Personalized Purchase Prediction of Market Baskets with Wasserstein-Based Sequence Matching

Personalization in marketing aims at improving the shopping experience of customers by tailoring services to individuals. In order to achieve this, businesses must be able to make personalized predictions regarding the next purchase. That is, one must forecast the exact list of items that will comprise the next purchase, i.e., the so-called market basket. Despite its relevance to firm operations, this problem has received surprisingly little attention in prior research, largely due to its inherent complexity. In fact, state-of-the-art approaches are limited to intuitive decision rules for pattern extraction. However, the simplicity of the pre-coded rules impedes performance, since decision rules operate in an autoregressive fashion: the rules can only make inferences from past purchases of a single customer without taking into account the knowledge transfer that takes place between customers. In contrast, our research overcomes the limitations of pre-set rules by contributing a novel predictor of market baskets from sequential purchase histories: our predictions are based on similarity matching in order to identify similar purchase habits among the complete shopping histories of all customers. Our contributions are as follows: (1) We propose similarity matching based on subsequential dynamic time warping (SDTW) as a novel predictor of market baskets. Thereby, we can effectively identify cross-customer patterns. (2) We leverage the Wasserstein distance for measuring the similarity among embedded purchase histories. (3) We develop a fast approximation algorithm for computing a lower bound of the Wasserstein distance in our setting. An extensive series of computational experiments demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach. The accuracy of identifying the exact market baskets based on state-of-the-art decision rules from the literature is outperformed by a factor of 4.0.Comment: Accepted for oral presentation at 25th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD 2019

Assortative mixing in close-packed spatial networks

Background In recent years, there is aroused interest in expressing complex systems as networks of interacting nodes. Using descriptors from graph theory, it has been possible to classify many diverse systems derived from social and physical sciences alike. In particular, folded proteins as examples of self-assembled complex molecules have also been investigated intensely using these tools. However, we need to develop additional measures to classify different systems, in order to dissect the underlying hierarchy. Methodology and Principal Findings In this study, a general analytical relation for the dependence of nearest neighbor degree correlations on degree is derived. Dependence of local clustering on degree is shown to be the sole determining factor of assortative versus disassortative mixing in networks. The characteristics of networks constructed from spatial atomic/molecular systems exemplified by self-organized residue networks built from folded protein structures and block copolymers, atomic clusters and well-compressed polymeric melts are studied. Distributions of statistical properties of the networks are presented. For these densely-packed systems, assortative mixing in the network construction is found to apply, and conditions are derived for a simple linear dependence. Conclusions Our analyses (i) reveal patterns that are common to close-packed clusters of atoms/molecules, (ii) identify the type of surface effects prominent in different close-packed systems, and (iii) associate fingerprints that may be used to classify networks with varying types of correlations

A survey of machine learning techniques applied to self organizing cellular networks

In this paper, a survey of the literature of the past fifteen years involving Machine Learning (ML) algorithms applied to self organizing cellular networks is performed. In order for future networks to overcome the current limitations and address the issues of current cellular systems, it is clear that more intelligence needs to be deployed, so that a fully autonomous and flexible network can be enabled. This paper focuses on the learning perspective of Self Organizing Networks (SON) solutions and provides, not only an overview of the most common ML techniques encountered in cellular networks, but also manages to classify each paper in terms of its learning solution, while also giving some examples. The authors also classify each paper in terms of its self-organizing use-case and discuss how each proposed solution performed. In addition, a comparison between the most commonly found ML algorithms in terms of certain SON metrics is performed and general guidelines on when to choose each ML algorithm for each SON function are proposed. Lastly, this work also provides future research directions and new paradigms that the use of more robust and intelligent algorithms, together with data gathered by operators, can bring to the cellular networks domain and fully enable the concept of SON in the near future