem. The direct causes of land degradation are geographically specific. Climate change, including changes in short-term variation, as well as long-term gradual changes in temperature and precipitation, is expected to be an additional stress on rates of land degradation. Book Topics: • Introduction to Climate Change and Land Degradation • Change Mitigation • Climate Change and Waste Land Restoration • Water Management and Planning • Erosion and Hydrological Restoration • Forest Fire Land Restoration • Polluted Soils Restoration • Combating Climate Change by Restoration of Degraded Land • Research Matters – Climate Change Governance • Advanced Statistics Climate Change and Restoration of Degraded Land is of interests to academics, engineers, consultans, designers and professionals involved in restoration of degraded lands projects

Alien Planktonic Species in the Marine Realm: What Do They Mean for Ecosystem Services Provision?

Human well-being is significantly affected by the contributions provided by ecosystems, or ecosystem services. In this well-illustrated atlas, world-class experts identify and discuss key driving forces, trade-offs, and synergies of ecosystem services. Through interdisciplinary case studies varying across ecosystems and scales, this atlas narrows the knowledge gap between ecosystem services management and related fields of study. This atlas begins with conceptual background and proceeds to present drivers and their risks for ecosystems, their functions and services, and biodiversity. Trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services and societal responses to the drivers and trade-offs are discussed. Sustainable land management and governance concepts are demonstrated throughout the atlas. Environmental scientists, practitioners and policy makers worldwide will appreciate the solutions and best practices identified throughout the chapters. Students of environmental sciences, socio-economics and landscape planning will find this atlas to be a valuable read, as well

Breeding for increased water use efficiency in chickpea

Water use efficiency (WUE) is a complex trait, hence secondary traits which are genetically associated with WUE and have a positive association with yield, easy to measure and have genetic variation can be used as breeding targets for high WUE. The aim of the present study was to discover the variation for water use efficiency and grain yield in different tillage and irrigation regimes; the basis of yield formation under water limited conditions and develop a chickpea ideotype. The field experiment was conducted at the Plant Breeding Institute, the University of Sydney in Narrabri, northwest New South Wales in Australia. A total of 36 entries were planted replicated twice under well-watered and water-stress conditions, and no-till and till regimes. Water use was monitored using a neutron probe moisture meter and water use efficiency calculated using the soil water balance method. Grain yield was higher under irrigation at 1722 kg/ha than rainfed conditions at 1478 kg/ha. No-till had 7.4% higher yield than the till regime. WUE was higher under no-till (5.02 kg/ha/mm) than under till (4.87 kg/ha/mm) and higher under irrigation (5.05 kg/ha/mm) than under rainfed conditions (4.84 kg/ha/mm). There was a strong association between grain yield and WUE under rainfed conditions, thus high yielding genotypes had high WUE. Sonali had the highest yield and WUE. Normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) at early podding and late podding and chlorophyll content at late podding were useful marker traits in identifying genotypes with potentially high yield and high drought tolerance. Sonali, ICCV 96853 and PBA Slasher were identified as drought tolerant genotypes. The constructed chickpea ideotype had higher yields than the commercial varieties and had 76% resemblance to Sonali. By incorporating key target traits and targeting the right environment, chickpea yields can be sustained under soil water limited conditions

Genome evolution and virulence in H. pylori: Identifying the genes/alleles underlying phenotype variation

An estimated 50% of all people carry the stomach bacterium Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori). This organism is responsible for gastric problems like gastritis and gastric ulcers, and is one of the major causes of gastric cancer worldwide. Large numbers of people carry this organism asymptomatically and many questions remain about why serious symptoms develop in a subset of infected humans.These extremely recombinant bacteria may take different evolutionary trajectories in different people, and some genomic changes may be associated with gastric cancer. To test this, and learn more about the genetics of cancer-associated H. pylori, different approaches were used.First, evolution of H. pylori populations was investigated looking at both core and accessory genomes and revealed traces of the long and complex history of the Americas in the bacterial genomes, as well as a similar evolution in core and accessory genome. This was the first time accessory genome of H. pylori was studied that way. Secondly, evolution occurring in the bacterial genome during colonisation of a single host was studied in mice model. This analysis revealed small changes during the passage from a human host to a mice host, and during the long-term colonisation of mice stomach. Then a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) approach was applied to a large isolate collection sampled across Europe comprising strains isolated from cancer patients and strains from asymptomatic or gastritis-suffering patients. This approach identified 11 polymorphisms in 9 genes (3 cagPAI genes, babA, hpaA, 1 outer membrane protein coding gene HP1055 and 3 other core genes (HP0747, HP0709 and HP0468) associated with cancer and a preliminary risk score was built to identify high risk strains. Finally, variations observed among clinical isolates of H. pylori from European patients with different pathologies in terms of motility and ability to trigger cytokine production in two types of cells were quantified. Motility variations were not associated with the disease type, but a link was observed for cytokine production. This was compared to genomic variations, confirming the role of known genomic factors such as cagPAI genes and sheding light to possible functions of a number of new genes