15,177 research outputs found
Customer churn prediction in telecom using machine learning and social network analysis in big data platform
Customer churn is a major problem and one of the most important concerns for
large companies. Due to the direct effect on the revenues of the companies,
especially in the telecom field, companies are seeking to develop means to
predict potential customer to churn. Therefore, finding factors that increase
customer churn is important to take necessary actions to reduce this churn. The
main contribution of our work is to develop a churn prediction model which
assists telecom operators to predict customers who are most likely subject to
churn. The model developed in this work uses machine learning techniques on big
data platform and builds a new way of features' engineering and selection. In
order to measure the performance of the model, the Area Under Curve (AUC)
standard measure is adopted, and the AUC value obtained is 93.3%. Another main
contribution is to use customer social network in the prediction model by
extracting Social Network Analysis (SNA) features. The use of SNA enhanced the
performance of the model from 84 to 93.3% against AUC standard. The model was
prepared and tested through Spark environment by working on a large dataset
created by transforming big raw data provided by SyriaTel telecom company. The
dataset contained all customers' information over 9 months, and was used to
train, test, and evaluate the system at SyriaTel. The model experimented four
algorithms: Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Machine Tree "GBM"
and Extreme Gradient Boosting "XGBOOST". However, the best results were
obtained by applying XGBOOST algorithm. This algorithm was used for
classification in this churn predictive model.Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures. PDF https://rdcu.be/budK
Propensity Score Analysis with Matching Weights
The propensity score analysis is one of the most widely used methods for
studying the causal treatment effect in observational studies. This paper
studies treatment effect estimation with the method of matching weights. This
method resembles propensity score matching but offers a number of new features
including efficient estimation, rigorous variance calculation, simple
asymptotics, statistical tests of balance, clearly identified target population
with optimal sampling property, and no need for choosing matching algorithm and
caliper size. In addition, we propose the mirror histogram as a useful tool for
graphically displaying balance. The method also shares some features of the
inverse probability weighting methods, but the computation remains stable when
the propensity scores approach 0 or 1. An augmented version of the matching
weight estimator is developed that has the double robust property, i.e., the
estimator is consistent if either the outcome model or the propensity score
model is correct. In the numerical studies, the proposed methods demonstrated
better performance than many widely used propensity score analysis methods such
as stratification by quintiles, matching with propensity scores, and inverse
probability weighting
SMOTE for Learning from Imbalanced Data: Progress and Challenges, Marking the 15-year Anniversary
The Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) preprocessing algorithm is
considered \de facto" standard in the framework of learning from imbalanced data. This
is due to its simplicity in the design of the procedure, as well as its robustness when applied
to di erent type of problems. Since its publication in 2002, SMOTE has proven
successful in a variety of applications from several di erent domains. SMOTE has also inspired
several approaches to counter the issue of class imbalance, and has also signi cantly
contributed to new supervised learning paradigms, including multilabel classi cation, incremental
learning, semi-supervised learning, multi-instance learning, among others. It is
standard benchmark for learning from imbalanced data. It is also featured in a number of
di erent software packages | from open source to commercial. In this paper, marking the
fteen year anniversary of SMOTE, we re
ect on the SMOTE journey, discuss the current
state of a airs with SMOTE, its applications, and also identify the next set of challenges
to extend SMOTE for Big Data problems.This work have been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology
under projects TIN2014-57251-P, TIN2015-68454-R and TIN2017-89517-P; the Project
887 BigDaP-TOOLS - Ayudas Fundaci on BBVA a Equipos de Investigaci on Cient ca 2016;
and the National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant IIS-1447795
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