Prognostic Algorithms for Condition Monitoring and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

To enable the benets of a truly condition-based maintenance philosophy to be realised, robust, accurate and reliable algorithms, which provide maintenance personnel with the necessary information to make informed maintenance decisions, will be key. This thesis focuses on the development of such algorithms, with a focus on semiconductor manufacturing and wind turbines. An introduction to condition-based maintenance is presented which reviews dierent types of maintenance philosophies and describes the potential benets which a condition- based maintenance philosophy will deliver to operators of critical plant and machinery. The issues and challenges involved in developing condition-based maintenance solutions are discussed and a review of previous approaches and techniques in fault diagnostics and prognostics is presented. The development of a condition monitoring system for dry vacuum pumps used in semi- conductor manufacturing is presented. A notable feature is that upstream process mea- surements from the wafer processing chamber were incorporated in the development of a solution. In general, semiconductor manufacturers do not make such information avail- able and this study identies the benets of information sharing in the development of condition monitoring solutions, within the semiconductor manufacturing domain. The developed solution provides maintenance personnel with the ability to identify, quantify, track and predict the remaining useful life of pumps suering from degradation caused by pumping large volumes of corrosive uorine gas. A comprehensive condition monitoring solution for thermal abatement systems is also presented. As part of this work, a multiple model particle ltering algorithm for prog- nostics is developed and tested. The capabilities of the proposed prognostic solution for addressing the uncertainty challenges in predicting the remaining useful life of abatement systems, subject to uncertain future operating loads and conditions, is demonstrated. Finally, a condition monitoring algorithm for the main bearing on large utility scale wind turbines is developed. The developed solution exploits data collected by onboard supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems in wind turbines. As a result, the developed solution can be integrated into existing monitoring systems, at no additional cost. The potential for the application of multiple model particle ltering algorithm to wind turbine prognostics is also demonstrated

Review of Health Prognostics and Condition Monitoring of Electronic Components

To meet the specifications of low cost, highly reliable electronic devices, fault diagnosis techniques play an essential role. It is vital to find flaws at an early stage in design, components, material, or manufacturing during the initial phase. This review paper attempts to summarize past development and recent advances in the areas about green manufacturing, maintenance, remaining useful life (RUL) prediction, and like. The current state of the art in reliability research for electronic components, mainly includes failure mechanisms, condition monitoring, and residual lifetime evaluation is explored. A critical analysis of reliability studies to identify their relative merits and usefulness of the outcome of these studies' vis-a-vis green manufacturing is presented. The wide array of statistical, empirical, and intelligent tools and techniques used in the literature are then identified and mapped. Finally, the findings are summarized, and the central research gap is highlighted

Data mining in manufacturing: a review based on the kind of knowledge

In modern manufacturing environments, vast amounts of data are collected in database management systems and data warehouses from all involved areas, including product and process design, assembly, materials planning, quality control, scheduling, maintenance, fault detection etc. Data mining has emerged as an important tool for knowledge acquisition from the manufacturing databases. This paper reviews the literature dealing with knowledge discovery and data mining applications in the broad domain of manufacturing with a special emphasis on the type of functions to be performed on the data. The major data mining functions to be performed include characterization and description, association, classification, prediction, clustering and evolution analysis. The papers reviewed have therefore been categorized in these five categories. It has been shown that there is a rapid growth in the application of data mining in the context of manufacturing processes and enterprises in the last 3 years. This review reveals the progressive applications and existing gaps identified in the context of data mining in manufacturing. A novel text mining approach has also been used on the abstracts and keywords of 150 papers to identify the research gaps and find the linkages between knowledge area, knowledge type and the applied data mining tools and techniques

A Review of Bayesian Methods in Electronic Design Automation

The utilization of Bayesian methods has been widely acknowledged as a viable solution for tackling various challenges in electronic integrated circuit (IC) design under stochastic process variation, including circuit performance modeling, yield/failure rate estimation, and circuit optimization. As the post-Moore era brings about new technologies (such as silicon photonics and quantum circuits), many of the associated issues there are similar to those encountered in electronic IC design and can be addressed using Bayesian methods. Motivated by this observation, we present a comprehensive review of Bayesian methods in electronic design automation (EDA). By doing so, we hope to equip researchers and designers with the ability to apply Bayesian methods in solving stochastic problems in electronic circuits and beyond.Comment: 24 pages, a draft version. We welcome comments and feedback, which can be sent to [email protected]

Development of an advanced artificial intelligent reliability analysis tool to enhance ship operations and maintenance activities

No Abstract availableNo Abstract availabl

Industrial Internet of Things, Big Data, and Artificial Intelligence in the Smart Factory: a survey and perspective

International audienceThanks to the rapid development and applications of advanced technologies, we are experiencing the fourth industrial revolution, or Industry 4.0, which is a revolution towards smart manufacturing. The wide use of cyber physical systems and Internet of Things leads to the era of Big Data in industrial manufacturing. Artificial Intelligence algorithms emerge as powerful analytics tools to process and analyze the Big Data. These advanced technologies result in the introduction of a new concept in the Industry 4.0: the smart Factory. In order to fully understand this new concept in the context of the Industry 4.0, this paper provides a survey on the key components of a smart factory and the link between them, including the Industrial Internet of Things, Big Data and Artificial Intelligence. Several studies and techniques that are used to enable smart manufacturing are reviewed. Finally, we discuss some perspectives for further researches

Prognostics and health management of light emitting diodes

Prognostics is an engineering process of diagnosing, predicting the remaining useful life and estimating the reliability of systems and products. Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) has emerged in the last decade as one of the most efficient approaches in failure prevention, reliability estimation and remaining useful life predictions of various engineering systems and products. Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) are optoelectronic micro-devices that are now replacing traditional incandescent and fluorescent lighting, as they have many advantages including higher reliability, greater energy efficiency, long life time and faster switching speed. Even though LEDs have high reliability and long life time, manufacturers and lighting systems designers still need to assess the reliability of LED lighting systems and the failures in the LED. This research provides both experimental and theoretical results that demonstrate the use of prognostics and health monitoring techniques for high power LEDs subjected to harsh operating conditions. Data driven, model driven and fusion prognostics approaches are developed to monitor and identify LED failures, based on the requirement for the light output power. The approaches adopted in this work are validated and can be used to assess the life of an LED lighting system after their deployment based on the power of the light output emitted. The data driven techniques are only based on monitoring selected operational and performance indicators using sensors whereas the model driven technique is based on sensor data as well as on a developed empirical model. Fusion approach is also developed using the data driven and the model driven approaches to the LED. Real-time implementation of developed approaches are also investigated and discussed

A systematic mapping of the advancing use of machine learning techniques for predictive maintenance in the manufacturing sector

The increasing availability of data, gathered by sensors and intelligent machines, is chang-ing the way decisions are made in the manufacturing sector. In particular, based on predictive approach and facilitated by the nowadays growing capabilities of hardware, cloud-based solutions, and new learning approaches, maintenance can be scheduled—over cell engagement and resource monitoring—when required, for minimizing (or managing) unexpected equipment failures, improving uptime through less aggressive maintenance schedules, shortening unplanned downtime, reducing excess (direct and indirect) cost, reducing long-term damage to machines and processes, and improve safety plans. With access to increased levels of data (and over learning mechanisms), companies have the capability to conduct statistical tests using machine learning algorithms, in order to uncover root causes of problems previously unknown. This study analyses the maturity level and contributions of machine learning methods for predictive maintenance. An upward trend in publications for predictive maintenance using machine learning techniques was identified with the USA and China leading. A mapping study—steady set until early 2019 data—was employed as a formal and well-structured method to synthesize material and to report on pervasive areas of research. Type of equipment, sensors, and data are mapped to properly assist new researchers in positioning new research activities in the domain of smart maintenance. Hence, in this paper, we focus on data-driven methods for predictive maintenance (PdM) with a comprehensive survey on applications and methods until, for the sake of commenting on stable proposal, 2019 (early included). An equal repartition between evaluation and validation studies was identified, this being a symptom of an immature but growing research area. In addition, the type of contribution is mainly in the form of models and methodologies. Vibrational signal was marked as the most used data set for diagnosis in manufacturing machinery monitoring; furthermore, supervised learning is reported as the most used predictive approach (ensemble learning is growing fast). Neural networks, followed by random forests and support vector machines, were identified as the most applied methods encompassing 40% of publications, of which 67% related to deep neural network with long short-term memory predominance. Notwithstanding, there is no robust approach (no one reported optimal performance over different case tests) that works best for every problem. We finally conclude the research in this area is moving fast to gather a separate focused analysis over the last two years (whenever stable implementations will appear)

Diagnostic and prognostic analysis tools for monitoring degradation in aged structures

This research addresses the problem of prolonging the life of aged structures of historical value that have already outlived their original designed lives many times. While a lot of research has been carried out in the field of structural monitoring, diagnostics and prognostics for high tech industries, this is not the case for historical aged structures. Currently most maintenance projects for aged structures have focused on the instrumentation and diagnostic techniques required to detect any damage with a certain degree of success. This research project involved the development of diagnostic and prognostic tools to be used for monitoring and predicting the ‘health’ of aged structures. The diagnostic and prognostic tools have been developed for the monitoring of Cutty Sark iron structures as a first application. The concept of canary and parrot sensor devices are developed where canary devices are small, accelerated devices, which will fail according to similar failure mechanisms occurring in an aged structures and parrot devices are designed to fail at the same rate as the structure, thus mimicking the structure. The model-driven prognostic tool uses a Physics-of-Failure (PoF) model to predict remaining life of a structure. It uses a corrosion model based on the decrease in corrosion rate over time to predict remaining life of an aged iron structures. The data-driven diagnostic tool developed uses Mahalanobis Distance analysis to detect anomalies in the behaviour of a structure. Bayesian Network models are then used as a fusion method, integrating remaining life predictions from the model-driven prognostic tool with information of possible anomalies from data-driven diagnostic tool to provide a probability distribution of predicted remaining life. The diagnostics and prognostic tools are validated and tested through demonstration example and experimental tests. This research primarily looks at applying diagnostic and prognostic technologies used in high-tech industries to aged iron structures. In order to achieve this, the model-driven and data-driven techniques commonly used had to be adapted taking into consideration the particular constraints of monitoring and maintaining aged structures. The fusion technique developed is a novel approach for prognostics for aged structures and provides the flexibility often needed for diagnostic and prognostic tools

Predictive Modeling for Intelligent Maintenance in Complex Semiconductor Manufacturing Processes.

Semiconductor fabrication is one of the most complicated manufacturing processes, in which the current prevailing maintenance practices are preventive maintenance, using either time-based or wafer-based scheduling strategies, which may lead to the tools being either “over-maintained” or “under-maintained”. In literature, there rarely exists condition-based maintenance, which utilizes machine conditions to schedule maintenance, and almost no truly predictive maintenance that assesses remaining useful lives of machines and plans maintenance actions proactively. The research presented in this thesis is aimed at developing predictive modeling methods for intelligent maintenance in semiconductor manufacturing processes, using the in-process tool performance as well as the product quality information. In order to achieve an improved maintenance decision-making, a method for integrating data from different domains to predict process yield is proposed. The self-organizing maps have been utilized to discretize continuous data into discrete values, which will tremendously reduce the computational cost of Bayesian network learning process that can discover the stochastic dependences among process parameters and product quality. This method enables one to make more proactive product quality prediction that is different from traditional methods based on solely inspection results. Furthermore, a method of using observable process information to estimate stratified tool degradation levels has been proposed. Single hidden Markov model (HMM) has been employed to represent the tool degradation process under a single recipe; and the concatenation of multiple HMMs can be used to model the tool degradation under multiple recipes. To validate the proposed method, a simulation study has been conducted, which shows that HMMs are able to model the stratified unobservable degradation process under variable operating conditions. This method enables one to estimate the condition of in-chamber particle contamination so that maintenance actions can be initiated accordingly. With these two novel methods, a methodological framework to perform better maintenance in complex manufacturing processes is established. The simulation study shows that the maintenance cost can be reduced by performing predictive maintenance properly while highest possible yield is retained. This framework provides a possibility of using abundant equipment monitoring data and product quality information to coordinate maintenance actions in a complex manufacturing environment.Ph.D.Mechanical EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/58530/1/yangliu_1.pd