The Green Choice: Learning and Influencing Human Decisions on Shared Roads

Autonomous vehicles have the potential to increase the capacity of roads via platooning, even when human drivers and autonomous vehicles share roads. However, when users of a road network choose their routes selfishly, the resulting traffic configuration may be very inefficient. Because of this, we consider how to influence human decisions so as to decrease congestion on these roads. We consider a network of parallel roads with two modes of transportation: (i) human drivers who will choose the quickest route available to them, and (ii) ride hailing service which provides an array of autonomous vehicle ride options, each with different prices, to users. In this work, we seek to design these prices so that when autonomous service users choose from these options and human drivers selfishly choose their resulting routes, road usage is maximized and transit delay is minimized. To do so, we formalize a model of how autonomous service users make choices between routes with different price/delay values. Developing a preference-based algorithm to learn the preferences of the users, and using a vehicle flow model related to the Fundamental Diagram of Traffic, we formulate a planning optimization to maximize a social objective and demonstrate the benefit of the proposed routing and learning scheme.Comment: Submitted to CDC 201

Integrating Pro-Environmental Behavior with Transportation Network Modeling: User and System Level Strategies, Implementation, and Evaluation

Personal transport is a leading contributor to fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse (GHG) emissions in the U.S. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that light-duty vehicles (LDV) are responsible for 61\% of all transportation related energy consumption in 2012, which is equivalent to 8.4 million barrels of oil (fossil fuel) per day. The carbon content in fossil fuels is the primary source of GHG emissions that links to the challenge associated with climate change. Evidently, it is high time to develop actionable and innovative strategies to reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions from the road transportation networks. This dissertation integrates the broader goal of minimizing energy and emissions into the transportation planning process using novel systems modeling approaches. This research aims to find, investigate, and evaluate strategies that minimize carbon-based fuel consumption and emissions for a transportation network. We propose user and system level strategies that can influence travel decisions and can reinforce pro-environmental attitudes of road users. Further, we develop strategies that system operators can implement to optimize traffic operations with emissions minimization goal. To complete the framework we develop an integrated traffic-emissions (EPA-MOVES) simulation framework that can assess the effectiveness of the strategies with computational efficiency and reasonable accuracy. ^ The dissertation begins with exploring the trade-off between emissions and travel time in context of daily travel decisions and its heterogeneous nature. Data are collected from a web-based survey and the trade-off values indicating the average additional travel minutes a person is willing to consider for reducing a lb. of GHG emissions are estimated from random parameter models. Results indicate that different trade-off values for male and female groups. Further, participants from high-income households are found to have higher trade-off values compared with other groups. Next, we propose personal mobility carbon allowance (PMCA) scheme to reduce emissions from personal travel. PMCA is a market-based scheme that allocates carbon credits to users at no cost based on the emissions reduction goal of the system. Users can spend carbon credits for travel and a market place exists where users can buy or sell credits. This dissertation addresses two primary dimensions: the change in travel behavior of the users and the impact at network level in terms of travel time and emissions when PMCA is implemented. To understand this process, a real-time experimental game tool is developed where players are asked to make travel decisions within the carbon budget set by PMCA and they are allowed to trade carbon credits in a market modeled as a double auction game. Random parameter models are estimated to examine the impact of PMCA on short-term travel decisions. Further, to assess the impact at system level, a multi-class dynamic user equilibrium model is formulated that captures the travel behavior under PMCA scheme. The equivalent variational inequality problem is solved using projection method. Results indicate that PMCA scheme is able to reduce GHG emissions from transportation networks. Individuals with high value of travel time (VOTT) are less sensitive to PMCA scheme in context of work trips. High and medium income users are more likely to have non-work trips with lower carbon cost (higher travel time) to save carbon credits for work trips. ^ Next, we focus on the strategies from the perspectives of system operators in transportation networks. Learning based signal control schemes are developed that can reduce emissions from signalized urban networks. The algorithms are implemented and tested in VISSIM micro simulator. Finally, an integrated emissions-traffic simulator framework is outlined that can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the strategies. The integrated framework uses MOVES2010b as the emissions simulator. To estimate the emissions efficiently we propose a hierarchical clustering technique with dynamic time warping similarity measures (HC-DTW) to find the link driving schedules for MOVES2010b. Test results using the data from a five-intersection corridor show that HC-DTW technique can significantly reduce emissions estimation time without compromising the accuracy. The benefits are found to be most significant when the level of congestion variation is high. ^ In addition to finding novel strategies for reducing emissions from transportation networks, this dissertation has broader impacts on behavior based energy policy design and transportation network modeling research. The trade-off values can be a useful indicator to identify which policies are most effective to reinforce pro-environmental travel choices. For instance, the model can estimate the distribution of trade-off between emissions and travel time, and provide insights on the effectiveness of policies for New York City if we are able to collect data to construct a representative sample. The probability of route choice decisions vary across population groups and trip contexts. The probability as a function of travel and demographic attributes can be used as behavior rules for agents in an agent-based traffic simulation. Finally, the dynamic user equilibrium based network model provides a general framework for energy policies such carbon tax, tradable permit, and emissions credits system

Joint strategy fictitious play with inertia for potential games

We consider multi-player repeated games involving a large number of players with large strategy spaces and enmeshed utility structures. In these ldquolarge-scalerdquo games, players are inherently faced with limitations in both their observational and computational capabilities. Accordingly, players in large-scale games need to make their decisions using algorithms that accommodate limitations in information gathering and processing. This disqualifies some of the well known decision making models such as ldquoFictitious Playrdquo (FP), in which each player must monitor the individual actions of every other player and must optimize over a high dimensional probability space. We will show that Joint Strategy Fictitious Play (JSFP), a close variant of FP, alleviates both the informational and computational burden of FP. Furthermore, we introduce JSFP with inertia, i.e., a probabilistic reluctance to change strategies, and establish the convergence to a pure Nash equilibrium in all generalized ordinal potential games in both cases of averaged or exponentially discounted historical data. We illustrate JSFP with inertia on the specific class of congestion games, a subset of generalized ordinal potential games. In particular, we illustrate the main results on a distributed traffic routing problem and derive tolling procedures that can lead to optimized total traffic congestion

Sharing diverse information gets driver agents to learn faster : an application in en route trip building

With the increase in the use of private transportation, developing more efficient ways to distribute routes in a traffic network has become more and more important. Several attempts to address this issue have already been proposed, either by using a central authority to assign routes to the vehicles, or by means of a learning process where drivers select their best routes based on their previous experiences. The present work addresses a way to connect reinforcement learning to new technologies such as car-to-infrastructure communication in order to augment the drivers knowledge in an attempt to accelerate the learning process. Our method was compared to both a classical, iterative approach, as well as to standard reinforcement learning without communication. Results show that our method outperforms both of them. Further, we have performed robustness tests, by allowing messages to be lost, and by reducing the storage capacity of the communication devices. We were able to show that our method is not only tolerant to information loss, but also points out to improved performance when not all agents get the same information. Hence, we stress the fact that, before deploying communication in urban scenarios, it is necessary to take into consideration that the quality and diversity of information shared are key aspects