GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning

Anticipation and preparedness for large-scale flood events have a key role in mitigating their impact and optimizing the strategic planning of water resources. Although several developed countries have well-established systems for river monitoring and flood early warning, figures of population affected every year by floods in developing countries are unsettling. This paper presents the Global Flood Awareness System, which has been set up to provide an overview on upcoming floods in large world river basins. The Global Flood Awareness System is based on distributed hydrological simulation of numerical ensemble weather predictions with global coverage. Streamflow forecasts are compared statistically to climatological simulations to detect probabilistic exceedance of warning thresholds. In this article, the system setup is described, together with an evaluation of its performance over a two-year test period and a qualitative analysis of a case study for the Pakistan flood, in summer 2010. It is shown that hazardous events in large river basins can be skilfully detected with a forecast horizon of up to 1 month. In addition, results suggest that an accurate simulation of initial model conditions and an improved parameterization of the hydrological model are key components to reproduce accurately the streamflow variability in the many different runoff regimes of the Earth.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen

Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade

Global flood hazard maps can be used in the assessment of flood risk in a number of different applications, including (re)insurance and large scale flood preparedness. Such global hazard maps can be generated using large scale physically based models of rainfall-runoff and river routing, when used in conjunction with a number of post-processing methods. In this study, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land surface model is coupled to ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorological forcing data, and resultant runoff is passed to a river routing algorithm which simulates floodplains and flood flow across the global land area. The global hazard map is based on a 30 yr (1979–2010) simulation period. A Gumbel distribution is fitted to the annual maxima flows to derive a number of flood return periods. The return periods are calculated initially for a 25×25 km grid, which is then reprojected onto a 1×1 km grid to derive maps of higher resolution and estimate flooded fractional area for the individual 25×25 km cells. Several global and regional maps of flood return periods ranging from 2 to 500 yr are presented. The results compare reasonably to a benchmark data set of global flood hazard. The developed methodology can be applied to other datasets on a global or regional scale

Catching a planet: A tidal capture origin for the exomoon candidate Kepler 1625b I

The (yet-to-be confirmed) discovery of a Neptune-sized moon around the ~3.2 Jupiter-mass planet in Kepler 1625 puts interesting constraints on the formation of the system. In particular, the relatively wide orbit of the moon around the planet, at ~40 planetary radii, is hard to reconcile with planet formation theories. We demonstrate that the observed characteristics of the system can be explained from the tidal capture of a secondary planet in the young system. After a quick phase of tidal circularization, the lunar orbit, initially much tighter than 40 planetary radii, subsequently gradually widened due to tidal synchronization of the spin of the planet with the orbit, resulting in a synchronous planet-moon system. Interestingly, in our scenario the captured object was originally a Neptune-like planet, turned into a moon by its capture.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJL. 7 pages, 5 figure

Revealing viral and cellular dynamics of HIV-1 at the single-cell level during early treatment periods

While combination therapy completely suppresses HIV-1 replication in blood, functional virus persists in CD4$^{+}$ T cell subsets in non-peripheral compartments that are not easily accessible. To fill this gap, we investigated tissue-homing properties of cells that transiently appear in the circulating blood. Through cell separation and in vitro stimulation, the HIV-1 "Gag and Envelope reactivation co-detection assay" (GERDA) enables sensitive detection of Gag+/Env+ protein-expressing cells down to about one cell per million using flow cytometry. By associating GERDA with proviral DNA and polyA-RNA transcripts, we corroborate the presence and functionality of HIV-1 in critical body compartments utilizing t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (tSNE) and density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) clustering with low viral activity in circulating cells early after diagnosis. We demonstrate transcriptional HIV-1 reactivation at any time, potentially giving rise to intact, infectious particles. With single-cell level resolution, GERDA attributes virus production to lymph-node-homing cells with central memory T cells (T$_{CM}$s) as main players, critical for HIV-1 reservoir eradication

T Cells Contain an RNase-Insensitive Inhibitor of APOBEC3G Deaminase Activity

The deoxycytidine deaminase APOBEC3G (A3G) is expressed in human T cells and inhibits HIV-1 replication. When transfected into A3G-deficient epithelial cell lines, A3G induces catastrophic hypermutation by deaminating the HIV-1 genome. Interestingly, studies suggest that endogenous A3G in T cells induces less hypermutation than would be expected. However, to date, the specific deaminase activity of endogenous A3G in human CD4+ T cells has not been examined directly. Here, we compared deaminase activity of endogenous and exogenous A3G in various human cell lines using a standard assay and a novel, quantitative, high-throughput assay. Exogenous A3G in epithelial cell lysates displayed deaminase activity only following RNase treatment, as expected given that A3G is known to form an enzymatically inactive RNA-containing complex. Surprisingly, comparable amounts of endogenous A3G from T cell lines or from resting or activated primary CD4+ T cells exhibited minimal deaminase activity, despite RNase treatment. Specific deaminase activity of endogenous A3G in H9, CEM, and other T cell lines was up to 36-fold lower than specific activity of exogenous A3G in epithelial-derived cell lines. Furthermore, RNase-treated T cell lysates conferred a dose-dependent inhibition to epithelial cell lysates expressing enzymatically active A3G. These studies suggest that T cells, unlike epithelial-derived cell lines, express an unidentified RNase-resistant factor that inhibits A3G deaminase activity. This factor could be responsible for reduced levels of hypermutation in T cells, and its identification and blockade could offer a means for increasing antiretroviral intrinsic immunity of T cells

Optimizing sequencing protocols for leaderboard metagenomics by combining long and short reads.

As metagenomic studies move to increasing numbers of samples, communities like the human gut may benefit more from the assembly of abundant microbes in many samples, rather than the exhaustive assembly of fewer samples. We term this approach leaderboard metagenome sequencing. To explore protocol optimization for leaderboard metagenomics in real samples, we introduce a benchmark of library prep and sequencing using internal references generated by synthetic long-read technology, allowing us to evaluate high-throughput library preparation methods against gold-standard reference genomes derived from the samples themselves. We introduce a low-cost protocol for high-throughput library preparation and sequencing

1875-76 Xavier University Course Catalog

https://www.exhibit.xavier.edu/coursecatalog/1030/thumbnail.jp

Predicting the movements of permanently installed electrodes on an active landslide using time-lapse geoelectrical resistivity data only

If electrodes move during geoelectrical resistivity monitoring and their new positions are not incorporated in the inversion, then the resulting tomographic images exhibit artefacts that can obscure genuine time-lapse resistivity changes in the subsurface. The effects of electrode movements on time-lapse resistivity tomography are investigated using a simple analytical model and real data. The correspondence between the model and the data is sufficiently good to be able to predict the effects of electrode movements with reasonable accuracy. For the linear electrode arrays and 2D inversions under consideration, the data are much more sensitive to longitudinal than transverse or vertical movements. Consequently the model can be used to invert the longitudinal offsets of the electrodes from their known baseline positions using only the time-lapse ratios of the apparent resistivity data. The example datasets are taken from a permanently installed electrode array on an active lobe of a landslide. Using two sets with different levels of noise and subsurface resistivity changes, it is found that the electrode positions can be recovered to an accuracy of 4 % of the baseline electrode spacing. This is sufficient to correct the artefacts in the resistivity images, and provides for the possibility of monitoring the movement of the landslide and its internal hydraulic processes simultaneously using electrical resistivity tomography only