A Note on Natural Risk Statistics

Recently Heyde, Kou and Peng (2007) proposed the notion of a natural risk statistic associated with a finite sample that relaxes the subadditivity assumption in the classical coherent risk statistics. In this note we use convex analysis to provide alternate proofs of the representation results regarding natural risk statistics

Information Aggregation in Exponential Family Markets

We consider the design of prediction market mechanisms known as automated market makers. We show that we can design these mechanisms via the mold of \emph{exponential family distributions}, a popular and well-studied probability distribution template used in statistics. We give a full development of this relationship and explore a range of benefits. We draw connections between the information aggregation of market prices and the belief aggregation of learning agents that rely on exponential family distributions. We develop a very natural analysis of the market behavior as well as the price equilibrium under the assumption that the traders exhibit risk aversion according to exponential utility. We also consider similar aspects under alternative models, such as when traders are budget constrained

Distributional inference

The making of statistical inferences in distributional form is conceptionally complicated because the epistemic 'probabilities' assigned are mixtures of fact and fiction. In this respect they are essentially different from 'physical' or 'frequency-theoretic' probabilities. The distributional form is so attractive and useful, however, that it should be pursued. Our approach is In line with Walds theory of statistical decision functions and with Lehmann's books about hypothesis testing and point estimation: loss functions are defined, risk functions are studied, unbiasedness and equivariance restrictions are made, etc. A central theme is that the loss function should be 'proper'. This fundamental concept has been explored by meteorologists, psychometrists, Bayesian statisticians, and others. The paper should be regarded as an attempt to reconcile various schools of statisticians. By accepting what we regard 88 good and useful in the various approaches we are trying to develop a nondogmatic approach

Export diversification and resource-based industrialization: the case of natural gas

For resource-rich economies, primary commodity specialization has often been considered to be detrimental to growth. Accordingly, export diversification policies centered on resource-based industries have long been advocated as effective ways to moderate the large variability of export revenues. This paper discusses the applicability of a mean-variance portfolio approach to design these strategies and proposes some modifications aimed at capturing the key features of resource processing industries (presence of scale economies and investment lumpiness). These modifications help make the approach more plausible for use in resource-rich countries. An application to the case of natural gas is then discussed using data obtained from Monte Carlo simulations of a calibrated empirical model. Lastly, the proposed framework is put to work to evaluate the performances of the diversification strategies implemented in a set of nine gas-rich economies. These results are then used to formulate some policy recommendations

Cost of sovereign debt and foreign bias in bond allocations

Finance theory suggests that markets where foreign bond portfolio investors overweight their portfolio relative to the prescribed theoretical benchmark should experience higher international risk sharing. Correspondingly, the cost of debt in such markets should be lower compared to markets facing a lower degree of international risk sharing. We empirically examine this prediction using a panel data set of sovereign bond yield spreads and a measure of suboptimal foreign bond portfolio allocations for 50 emerging and ten developed markets. Consistent with theory, our results show higher levels of foreign bond allocations – relative to the theoretical benchmark – are negatively related to the cost of debt. These results have important policy implications as a country’s cost of debt could potentially be lowered by encouraging foreign portfolio investors to hold their optimal allocation

The 2011 Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis: evidence of contagion from international financial markets

Natural disasters may inflict significant damage upon international financial markets. Using 33 international stock indexes and exchange rates, this paper examines if any contagion occurred across financial markets after the March 11, 2011 Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis. Using heteroscedasticity biases based on correlation coefficients, findings reveal that: while no sampled foreign exchange market suffered from contagion, stock markets of Taiwan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and South Africa witnessed a contagion effect. Our results have two paramount implications. Firstly, we have confirmed existing consensus that in the face of natural crises that could take an international scale, emerging markets are contagiously affected for the most part. Secondly, we have also shown that international financial market transmissions not only occur during financial crisis; natural disaster effects should not be undermined.