Interval Certitude Rule Base Inference Method using the Evidential Reasoning

Development of rule-based systems is an important research area for artificial intelligence and decision making, as rule base is one of the most general purpose forms for expressing human knowledge. In this paper, a new rule-based representation and its inference method based on evidential reasoning are presented based on operational research and fuzzy set theory. In this rule base, the uncertainties of human knowledge and human judgment are designed with interval certitude degrees which are embedded in the antecedent terms and consequent terms. The knowledge representation and inference framework offer an improvement of the recently developed rule base inference method, and the evidential reasoning approach is still applied to the rule fusion. It is noteworthy that the uncertainties will be defined and modeled using interval certitude degrees. In the end, an illustrative example is provided to illustrate the proposed knowledge representation and inference method as well as demonstrate its effectiveness by comparing with some existing approaches

Reply to the note on article "The evidential reasoning approach for multiple attribute decision analysis using interval belief degrees"

In a very recent note by Gao and Ni [B. Gao, M.F. Ni, A note on article "The evidential reasoning approach for multiple attribute decision analysis using interval belief degrees", European Journal of Operational Research, in press, doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2007.10.0381], they argued that Yen's combination rule [J. Yen, Generalizing the Dempster-Shafer theory to fuzzy sets, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics 20 (1990) 559-570], which normalizes the combination of multiple pieces of evidence at the end of the combination process, was incorrect. If this were the case, the nonlinear programming models we proposed in [Y.M. Wang, J.B. Yang, D.L. Xu, K.S. Chin, The evidential reasoning approach for multiple attribute decision analysis using interval belief degrees, European Journal of Operational Research 175 (2006) 35-66] would also be incorrect. In this reply to Gao and Ni, we re-examine their numerical illustrations and reconsider their analysis of Yen's combination rule. We conclude that Yen's combination rule is correct and our nonlinear programming models are valid.Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence Combination and normalization of evidence The evidential reasoning approach Multiple attribute decision analysis Interval belief degree

A note on article "The evidential reasoning approach for multiple attribute decision analysis using interval belief degrees"

Wang et al. use an evidential reasoning approach for solving multiple attribute decision analysis (MADA) problems under interval belief degrees [Y.M. Wang, J.B. Yang, D.L. Xu, K.S. Chin, The evidential reasoning approach for multiple attribute decision analysis using interval belief degrees, European Journal of Operational Research 175 (2006) 35-66]. In this note it is shown some nonlinear optimization models in that paper are incorrect. The necessary corrections are proposed.Multiple attribute decision analysis The evidential reasoning approach Interval degrees of belief Nonlinear optimization

Development of a multi-criteria assessment tool to choose between housing systems for the low cost housing market

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is well known that South Africa has a major housing backlog and that the population is growing every year. Consequently, more people are left homeless, without the finances to acquire a minimum standard house. The official backlog in 2012 was defined as 2.1 million units, of which 1.1 million households lived in informal settlements in South Africa. The purpose of this study is to develop a multi-criteria assessment tool that will help a developer to choose between housing systems that can be used in low cost housing developments. Essentially, the tool will aid a developer to allocate funding more appropriately and effectively to develop sustainable communities. The research followed a procedure of identifying challenges experienced in the low cost housing industry, identifying the important factors to consider when assessing low cost housing systems and finally selecting a multi-criteria decision-making model to select a system. The important factors that need to be considered for this study were gathered from literature and industry experience through using the interviewing technique for data collection. The factors identified will be assessed using the multi-criteria decision-making model, called the Evidential Reasoning Approach. This study focuses on housing systems as a whole. Specific attention is given to walling systems, but not to other elements such as the foundations and roofs. The primary factors identified are cost, time, quality, environmental performance, density, alteration capability, resource availability and additional features. These factors were then used to develop a userfriendly assessment tool for choosing between housing systems for the low cost housing market. In conclusion this assessment tool will be available to public and private role players who intend to develop a low cost housing settlement. However, this assessment tool has some imperfections. These are discussed at the end of this study and show how they influence this model.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is algemeen bekend dat Suid-Afrika „n groot behuisings agterstand het en dat die bevolking jaarlikse groei. Die amptelike behuisings agterstand in 2012 was gedefinieer as 2.1 miljoen eenhede, waarvan meer as 1.1 miljoen van hierdie huishoudings in informele nedersettings in Suid-Afrika geleë is. Die doel van hierdie studie is dus om „n mulit-kriteria assesserings instrument te ontwikkel wat „n ontwikkelaar sal help om tussen behuisings sisteme te kies, wat vir lae koste behuising ontwikkelings gebruik kan word. Gevolglik , sal hierdie instrument „n ontwikkelaar help om befondsing meer toepaslik toe te ken en om doeltreffende en volhoubare gemeenskappe te ontwikkel. Die navorsings prosedure het begin deur uidagings in die lae koste behuising bedryf te identifiseer, asook die belangrike faktore wat oorweeg moet word as behuisings stelsels beoordeel moet word. „n Multi-kriteria besluitnemings model is gekies wat toepaslik is op hierdie studie. Die belangrike faktore wat in ag geneem moet word, is geïdentifiseer deur literatuur, en industrie ondervinding, deur gebruik te maak van onderhoude om data in te samel. Die kriteria wat geïdentifiseer is sal beoordeel word met behulp van die multi-kriteria besluitnemings model, naamlik Evidential Reasoning Approach. Die kriteria wat gebuik is in hierdie studie het gefokus op die behuisings stelsel as ʼn geheel. Alhoewel spesifieke aandag gegee is aan die mure van die stelsels was ander elemente, soos die dakke en fondamente nie bespreek nie. Die primêre faktore wat geïdentifiseer is, is koste, tyd, kwaliteit, omgewings werkverrigting, digtheid, aanbouings vermoë, beskikbaarheid van hulpbronne en bykomende funksies. Hierdie faktore word gebruik om „n keuse te maak tussen behuisings stelsels vir die gebruik vin die lae koste behuising mark. Die faktore word voorgestel as „n gebruikers vriendelike assesserings instrument. Ten slotte behoort hierdie assesserings intrument beskikbaar te wees aan oopenbare en private belangstellendes wat beoog om „n lae kost behuising nedersetting te ontwikkel. Hierdie assesserings instrument het wel „n paar tekortkomming, wat aan die enide van die studie bespreek word, asook hoe hierdie terkortkomming die model kan beïnvloed

The level of adoption of analytical tools

This PhD thesis is focused on disclosing features that might cause the increase in the use of analytical tools for better decision making. The theoretical part of this research is developed in two phases. At first, an exhaustive literature review was conducted with the purpose of identifying the main features in companies that impact positively the adoption of new analytical tools. This review brought our attention in four key drivers which were the foundation of the theoretical model: management support on data analysis, data-based competitive advantage, systemic thinking and communication outside the company. Secondly, a scale was proposed for classifying companies according with how its analytical capabilities are developed. The theoretical model and scale required to be validated with data from the real world. Four constructs derived from the model were operationalized in 17 items. An extensive statistical research related with the agreement, convergence, test-retest reliability and factor structure of the dimensions was conducted. Results allowed us to ascertain that our instrument is reliable and valid. Then, the questionnaire was sent to companies located in Barcelona area. The central part of the research analyzes data obtained from the companies. At first, the statistical engineering, which is interpreted as the link between the statistical thinking (the strategic management) and methods (the day-to-day operations), was adapted as guideline. A set of seven statistical tools were wisely assembled in a sequential order and relevant conclusions were obtained. Later, it was necessary to validate our preliminary conclusions with additional research and make them more robust. A second approach was utilized with this purpose. The evidential reasoning, which is a type of multi criteria decision analysis method, was implemented. Two different approaches lead us to similar results. At this phase of the thesis unstructured and soft features about the analytical practices were still missing. A complementary approach was needed to include aspects as personal values, beliefs and motivations and identify how they influence on analytical practices of the companies. The laddering methodology was utilized for these purposes. It is defined as a type of in-depth interview that is applied to understand how individuals transform attributes of any given concept into meaningful associations with respect to themselves. Consider this analogy; the data from questionnaires gave us "the picture of forest", then in-depth interviews yielded "the picture of the three". The last part of the thesis is reserved to provide guidelines to companies interested on increasing their analytical capabilities. Here it is offered a road map composed of five stages. The proposed order is: A company receive its diagnostic and is given a stage in the road map, later guidelines are provided to move the company upwards into the scale. The sequence of diagnostic-guidelines-diagnostic should be repeated until the company reach the highest level in the scale: analytics as competitive advantage. At the end of the thesis are presented two sets of values and attributes which were found decisive for increasing the adoption of analytical tools. In the first set, three values: honesty, serving the society and leadership impact the statistical thinking (the strategic level) in the company, whereas three attributes: the goal setting, creativity and information from outside are acting on the statistical methods (the operational level). The statistical engineering (the tactical level) establish a link between strategic and operational levels. All the tools and methods developed in this thesis, including the questionnaire, the scale for ranking the companies, the script for in-depth interviews, the road map for moving upward to higher levels in the scale and its related guidelines, represent an original and helpful toolkit for improving the analytical capabilities in companies

Freight transport modal choice in North West England's Atlantic Gateway

Overuse of the road network has led to greater levels of congestion, elevated levels of road surface wear and tear and an increase in transport related air pollution. When taken in combination with the failure of attempts to balance modal split the road network’s continuing slide towards breaking point seems to be beyond question. However, circumstances have conspired to present one particular region of England with a tabula rasa for the development of new policies to influence the modal split of freight transportation. England’s economy is currently based around a London-centric model. The current move towards developing what has become known as a Northern Powerhouse is aimed at rebalancing the economy of the nation for the betterment of all of its citizens. The Atlantic Gateway is an integral part of these efforts. The devolution of powers and responsibilities from national government to regional authorities may provide an opportunity for positive change the likes of which has not be seen in the North of England since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Different regions are influenced by their own geographical and infrastructure constraints. Devolution ensures that decisions are made locally and are therefore more able to meet local needs. A greater understanding of what influences modal choice within the Atlantic Gateway allows local policy makers to make better informed decisions on how to accommodate the increasing levels of freight transportation on the existing local transport infrastructure. Two different multi-criteria decision making analysis tools are utilised in this study. The first model uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the weights of a range of criteria identified as influencing modal choice. The second model combines AHP with the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to allow the modes of transport under consideration to be ranked. This AHP-TOPSIS approach was adopted to address the limited data made available by the freight transportation industry in support of this research and the inadequacy of the data which is publicly available from mainstream sources. With billions of Pounds having been spent over many years to balance modal split it was disappointing to find that today, in the North West of England, road is still, by far, the preferred mode for transporting freight. The margin by which road leads the other modes within this geographical region shows the degree to which modal shift policy has so far failed. It also shows the amount of work needed to be done if modal shift is to be delivered in the future