10,395 research outputs found
Spatio-temporal learning with the online finite and infinite echo-state Gaussian processes
Successful biological systems adapt to change. In this paper, we are principally concerned with adaptive systems that operate in environments where data arrives sequentially and is multivariate in nature, for example, sensory streams in robotic systems. We contribute two reservoir inspired methods: 1) the online echostate Gaussian process (OESGP) and 2) its infinite variant, the online infinite echostate Gaussian process (OIESGP) Both algorithms are iterative fixed-budget methods that learn from noisy time series. In particular, the OESGP combines the echo-state network with Bayesian online learning for Gaussian processes. Extending this to infinite reservoirs yields the OIESGP, which uses a novel recursive kernel with automatic relevance determination that enables spatial and temporal feature weighting. When fused with stochastic natural gradient descent, the kernel hyperparameters are iteratively adapted to better model the target system. Furthermore, insights into the underlying system can be gleamed from inspection of the resulting hyperparameters. Experiments on noisy benchmark problems (one-step prediction and system identification) demonstrate that our methods yield high accuracies relative to state-of-the-art methods, and standard kernels with sliding windows, particularly on problems with irrelevant dimensions. In addition, we describe two case studies in robotic learning-by-demonstration involving the Nao humanoid robot and the Assistive Robot Transport for Youngsters (ARTY) smart wheelchair
A Stochastic Majorize-Minimize Subspace Algorithm for Online Penalized Least Squares Estimation
Stochastic approximation techniques play an important role in solving many
problems encountered in machine learning or adaptive signal processing. In
these contexts, the statistics of the data are often unknown a priori or their
direct computation is too intensive, and they have thus to be estimated online
from the observed signals. For batch optimization of an objective function
being the sum of a data fidelity term and a penalization (e.g. a sparsity
promoting function), Majorize-Minimize (MM) methods have recently attracted
much interest since they are fast, highly flexible, and effective in ensuring
convergence. The goal of this paper is to show how these methods can be
successfully extended to the case when the data fidelity term corresponds to a
least squares criterion and the cost function is replaced by a sequence of
stochastic approximations of it. In this context, we propose an online version
of an MM subspace algorithm and we study its convergence by using suitable
probabilistic tools. Simulation results illustrate the good practical
performance of the proposed algorithm associated with a memory gradient
subspace, when applied to both non-adaptive and adaptive filter identification
problems
Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.
This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation
Analyzing sparse dictionaries for online learning with kernels
Many signal processing and machine learning methods share essentially the
same linear-in-the-parameter model, with as many parameters as available
samples as in kernel-based machines. Sparse approximation is essential in many
disciplines, with new challenges emerging in online learning with kernels. To
this end, several sparsity measures have been proposed in the literature to
quantify sparse dictionaries and constructing relevant ones, the most prolific
ones being the distance, the approximation, the coherence and the Babel
measures. In this paper, we analyze sparse dictionaries based on these
measures. By conducting an eigenvalue analysis, we show that these sparsity
measures share many properties, including the linear independence condition and
inducing a well-posed optimization problem. Furthermore, we prove that there
exists a quasi-isometry between the parameter (i.e., dual) space and the
dictionary's induced feature space.Comment: 10 page
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