Identifying Effective Features and Classifiers for Short Term Rainfall Forecast Using Rough Sets Maximum Frequency Weighted Feature Reduction Technique

Precise rainfall forecasting is a common challenge across the globe in meteorological predictions. As rainfall forecasting involves rather complex dynamic parameters, an increasing demand for novel approaches to improve the forecasting accuracy has heightened. Recently, Rough Set Theory (RST) has attracted a wide variety of scientific applications and is extensively adopted in decision support systems. Although there are several weather prediction techniques in the existing literature, identifying significant input for modelling effective rainfall prediction is not addressed in the present mechanisms. Therefore, this investigation has examined the feasibility of using rough set based feature selection and data mining methods, namely Naïve Bayes (NB), Bayesian Logistic Regression (BLR), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), J48, Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM), to forecast rainfall. Feature selection or reduction process is a process of identifying a significant feature subset, in which the generated subset must characterize the information system as a complete feature set. This paper introduces a novel rough set based Maximum Frequency Weighted (MFW) feature reduction technique for finding an effective feature subset for modelling an efficient rainfall forecast system. The experimental analysis and the results indicate substantial improvements of prediction models when trained using the selected feature subset. CART and J48 classifiers have achieved an improved accuracy of 83.42% and 89.72%, respectively. From the experimental study, relative humidity2 (a4) and solar radiation (a6) have been identified as the effective parameters for modelling rainfall prediction

WHEAT YIELD PREDICTION USING NEURAL NETWORK AND INTEGRATED SVM-NN WITH REGRESSION

The production of wheat plays an important role in Pakistan’s economy. Wheat yield forecasting is significant farming problem as it’s the most important crop of Pakistan. Prediction of the wheat yield has been determined by data mining techniques with different environmental factors. Data mining techniques have been developed for analysing and implementation on wheat yield dataset to predict the yield which is very helpful to produce wheat. In this study, Neural Network and a Novel Integrated approach of Neural Network, Support Vector Machine and Regression are used to analyze and estimates the wheat yield production. We have used these predictive techniques with area, yield, production, soil pH, temperature, air pressure, rainfall, water availability, humidity, pesticides and fertilizer parameter for wheat yield prediction

Probabilistic and artificial intelligence modelling of drought and agricultural crop yield in Pakistan

Pakistan is a drought-prone, agricultural nation with hydro-meteorological imbalances that increase the scarcity of water resources, thus, constraining water availability and leading major risks to the agricultural productivity sector and food security. Rainfall and drought are imperative matters of consideration, both for hydrological and agricultural applications. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to advance new knowledge in designing hybridized probabilistic and artificial intelligence forecasts models for rainfall, drought and crop yield within the agricultural hubs in Pakistan. The choice of these study regions is a strategic decision, to focus on precision agriculture given the importance of rainfall and drought events on agricultural crops in socioeconomic activities of Pakistan. The outcomes of this PhD contribute to efficient modelling of seasonal rainfall, drought and crop yield to assist farmers and other stakeholders to promote more strategic decisions for better management of climate risk for agriculturalreliant nations

Role of Machine Learning, Deep Learning and WSN in Disaster Management: A Review and Proposed Architecture

Disasters are occurrences that have the potential to adversely affect a community via casualties, ecological damage, or monetary losses. Due to its distinctive geoclimatic characteristics, India has always been susceptible to natural calamities. Disaster Management is the management of disaster prevention, readiness, response, and recovery tasks in a systematic manner. This paper reviews various types of disasters and their management approaches implemented by researchers using Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) and machine learning techniques. It also compares and contrasts various prediction algorithms and uses the optimal algorithm on multiple flood prediction datasets. After understanding the drawbacks of existing datasets, authors have developed a new dataset for Mumbai, Maharashtra consisting of various attributes for flood prediction. The performance of the optimal algorithm on the dataset is seen by the training, validation and testing accuracy of 100%, 98.57% and 77.59% respectively

Predicting complex system behavior using hybrid modeling and computational intelligence

“Modeling and prediction of complex systems is a challenging problem due to the sub-system interactions and dependencies. This research examines combining various computational intelligence algorithms and modeling techniques to provide insights into these complex processes and allow for better decision making. This hybrid methodology provided additional capabilities to analyze and predict the overall system behavior where a single model cannot be used to understand the complex problem. The systems analyzed here are flooding events and fetal health care. The impact of floods on road infrastructure is investigated using graph theory, agent-based traffic simulation, and Long Short-Term Memory deep learning to predict water level rise from river gauge height. Combined with existing infrastructure models, these techniques provide a 15-minute interval for making closure decisions rather than the current 6-hour interval. The second system explored is fetal monitoring, which is essential to diagnose severe fetal conditions such as acidosis. Support Vector Machine and Random Forest were compared to identify the best model for classification of fetal state. This model provided a more accurate classification than existing research on the CTG. A deep learning forecasting model was developed to predict the future values for fetal heart rate and uterine contractions. The forecasting and classification algorithms are then integrated to evaluate the future condition of the fetus. The final model can predict the fetal state 4 minutes ahead to help the obstetricians to plan necessary interventions for preventing acidosis and asphyxiation. In both cases, time series predictions using hybrid modeling provided superior results to existing methods to predict complex behaviors”--Abstract, page iv

A Machine Learning Model for Early Prediction of Crop Yield, Nested in a Web Application in the Cloud: A Case Study in an Olive Grove in Southern Spain

Predictive systems are a crucial tool in management and decision-making in any productive sector. In the case of agriculture, it is especially interesting to have advance information on the profitability of a farm. In this sense, depending on the time of the year when this information is available, important decisions can be made that affect the economic balance of the farm. The aim of this study is to develop an effective model for predicting crop yields in advance that is accessible and easy to use by the farmer or farm manager from a web-based application. In this case, an olive orchard in the Andalusia region of southern Spain was used. The model was estimated using spatio-temporal training data, such as yield data from eight consecutive years, and more than twenty meteorological parameters data, automatically charged from public web services, belonging to a weather station located near the sample farm. The workflow requires selecting the parameters that influence the crop prediction and discarding those that introduce noise into the model. The main contribution of this research is the early prediction of crop yield with absolute errors better than 20%, which is crucial for making decisions on tillage investments and crop marketing

A Machine Learning Model for Early Prediction of Crop Yield, Nested in a Web Application in the Cloud: A Case Study in an Olive Grove in Southern Spain

Predictive systems are a crucial tool in management and decision-making in any productive sector. In the case of agriculture, it is especially interesting to have advance information on the profitability of a farm. In this sense, depending on the time of the year when this information is available, important decisions can be made that affect the economic balance of the farm. The aim of this study is to develop an effective model for predicting crop yields in advance that is accessible and easy to use by the farmer or farm manager from a web-based application. In this case, an olive orchard in the Andalusia region of southern Spain was used. The model was estimated using spatio-temporal training data, such as yield data from eight consecutive years, and more than twenty meteorological parameters data, automatically charged from public web services, belonging to a weather station located near the sample farm. The workflow requires selecting the parameters that influence the crop prediction and discarding those that introduce noise into the model. The main contribution of this research is the early prediction of crop yield with absolute errors better than 20%, which is crucial for making decisions on tillage investments and crop marketing.European Commission PYC20-RE-005-UJA 1381202-GEU IEG-2021 y PREDIC_I-GOPO-JA-20-0006Instituto de Estudios GiennesesJunta de AndaluciaMinistry for Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge, Spanish Government (AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia

Novel Approach for Forecasting Sugarcane Crop Yield: A Real-Time Prediction

Agriculture is an environment in which there is considerable confusion. Crop development depends largely on several variables, including climate, temperature, genetics, politics and economics. In addition, a huge number of raw agriculture statistics are available, but study of those details for estimating crop yield is quite challenging. The most challenging job is therefore to include accurate details and awareness about the raw farm data. In order to evaluate cultivation yield, data mining could customize data expertise. The objective of this study was to predict crop yields through the use of data mining technological advances. Moreover, this paper compared various classification algorithms and it is expected that the results of the study may enhance the actual yields of sugarcane in a wide number of tropical fields. The specifications used in the forecast were plot (soil size, plant area, rain distance, previous year's plant yield), sugar-cane characteristics (cane class and sort), crop cultivation procedure (normal water resource size, cultivation technique, disease management process, sort / procedure of fertilizer) as well as rain quantity

Short-Term Forecasting of Passenger Demand under On-Demand Ride Services: A Spatio-Temporal Deep Learning Approach

Short-term passenger demand forecasting is of great importance to the on-demand ride service platform, which can incentivize vacant cars moving from over-supply regions to over-demand regions. The spatial dependences, temporal dependences, and exogenous dependences need to be considered simultaneously, however, which makes short-term passenger demand forecasting challenging. We propose a novel deep learning (DL) approach, named the fusion convolutional long short-term memory network (FCL-Net), to address these three dependences within one end-to-end learning architecture. The model is stacked and fused by multiple convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, standard LSTM layers, and convolutional layers. The fusion of convolutional techniques and the LSTM network enables the proposed DL approach to better capture the spatio-temporal characteristics and correlations of explanatory variables. A tailored spatially aggregated random forest is employed to rank the importance of the explanatory variables. The ranking is then used for feature selection. The proposed DL approach is applied to the short-term forecasting of passenger demand under an on-demand ride service platform in Hangzhou, China. Experimental results, validated on real-world data provided by DiDi Chuxing, show that the FCL-Net achieves better predictive performance than traditional approaches including both classical time-series prediction models and neural network based algorithms (e.g., artificial neural network and LSTM). This paper is one of the first DL studies to forecast the short-term passenger demand of an on-demand ride service platform by examining the spatio-temporal correlations.Comment: 39 pages, 10 figure