Testing the Option Value Theory of Irreversible Investment

This paper statistically tests the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty. Using dynamic programming and contingent claims valuation alternatively, we derive the value of options to invest in capacity, where the projects are endogenous to the economic circumstances prevailing at the investment date. We then test whether capacity investment decisions made by Canadian copper mines are compatible with the theory. The result speak strongly in favor of option theory as a theory of real investment; in particular, we provide a test which rejects the Net Present Value criterion, and our model explains both investment size and timing satisfactorily from a statistical and from an economic point of view. En recourrant tour à tour à la programmation dynamique et à la méthode des actifs contigents, nous établissons la valeur de l'option d'effectuer des investissements irréversibles réels qui sont sensibles aux paramètres économiques prévalant au moment de la décision. Nous testons ensuite si des investissements en capacité de production effectués par des mines de cuivre canadiennes sont conformes aux implications de la théorie. Les résultats sont fortements en faveur de celle-ci; nos données rejettent le critère de la valeur actuelle nette et le modèle explique tant la taille que la date des investissements d'une manière statistiquement et économiquement satisfaisante.Irreversible investment/Uncertainty/Dynamic programming/Contingent claims/Option value/Putty Clay/Real investment, Investissement irréversible; Incertitude; Programmation dynamique; Actifs contingents; Valeur d'option; modèle Putty Clay; Investissement réel.

Learning and Governance in Inter-Firm Relations

This paper connects theory of learning with theory of governance, in the context of inter-firm relations. It recognizes fundamental criticism of transaction cost economics (TCE), but preserves elements from that theory. The theory of governance used incorporates learning and trust. The paper identifies two kinds of relational risk: hold-up and spillover. For the governance of relations, i.e. the control of relational risk, it develops a box of instruments which includes trust, next to instruments derived and adapted from TCE. These instruments are geared to problems that are specific to learning in interaction between firms. They also include additional roles for go-betweens.transaction cost economics;trust;inter-organizational learning

The History of the Quantitative Methods in Finance Conference Series. 1992-2007

This report charts the history of the Quantitative Methods in Finance (QMF) conference from its beginning in 1993 to the 15th conference in 2007. It lists alphabetically the 1037 speakers who presented at all 15 conferences and the titles of their papers.

Real Options at Bell Canada

In this report, we first develop a simplified example that illustrates the importance of considering the option ``waiting to invest'' when valuing an investment. This is followed by a short description of other options that could be embedded in an investment opportunity. In order to stress the importance of the real option mind-set in strategic planning and competitive assessment, we present three examples of possible applications of real options for evaluating investments at Bell Canada. A brief discussion follows on the importance of a real options mind-set in the telecommunications regulation context. Finally we conclude by underlining the importance of an efficient information gathering and processing framework to implement a real options framework. Two technical appendices provide more details on both the modeling and the solving techniques that are commonly used to implement real options. The complete version of this publication is confidential. Nous débutons ce rapport en développant un exemple simplifié qui illustre l'importance de valoriser l'option de retarder un investissement. Une courte description des différentes options susceptibles d'être incorporées dans un projet d'investissement est ensuite donnée. Pour illustrer l'importance d'adopter un cadre d'analyse basé sur la méthodologie des options réelles pour la planification stratégique et l'analyse concurrentielle, nous présentons trois applications possibles d'options réelles dans l'évaluation d'investissements chez Bell Canada. La nécessité de l'adoption d'un tel cadre d'analyse dans le contexte de la réglementation des télécommunications fait ensuite l'objet d'une brève discussion. Nous terminons en soulignant que le succès de la mise en pratique d'un cadre «options réelles» dépend essentiellement d'un système efficace de collecte et de traitement de l'information. Deux appendices techniques fournissent plus de détails sur les techniques de modélisation et de solution qui sont couramment utilisées pour des problèmes d'options réelles. La version complète de cette publication est confidentielle.Real options, option value, volatility, risk, irreversibility, telecommunications, Options réelles, valeur d'option, volatilité, risque, irréversibilité, télécommunications

Assessing the financial vulnerability to climate-related natural hazards

National governments are key actors in managing the impacts of extreme weather events, yet many highly exposed developing countries -- faced with exhausted tax bases, high levels of indebtedness, and limited donor assistance -- have been unable to raise sufficient and timely capital to replace or repair damaged infrastructure and restore livelihoods after major disasters. Such financial vulnerability hampers development and exacerbates poverty. Based on the record of the past 30 years, this paper finds many developing countries, in particular small island states, to be highly financially vulnerable, and experiencing a resource gap (net disaster losses exceed all available financing sources) for events that occur with a probability of 2 percent or higher. This has three main implications. First, efforts to reduce risk need to be ramped-up to lessen the serious human and financial burdens. Second, contrary to the well-known Arrow-Lind theorem, there is a case for country risk aversion implying that disaster risks faced by some governments cannot be absorbed without major difficulty. Risk aversion entails the ex ante financing of losses and relief expenditure through calamity funds, regional insurance pools, or contingent credit arrangements. Third, financially vulnerable (and generally poor) countries are unlikely to be able to implement pre-disaster risk financing instruments themselves, and thus require technical and financial assistance from the donor community. The cost estimates of financial vulnerability -- based on today's climate -- inform the design of"climate insurance funds"to absorb high levels of sovereign risk and are found to be in the lower billions of dollars annually, which represents a baseline for the incremental costs arising from future climate change.Hazard Risk Management,Debt Markets,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Banks&Banking Reform,Climate Change Economics

Governance and Competence

Transaction cost economics faces serious problems concerning the way it deals, or fails to deal, with bounded rationality, the efficiency of outcomes, trust, innovation, learning and the nature of knowledge. The competence view yields an alternative perspective on the purpose and boundaries of the firm. However, the competence view cannot ignore issues of governance, and in spite of serious criticism, transaction cost economics yields useful concepts to deal with it. This article aims to contribute to the development of theory and empirical research that connects governance and competence perspectives.governance;learning;organization;inter-organizational relations;inter-firm alliances

Navigation in new terrain with familiar maps: Masterminding socio-spatial equality through resource oriented innovation policy.

This paper explores how political struggles influence innovation policy through a Norwegian case study on the formation of a state-funded research and development program for utilizing natural gas feedstock from the North Sea. Despite the apparent dominance of business, specialized branches of the state, and R&D institutions in the realm of innovation policy, the key argument of this paper is that labor unions and regional interests exert considerable influence in shaping national innovation policy, in particular when reflexively exploiting new forms of state accumulation strategies while retaining a defensive stance against deindustrialization. First, we argue that the struggle for state funding to natural-gasbased R&D was particularly effective because appropriate strategic political networks and alliances were mobilized. Second, the construction of strategic arguments to accommodate the social corporatist heritage of state intervention on the one hand and the competitionoriented language of flexible specialization on the other, proved crucial for acceptance as a state strategy. The paper engages a Strategic– Relational Approach to state theory and argues that this is a useful starting point when studying how particular contexts affect how and why certain innovation policies emerge. In doing so, we also address the lack of political analysis in innovation studies.

Response to Peter Monkhouse

The regulation of infrastructure by the ACCC and other economic regulators in Australia is based around net present value estimation techniques. Recently; Monkhouse (2007) suggested that real options valuation would provide better incentives for investment in infrastructure; but did not elucidate how a regulatory system based on real options valuation should operate. This paper endeavours to sketch the outlines of such a system; and finds that it has considerable promise as an alternative to the status quo; provided an appropriate technique for addressing monopoly rents can be developed.Railways; economic regulation