An eco-epidemiological predator-prey model where predators distinguish between susceptible and infected prey

A predator-prey model with disease amongst the prey and ratio-dependent functional response for both infected and susceptible prey is proposed and its features analysed. This work is based on previous mathematical models to analyse the important ecosystem of the Salton Sea in Southern California and New Mexico where birds (particularly pelicans) prey on fish (particularly tilapia). The dynamics of the system around each of the ecologically meaningful equilibria are presented. Natural disease control is considered before studying the impact of the disease in the absence of predators, the interaction of predators and healthy prey and the disease effects on predators in the absence of healthy prey. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical simulation

Stability Analysis of a Ratio-Dependent Predator-Prey Model Incorporating a Prey Refuge

A ratio-dependent predator-prey model incorporating a prey refuge with disease in the prey population is formulated and analyzed. The effects of time delay due to the gestation of the predator and stage structure for the predator on the dynamics of the system are concerned. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of a predator-extinction equilibrium and a coexistence equilibrium of the system is discussed, respectively. Further, it is proved that the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation at the coexistence equilibrium, when τ=τ0. By comparison arguments, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the predator-extinction equilibrium. By using an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are derived for the global attractivity of the coexistence equilibrium of the proposed system

Moving forward in circles: challenges and opportunities in modelling population cycles

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer–resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research