New safety model for the commercial human spaceflight industry

The aviation and space domains have safety guidelines and recommended practices for Design Organisations (DOs) and Operators alike. In terms of Aerospace DOs there are certification criteria to meet and to demonstrate compliance there are Advisory Circulars or Acceptable Means of Compliance to follow. Additionally there are guidelines such as Aerospace Recommended Practices (ARP), Military Standards (MIL-STD 882 series) and System Safety Handbooks to follow in order to identify and manage failure conditions. In terms of Operators there are FAA guidelines and a useful ARP that details many tools and techniques in understanding Operator Safety Risks. However there is currently no methodology for linking the DO and Operator safety efforts. In the space domain NASA have provided safety standards and guidelines to follow and also within Europe there are European Co-operation of Space Standardization (ECSS) to follow. Within the emerging Commercial Human Spaceflight Industry, the FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation has provided hazard analysis guidelines. However all of these space domain safety documents are based on the existing aerospace methodology and once again, there is no link between the DO and Operator’s safety effort. This paper addresses the problematic issue and presents a coherent methodology of joining up the System Safety effort of the DOs to the Operator Safety Risk Management such that a ‘Total System’ approach is adopted. Part of the rationale is that the correct mitigation (control) can be applied within the correct place in the accident sequence. Also this contiguous approach ensures that the Operator is fully aware of the safety risks (at the accident level) and therefore has an appreciation of the Total System Risk. The authors of this paper contend that it is better practice to have a fully integrated safety model as opposed to disparate requirements or guidelines. Our methodology is firstly to review ‘best practice’ approaches from the aviation and space industries, and then to integrate these approaches into a contiguous safety model for the commercial human spaceflight industry

The future of UAS: standards, regulations, and operational experiences [workshop report]

This paper presents the outcomes of "The Future of UAS: Standards, Regulations and Operational Experiences" workshop, held on the 7th and 8th of December, 2006 in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. The goal of the workshop was to identify recent international activities in the Unmanned Airborne Systems (UAS) airspace integration problem. The workshop attracted a broad cross-section of the UAS community, including: airspace and safety regulators, developers, operators and researchers. The three themes of discussion were: progress in the development of standards and regulations, lessons learnt from recent operations, and advances in new technologies. This paper summarises the activities of the workshop and explores the important outcomes and trends as perceived by the authors

Predicting pilot error on the flight deck: Validation of a new methodology and a multiple methods and analysts approach to enhancing error prediction sensitivity

The Human Error Template (HET) is a recently developed methodology for predicting designed induced pilot error. This article describes a validation study undertaken to compare the performance of HET against three contemporary Human Error Identification (HEI) approaches when used to predict pilot errors for an approach and landing task and also to compare individual analyst error predictions to an approach to enhancing error prediction sensitivity: the multiple analysts and methods approach, whereby multiple analyst predictions using a range of HEI technique are pooled. The findings indicate that, of the four methodologies used in isolation, analysts using the HET methodology offered the most accurate error predictions, and also that the multiple analysts and methods approach was more successful overall in terms of error prediction sensitivity than the three other methods but not the HET approach. The results suggest that when predicting design induced error, it is appropriate to use domain specific approaches and also a toolkit of different HEI approaches and multiple analysts in order to heighten error prediction sensitivity

FRAM for systemic accident analysis: a matrix representation of functional resonance

Due to the inherent complexity of nowadays Air Traffic Management (ATM) system, standard methods looking at an event as a linear sequence of failures might become inappropriate. For this purpose, adopting a systemic perspective, the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) originally developed by Hollnagel, helps identifying non-linear combinations of events and interrelationships. This paper aims to enhance the strength of FRAM-based accident analyses, discussing the Resilience Analysis Matrix (RAM), a user-friendly tool that supports the analyst during the analysis, in order to reduce the complexity of representation of FRAM. The RAM offers a two dimensional representation which highlights systematically connections among couplings, and thus even highly connected group of couplings. As an illustrative case study, this paper develops a systemic accident analysis for the runway incursion happened in February 1991 at LAX airport, involving SkyWest Flight 5569 and USAir Flight 1493. FRAM confirms itself a powerful method to characterize the variability of the operational scenario, identifying the dynamic couplings with a critical role during the event and helping discussing the systemic effects of variability at different level of analysis

Finding a needle in a haystack: toward a psychologically informed method for aviation security screening

Current aviation security systems identify behavioral indicators of deception to assess risks to flights, but they lack a strong psychological basis or empirical validation. We present a new method that tests the veracity of passenger accounts. In an in vivo double-blind randomized-control trial conducted in international airports, security agents detected 66% of deceptive passengers using the veracity test method compared with less than 5% using behavioral indicator recognition. As well as revealing advantages of veracity testing over behavioral indicator identification, the study provides the highest levels to date of deception detection in a realistic setting where the known base rate of deceptive individuals is low

Architecture and Information Requirements to Assess and Predict Flight Safety Risks During Highly Autonomous Urban Flight Operations

As aviation adopts new and increasingly complex operational paradigms, vehicle types, and technologies to broaden airspace capability and efficiency, maintaining a safe system will require recognition and timely mitigation of new safety issues as they emerge and before significant consequences occur. A shift toward a more predictive risk mitigation capability becomes critical to meet this challenge. In-time safety assurance comprises monitoring, assessment, and mitigation functions that proactively reduce risk in complex operational environments where the interplay of hazards may not be known (and therefore not accounted for) during design. These functions can also help to understand and predict emergent effects caused by the increased use of automation or autonomous functions that may exhibit unexpected non-deterministic behaviors. The envisioned monitoring and assessment functions can look for precursors, anomalies, and trends (PATs) by applying model-based and data-driven methods. Outputs would then drive downstream mitigation(s) if needed to reduce risk. These mitigations may be accomplished using traditional design revision processes or via operational (and sometimes automated) mechanisms. The latter refers to the in-time aspect of the system concept. This report comprises architecture and information requirements and considerations toward enabling such a capability within the domain of low altitude highly autonomous urban flight operations. This domain may span, for example, public-use surveillance missions flown by small unmanned aircraft (e.g., infrastructure inspection, facility management, emergency response, law enforcement, and/or security) to transportation missions flown by larger aircraft that may carry passengers or deliver products. Caveat: Any stated requirements in this report should be considered initial requirements that are intended to drive research and development (R&D). These initial requirements are likely to evolve based on R&D findings, refinement of operational concepts, industry advances, and new industry or regulatory policies or standards related to safety assurance

Committed to Safety: Ten Case Studies on Reducing Harm to Patients

Presents case studies of healthcare organizations, clinical teams, and learning collaborations to illustrate successful innovations for improving patient safety nationwide. Includes actions taken, results achieved, lessons learned, and recommendations

A survey of simulation techniques in commerce and defence

Despite the developments in Modelling and Simulation (M&S) tools and techniques over the past years, there has been a gap in the M&S research and practice in healthcare on developing a toolkit to assist the modellers and simulation practitioners with selecting an appropriate set of techniques. This study is a preliminary step towards this goal. This paper presents some results from a systematic literature survey on applications of M&S in the commerce and defence domains that could inspire some improvements in the healthcare. Interim results show that in the commercial sector Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) has been the most widely used technique with System Dynamics (SD) in second place. However in the defence sector, SD has gained relatively more attention. SD has been found quite useful for qualitative and soft factors analysis. From both the surveys it becomes clear that there is a growing trend towards using hybrid M&S approaches

Shipboard Crisis Management: A Case Study.

The loss of the "Green Lily" in 1997 is used as a case study to highlight the characteristics of escalating crises. As in similar safety critical industries, these situations are unpredictable events that may require co-ordinated but flexible and creative responses from individuals and teams working in stressful conditions. Fundamental skill requirements for crisis management are situational awareness and decision making. This paper reviews the naturalistic decision making (NDM) model for insights into the nature of these skills and considers the optimal training regimes to cultivate them. The paper concludes with a review of the issues regarding the assessment of crisis management skills and current research into the determination of behavioural markers for measuring competence