自然に学ぶ知的アルゴリズムによる最適化及び予測問題に関する研究

富山大学・富理工博甲第147号・劉燕婷・2018/09/28富山大学201

Bio-inspired optimization in integrated river basin management

Water resources worldwide are facing severe challenges in terms of quality and quantity. It is essential to conserve, manage, and optimize water resources and their quality through integrated water resources management (IWRM). IWRM is an interdisciplinary field that works on multiple levels to maximize the socio-economic and ecological benefits of water resources. Since this is directly influenced by the river’s ecological health, the point of interest should start at the basin-level. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the application of bio-inspired optimization techniques in integrated river basin management (IRBM). This study demonstrates the application of versatile, flexible and yet simple metaheuristic bio-inspired algorithms in IRBM. In a novel approach, bio-inspired optimization algorithms Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) are used to spatially distribute mitigation measures within a basin to reduce long-term annual mean total nitrogen (TN) concentration at the outlet of the basin. The Upper Fuhse river basin developed in the hydrological model, Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE), is used as a case study. ACO and PSO are coupled with the HYPE model to distribute a set of measures and compute the resulting TN reduction. The algorithms spatially distribute nine crop and subbasin-level mitigation measures under four categories. Both algorithms can successfully yield a discrete combination of measures to reduce long-term annual mean TN concentration. They achieved an 18.65% reduction, and their performance was on par with each other. This study has established the applicability of these bio-inspired optimization algorithms in successfully distributing the TN mitigation measures within the river basin. Stakeholder involvement is a crucial aspect of IRBM. It ensures that researchers and policymakers are aware of the ground reality through large amounts of information collected from the stakeholder. Including stakeholders in policy planning and decision-making legitimizes the decisions and eases their implementation. Therefore, a socio-hydrological framework is developed and tested in the Larqui river basin, Chile, based on a field survey to explore the conditions under which the farmers would implement or extend the width of vegetative filter strips (VFS) to prevent soil erosion. The framework consists of a behavioral, social model (extended Theory of Planned Behavior, TPB) and an agent-based model (developed in NetLogo) coupled with the results from the vegetative filter model (Vegetative Filter Strip Modeling System, VFSMOD-W). The results showed that the ABM corroborates with the survey results and the farmers are willing to extend the width of VFS as long as their utility stays positive. This framework can be used to develop tailor-made policies for river basins based on the conditions of the river basins and the stakeholders' requirements to motivate them to adopt sustainable practices. It is vital to assess whether the proposed management plans achieve the expected results for the river basin and if the stakeholders will accept and implement them. The assessment via simulation tools ensures effective implementation and realization of the target stipulated by the decision-makers. In this regard, this dissertation introduces the application of bio-inspired optimization techniques in the field of IRBM. The successful discrete combinatorial optimization in terms of the spatial distribution of mitigation measures by ACO and PSO and the novel socio-hydrological framework using ABM prove the forte and diverse applicability of bio-inspired optimization algorithms

Short-term plasticity as cause-effect hypothesis testing in distal reward learning

Asynchrony, overlaps and delays in sensory-motor signals introduce ambiguity as to which stimuli, actions, and rewards are causally related. Only the repetition of reward episodes helps distinguish true cause-effect relationships from coincidental occurrences. In the model proposed here, a novel plasticity rule employs short and long-term changes to evaluate hypotheses on cause-effect relationships. Transient weights represent hypotheses that are consolidated in long-term memory only when they consistently predict or cause future rewards. The main objective of the model is to preserve existing network topologies when learning with ambiguous information flows. Learning is also improved by biasing the exploration of the stimulus-response space towards actions that in the past occurred before rewards. The model indicates under which conditions beliefs can be consolidated in long-term memory, it suggests a solution to the plasticity-stability dilemma, and proposes an interpretation of the role of short-term plasticity.Comment: Biological Cybernetics, September 201

Developmental Bootstrapping of AIs

Although some current AIs surpass human abilities in closed artificial worlds such as board games, their abilities in the real world are limited. They make strange mistakes and do not notice them. They cannot be instructed easily, fail to use common sense, and lack curiosity. They do not make good collaborators. Mainstream approaches for creating AIs are the traditional manually-constructed symbolic AI approach and generative and deep learning AI approaches including large language models (LLMs). These systems are not well suited for creating robust and trustworthy AIs. Although it is outside of the mainstream, the developmental bootstrapping approach has more potential. In developmental bootstrapping, AIs develop competences like human children do. They start with innate competences. They interact with the environment and learn from their interactions. They incrementally extend their innate competences with self-developed competences. They interact and learn from people and establish perceptual, cognitive, and common grounding. They acquire the competences they need through bootstrapping. However, developmental robotics has not yet produced AIs with robust adult-level competences. Projects have typically stopped at the Toddler Barrier corresponding to human infant development at about two years of age, before their speech is fluent. They also do not bridge the Reading Barrier, to skillfully and skeptically draw on the socially developed information resources that power current LLMs. The next competences in human cognitive development involve intrinsic motivation, imitation learning, imagination, coordination, and communication. This position paper lays out the logic, prospects, gaps, and challenges for extending the practice of developmental bootstrapping to acquire further competences and create robust, resilient, and human-compatible AIs.Comment: 102 pages, 29 figure

Backwards is the way forward: feedback in the cortical hierarchy predicts the expected future

Clark offers a powerful description of the brain as a prediction machine, which offers progress on two distinct levels. First, on an abstract conceptual level, it provides a unifying framework for perception, action, and cognition (including subdivisions such as attention, expectation, and imagination). Second, hierarchical prediction offers progress on a concrete descriptive level for testing and constraining conceptual elements and mechanisms of predictive coding models (estimation of predictions, prediction errors, and internal models)