A Hierarchal Planning Framework for AUV Mission Management in a Spatio-Temporal Varying Ocean

The purpose of this paper is to provide a hierarchical dynamic mission planning framework for a single autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) to accomplish task-assign process in a limited time interval while operating in an uncertain undersea environment, where spatio-temporal variability of the operating field is taken into account. To this end, a high level reactive mission planner and a low level motion planning system are constructed. The high level system is responsible for task priority assignment and guiding the vehicle toward a target of interest considering on-time termination of the mission. The lower layer is in charge of generating optimal trajectories based on sequence of tasks and dynamicity of operating terrain. The mission planner is able to reactively re-arrange the tasks based on mission/terrain updates while the low level planner is capable of coping unexpected changes of the terrain by correcting the old path and re-generating a new trajectory. As a result, the vehicle is able to undertake the maximum number of tasks with certain degree of maneuverability having situational awareness of the operating field. The computational engine of the mentioned framework is based on the biogeography based optimization (BBO) algorithm that is capable of providing efficient solutions. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, firstly, a realistic model of undersea environment is provided based on realistic map data, and then several scenarios, treated as real experiments, are designed through the simulation study. Additionally, to show the robustness and reliability of the framework, Monte-Carlo simulation is carried out and statistical analysis is performed. The results of simulations indicate the significant potential of the two-level hierarchical mission planning system in mission success and its applicability for real-time implementation

QoE Modelling, Measurement and Prediction: A Review

In mobile computing systems, users can access network services anywhere and anytime using mobile devices such as tablets and smart phones. These devices connect to the Internet via network or telecommunications operators. Users usually have some expectations about the services provided to them by different operators. Users' expectations along with additional factors such as cognitive and behavioural states, cost, and network quality of service (QoS) may determine their quality of experience (QoE). If users are not satisfied with their QoE, they may switch to different providers or may stop using a particular application or service. Thus, QoE measurement and prediction techniques may benefit users in availing personalized services from service providers. On the other hand, it can help service providers to achieve lower user-operator switchover. This paper presents a review of the state-the-art research in the area of QoE modelling, measurement and prediction. In particular, we investigate and discuss the strengths and shortcomings of existing techniques. Finally, we present future research directions for developing novel QoE measurement and prediction technique

A belief function theory based approach to combining different representation of uncertainty in prognostics

International audienceIn this work, we consider two prognostic approaches for the prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of degrading equipment. The first approach is based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and provides the probability distribution of the equipment RUL; the second approach adopts a Similarity-Based Regression (SBR) method for the RUL prediction and belief function theory for modeling the uncertainty on the prediction. The performance of the two approaches is comparable and we propose a method for combining their outcomes in an ensemble. The least commitment principle is adopted to transform the RUL probability density function supplied by the GPR method into a belief density function. Then, the Dempster's rule is used to aggregate the belief assignments provided by the GPR and the SBR approaches. The ensemble method is applied to the problem of predicting the RUL of filters used to clean the sea water entering the condenser of the boiling water reactor (BWR) in a Swedish nuclear power plant. The results by the ensemble method are shown to be more satisfactory than that provided by the individual GPR and SBR approaches from the point of view of the representation of the uncertainty in the RUL prediction

An online grey-box model based on unscented kalman filter to predict temperature profiles in smart buildings

Nearly 40% of primary energy consumption is related to the usage of energy in Buildings. Energy-related data such as indoor air temperature and power consumption of heating/cooling systems can be now collected due to the widespread diffusion of Internet-of-Things devices. Such energy data can be used (i) to train data-driven models than learn the thermal properties of buildings and (ii) to predict indoor temperature evolution. In this paper, we present a Grey-box model to estimate thermal dynamics in buildings based on Unscented Kalman Filter and thermal network representation. The proposed methodology has been applied in two different buildings with two different thermal network discretizations to test its accuracy in indoor air temperature prediction. Due to a lack of a real-world data sampled by Internet of Things (IoT) devices, a realistic data-set has been generated using the software Energy+, by referring to real industrial building models. Results on synthetic and realistic data show the accuracy of the proposed methodology in predicting indoor temperature trends up to the next 24 h with a maximum error lower than 2 °C, considering one year of data with different weather conditions

A novel framework for predicting patients at risk of readmission

Uncertainty in decision-making for patients’ risk of re-admission arises due to non-uniform data and lack of knowledge in health system variables. The knowledge of the impact of risk factors will provide clinicians better decision-making and in reducing the number of patients admitted to the hospital. Traditional approaches are not capable to account for the uncertain nature of risk of hospital re-admissions. More problems arise due to large amount of uncertain information. Patients can be at high, medium or low risk of re-admission, and these strata have ill-defined boundaries. We believe that our model that adapts fuzzy regression method will start a novel approach to handle uncertain data, uncertain relationships between health system variables and the risk of re-admission. Because of nature of ill-defined boundaries of risk bands, this approach does allow the clinicians to target individuals at boundaries. Targeting individuals at boundaries and providing them proper care may provide some ability to move patients from high risk to low risk band. In developing this algorithm, we aimed to help potential users to assess the patients for various risk score thresholds and avoid readmission of high risk patients with proper interventions. A model for predicting patients at high risk of re-admission will enable interventions to be targeted before costs have been incurred and health status have deteriorated. A risk score cut off level would flag patients and result in net savings where intervention costs are much higher per patient. Preventing hospital re-admissions is important for patients, and our algorithm may also impact hospital income

Supplier Selection Model Based on D Numbers and Transformation Function

Selecting reasonable suppliers can effectively improve the efficiency of enterprise supply chain management. Among them, expert evaluation is an important part of supplier selection problem, but the uncertainty, fuzziness and incompleteness of expert opinions make supplier selection problem difficult to solve. In order to systematically and effectively solve the uncertainty, ambiguity and incompleteness in supplier selection problem, this paper presents a new supplier selection method based on D numbers and transformation function. First, fuzzy preference relation is generated based on the decision matrix of pairwise comparisons given by experts. D numbers which can effectively deal with uncertain information extend fuzzy preference relation (D matrix). Second, the D matrix is converted into a crisp matrix form based on the integration representation of D numbers according to different situations whether or not the information in D matrix is complete. Third, the crisp matrix is converted into judgement matrix by using the transformation functions. Finally, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is applied based on the judgment matrix to give a priority weights for decision making. Three numerical examples and application of the supplier selection are used to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method