Gaussian process surrogates for failure detection: a Bayesian experimental design approach

An important task of uncertainty quantification is to identify {the probability of} undesired events, in particular, system failures, caused by various sources of uncertainties. In this work we consider the construction of Gaussian {process} surrogates for failure detection and failure probability estimation. In particular, we consider the situation that the underlying computer models are extremely expensive, and in this setting, determining the sampling points in the state space is of essential importance. We formulate the problem as an optimal experimental design for Bayesian inferences of the limit state (i.e., the failure boundary) and propose an efficient numerical scheme to solve the resulting optimization problem. In particular, the proposed limit-state inference method is capable of determining multiple sampling points at a time, and thus it is well suited for problems where multiple computer simulations can be performed in parallel. The accuracy and performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by both academic and practical examples

Bounds on mutual information of mixture data for classification tasks

The data for many classification problems, such as pattern and speech recognition, follow mixture distributions. To quantify the optimum performance for classification tasks, the Shannon mutual information is a natural information-theoretic metric, as it is directly related to the probability of error. The mutual information between mixture data and the class label does not have an analytical expression, nor any efficient computational algorithms. We introduce a variational upper bound, a lower bound, and three estimators, all employing pair-wise divergences between mixture components. We compare the new bounds and estimators with Monte Carlo stochastic sampling and bounds derived from entropy bounds. To conclude, we evaluate the performance of the bounds and estimators through numerical simulations

Demystifying Fixed k-Nearest Neighbor Information Estimators

Estimating mutual information from i.i.d. samples drawn from an unknown joint density function is a basic statistical problem of broad interest with multitudinous applications. The most popular estimator is one proposed by Kraskov and St\"ogbauer and Grassberger (KSG) in 2004, and is nonparametric and based on the distances of each sample to its $k^{\rm th}$ nearest neighboring sample, where $k$ is a fixed small integer. Despite its widespread use (part of scientific software packages), theoretical properties of this estimator have been largely unexplored. In this paper we demonstrate that the estimator is consistent and also identify an upper bound on the rate of convergence of the bias as a function of number of samples. We argue that the superior performance benefits of the KSG estimator stems from a curious "correlation boosting" effect and build on this intuition to modify the KSG estimator in novel ways to construct a superior estimator. As a byproduct of our investigations, we obtain nearly tight rates of convergence of the $\ell_2$ error of the well known fixed $k$ nearest neighbor estimator of differential entropy by Kozachenko and Leonenko.Comment: 55 pages, 8 figure