Improving the predictability of take-off times with Machine Learning : a case study for the Maastricht upper area control centre area of responsibility

The uncertainty of the take-off time is a major contribution to the loss of trajectory predictability. At present, the Estimated Take-Off Time (ETOT) for each individual flight is extracted from the Enhanced Traffic Flow Management System (ETFMS) messages, which are sent each time there is an event triggering a recalculation of the flight data by the Network Man- ager Operations Centre. However, aircraft do not always take- off at the ETOTs reported by the ETFMS due to several factors, including congestion and bad weather conditions at the departure airport, reactionary delays and air traffic flow management slot improvements. This paper presents two machine learning models that take into account several of these factors to improve the take- off time prediction of individual flights one hour before their estimated off-block time. Predictions performed by the model trained on three years of historical flight and weather data show a reduction on the take-off time prediction error of about 30% as compared to the ETOTs reported by the ETFMS.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

FastDeepIoT: Towards Understanding and Optimizing Neural Network Execution Time on Mobile and Embedded Devices

Deep neural networks show great potential as solutions to many sensing application problems, but their excessive resource demand slows down execution time, pausing a serious impediment to deployment on low-end devices. To address this challenge, recent literature focused on compressing neural network size to improve performance. We show that changing neural network size does not proportionally affect performance attributes of interest, such as execution time. Rather, extreme run-time nonlinearities exist over the network configuration space. Hence, we propose a novel framework, called FastDeepIoT, that uncovers the non-linear relation between neural network structure and execution time, then exploits that understanding to find network configurations that significantly improve the trade-off between execution time and accuracy on mobile and embedded devices. FastDeepIoT makes two key contributions. First, FastDeepIoT automatically learns an accurate and highly interpretable execution time model for deep neural networks on the target device. This is done without prior knowledge of either the hardware specifications or the detailed implementation of the used deep learning library. Second, FastDeepIoT informs a compression algorithm how to minimize execution time on the profiled device without impacting accuracy. We evaluate FastDeepIoT using three different sensing-related tasks on two mobile devices: Nexus 5 and Galaxy Nexus. FastDeepIoT further reduces the neural network execution time by $48\%$ to $78\%$ and energy consumption by $37\%$ to $69\%$ compared with the state-of-the-art compression algorithms.Comment: Accepted by SenSys '1

Data-driven Models for Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Aircraft Engines and Hard Disk Drives

Failure of physical devices can cause inconvenience, loss of money, and sometimes even deaths. To improve the reliability of these devices, we need to know the remaining useful life (RUL) of a device at a given point in time. Data-driven approaches use data from a physical device to build a model that can estimate the RUL. They have shown great performance and are often simpler than traditional model-based approaches. Typical statistical and machine learning approaches are often not suited for sequential data prediction. Recurrent Neural Networks are designed to work with sequential data but suffer from the vanishing gradient problem over time. Therefore, I explore the use of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for RUL prediction. I perform two experiments. First, I train bidirectional LSTM networks on the Backblaze hard-disk drive dataset. I achieve an accuracy of 96.4\% on a 60 day time window, state-of-the-art performance. Additionally, I use a unique standardization method that standardizes each hard drive instance independently and explore the benefits and downsides of this approach. Finally, I train LSTM models on the NASA N-CMAPSS dataset to predict aircraft engine remaining useful life. I train models on each of the eight sub-datasets, achieving a RMSE of 6.304 on one of the sub-datasets, the second-best in the current literature. I also compare an LSTM network\u27s performance to the performance of a Random Forest and Temporal Convolutional Neural Network model, demonstrating the LSTM network\u27s superior performance. I find that LSTM networks are capable predictors for device remaining useful life and show a thorough model development process that can be reproduced to develop LSTM models for various RUL prediction tasks. These models will be able to improve the reliability of devices such as aircraft engines and hard-disk drives

The Role of Neural Networks in Predicting the Thermal Life of Electrical Machines

© 2013 IEEE. For a continuous mode of operation, insulating material in an electrical machine is subject to constant thermal, electrical, mechanical and environmental stresses where thermal stress is a major cause of gradual insulation deterioration, which leads to ultimate winding failure. To guarantee a satisfactory lifetime, electrical machines are designed to operate winding temperatures well below their thermal class, which results in an oversized design. Standard methods for thermal lifetime evaluation of electrical machines are based on accelerated aging tests that require several months of testing. This paper proposes an alternative approach relying on a supervised neural network that significantly shortens the time demanded by accelerated aging tests for thermal lifetime evaluation of electrical machines. The supervised neural network is based on a feedforward neural network trained with Bayesian Regularisation Backpropagation (BRP) algorithm. The network predicts the wire insulation resistance with respect to its aging time at aging temperatures of 250°C, 270°C and 290°C, which reveals a good match of prediction outcomes against the experimental findings. The mean time-to-failure at each aging temperature is extracted using the Weibull probability plot in order to compare the Arrhenius curves for both conventional and proposed method and a relative error of 0.125% is achieved in terms of their temperature indexes. In addition, the analysis shows a time saving of 1680 hours (57% time saved of experimental test procedure) when the thermal life of the insulating material is predicted using BRP neural network

The role of neural networks in predicting the thermal life of electrical machines

For a continuous mode of operation, insulating material in an electrical machine is subject to constant thermal, electrical, mechanical and environmental stresses where thermal stress is a major cause of gradual insulation deterioration, which leads to ultimate winding failure. To guarantee a satisfactory lifetime, electrical machines are designed to operate winding temperatures well below their thermal class, which results in an oversized design. Standard methods for thermal lifetime evaluation of electrical machines are based on accelerated aging tests that require several months of testing. This paper proposes an alternative approach relying on a supervised neural network that significantly shortens the time demanded by accelerated aging tests for thermal lifetime evaluation of electrical machines. The supervised neural network is based on a feedforward neural network trained with Bayesian Regularisation Backpropagation (BRP) algorithm. The network predicts the wire insulation resistance with respect to its aging time at aging temperatures of 250ºC, 270ºC and 290ºC, which reveals a good match of prediction outcomes against the experimental findings. The mean time-to-failure at each aging temperature is extracted using the Weibull probability plot in order to compare the Arrhenius curves for both conventional and proposed method and a relative error of 0.125% is achieved in terms of their temperature indexes. In addition, the analysis shows a time saving of 1680 hours (57% time saved of experimental test procedure) when the thermal life of the insulating material is predicted using BRP neural network.</div

Deep Learning For Aircraft Health Management

Outgoin

Improving aircraft performance using machine learning: a review

This review covers the new developments in machine learning (ML) that are impacting the multi-disciplinary area of aerospace engineering, including fundamental fluid dynamics (experimental and numerical), aerodynamics, acoustics, combustion and structural health monitoring. We review the state of the art, gathering the advantages and challenges of ML methods across different aerospace disciplines and provide our view on future opportunities. The basic concepts and the most relevant strategies for ML are presented together with the most relevant applications in aerospace engineering, revealing that ML is improving aircraft performance and that these techniques will have a large impact in the near future

Innovative actuator fault identification based on back electromotive force reconstruction

The ever increasing adoption of electrical power as secondary form of on-board power is leading to an increase in the usage of electromechanical actuators (EMAs). Thus, in order to maintain an acceptable level of safety and reliability, innovative prognostics and diagnostics methodologies are needed to prevent performance degradation and/or faults propagation. Furthermore, the use of effective prognostics methodologies carries several benefits, including improved maintenance schedule capability and relative cost decrease, better knowledge of systems health status and performance estimation. In this work, a novel, real-time approach to EMAs prognostics is proposed. The reconstructed back electromotive force (back-EMF), determined using a virtual sensor approach, is sampled and then used to train an artificial neural network (ANN) in order to evaluate the current system status and to detect possible coils partial shorts and rotor imbalances