Effort Estimation for Service-Oriented Computing Environments

The concept of service in Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) makes possible to introduce other ideas like service composition, governance and virtualization. Each of these ideas, when exercised to an enterprise level, provides benefits in terms of cost and performance. These ideas bring many new opportunities for the project managers in making the estimates of effort required to produce SOA systems. This is because the SOA systems are different from traditional software projects and there is a lack of efficient metrics and models for providing a high level of confidence in effort estimation. Thus, in this paper, an efficient estimation methodology has been presented based on analyzing the development phases of past SOA based software systems. The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to study and analyze the development phases of some past SOA based systems; second, to propose estimation metrics based on these analyzed parameters. The proposed methodology is facilitated from the use of four regression(s) based estimation models. The validation of the proposed methodology is cross checked by comparing the predictive accuracy, using some commonly used performance measurement indicators and box-plots evaluation. The evaluation results of the study (using industrial data collected from 10 SOA based software systems) show that the effort estimates obtained using the multiple linear regression model are more accurate and indicate an improvement in performance than the other used regression models

Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

Automated driving and autonomous functions on road vehicles

In recent years, road vehicle automation has become an important and popular topic for research and development in both academic and industrial spheres. New developments received extensive coverage in the popular press, and it may be said that the topic has captured the public imagination. Indeed, the topic has generated interest across a wide range of academic, industry and governmental communities, well beyond vehicle engineering; these include computer science, transportation, urban planning, legal, social science and psychology. While this follows a similar surge of interest – and subsequent hiatus – of Automated Highway Systems in the 1990’s, the current level of interest is substantially greater, and current expectations are high. It is common to frame the new technologies under the banner of “self-driving cars” – robotic systems potentially taking over the entire role of the human driver, a capability that does not fully exist at present. However, this single vision leads one to ignore the existing range of automated systems that are both feasible and useful. Recent developments are underpinned by substantial and long-term trends in “computerisation” of the automobile, with developments in sensors, actuators and control technologies to spur the new developments in both industry and academia. In this paper we review the evolution of the intelligent vehicle and the supporting technologies with a focus on the progress and key challenges for vehicle system dynamics. A number of relevant themes around driving automation are explored in this article, with special focus on those most relevant to the underlying vehicle system dynamics. One conclusion is that increased precision is needed in sensing and controlling vehicle motions, a trend that can mimic that of the aerospace industry, and similarly benefit from increased use of redundant by-wire actuators

Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed.business cycle; continuous time econometrics; investment cycle; inventory cycle; maximum entropy spectral analysis; parametric resonance

On the benefits of phase shift keying to optical telecommunication systems

Les avantages de la modulation de phase vis-à-vis la modulation d’intensité pour les réseaux optiques sont claires et accepté par la communauté scientifique des télécommunications optiques. Surtout, la modulation de phase montre une meilleure sensibilité au bruit, ainsi qu’une plus grande tolérance aux effets non-linéaires que la modulation d’intensité. Nous présentons dans cette thése un étude qui vise à développer les avantages de la modulation de phase. Nous attaquons d’abord la complexité du récepteur en détection directe, en proposant une nouvelle configuration dont la complexité est comparable à celle du récepteur pour la modulation d’intensité traditionnel, mais avec des meilleures performances. Cette solution pourrait convenir pour les réseaux métropolitains (et même d’accès) à haut débit binaire. Nous passons ensuite à l’examen de la possibilité d’utiliser des amplificateur à semi-conducteur (SOA) au lieu des amplificateurs à fibre dopée à l’erbium pour fournir amplification optique aux signaux modulés en phase. Les non-linéarité des SOA sont étudiées, et un compensateur simple et très efficace est proposé. Les avantages des amplificateurs à semi-conducteur par rapport à ceux à fibre sont bien connus. Surtout, la méthode que nous proposons permettrait l’integrabilité des SOA avec d’autres composants de réseau (par exemple, le récepteur nommé cidessus), menant à des solutions technologiques de petite taille et efficaces d’un point de vue énergétique. Il y a deux types de systèmes pour signaux modulés en phase: basé sur la détection directe, ou sur les récepteurs cohérents. Dans le dernière partie de ce travail, nous nous concentrons sur cette dernière catégorie, et nous comparons deux solutions possibles pour la mise à niveau des réseaux terrestres actuel. Nous comparons deux configurations dont les performances sont très comparables en termes de sensibilité au bruit, mais nous montrons comment la meilleure tolérance aux effets non linéaires (en particuliers dans les systèmes à débit mixte) fait que une solution soit bien plus efficace que l’autre.The advantages of phase modulation (PM) vis-à-vis intensity modulation for optical networks are accepted by the optical telecommunication community. PM exhibits a higher noise sensitivity than intensity modulation, and it is more tolerant to the effects of fiber nonlinearity. In this thesis we examine the challenges and the benefits of working with different aspects of phase modulation. Our first contribution tackles the complexity of the direct detection noncoherent receiver for differentially encoded quadrature phase shift keying. We examine a novel configuration whose complexity is comparable to that of traditional receivers for intensity modulation, yet outperforming it. We show that under severe nonlinear impairments, our proposed receiver works almost as well as the conventional receiver, with the advantage of being much less complex. We also show that the proposed receiver is tolerant to chromatic dispersion, and to detuning of the carrier frequency. This solution might be suitable for high-bit rates metro (and even access) networks. Our second contribution deals with the challenges of using semiconductor optical amplifiers (SOAs) instead of typical erbium doped fiber amplifiers (EDFAs) to provide amplification to phase modulated signals. SOAs nonlinearities are investigated, and we propose a simple and very effective feed-forward compensator. Above all, the method we propose would permit the integrability of SOAs with other network components (for example, the aforementioned receiver) achieving small size, power efficient sub-systems. Phase modulation paves the way to high spectral efficiency, especially when paired with digital coherent receivers. With the digital coherent receiver, the degree of freedom offered by polarization can be exploited to increase the channel bit rate without increasing its spectral occupancy. In the last part of this work we focus on polarization multiplexed signaling paired with coherent reception and digital signal processing. Our third contribution provides insight on the strategies for upgrading current terrestrial core networks to high bit rates. This is a particularly challenging scenario, as phase modulation has to coexist with previously installed intensity modulated channels. We compare two configurations which have received much attention in the literature. These solutions show comparable performance in terms of back-to-back noise sensitivity, and yet are not equivalent. We show how the superior tolerance to nonlinear fiber propagation (and particularly to cross phase modulation induced by the presence of intensity modulated channels) makes one of them much more effective than the other