Priority Ranking of Critical Uncertainties Affecting Small-Disturbance Stability Using Sensitivity Analysis Techniques

This paper critically evaluates a number of sensitivity analysis (SA) techniques to identify the most influential parameters affecting power system small-disturbance stability. SA of uncertain parameters has attracted increased attention with the adoption of deregulated market structure, intermittent energy resources, and new types of loads. Identification of the most influential parameters affecting system stability using SA techniques will facilitate better operation and control with reduced monitoring (only of the parameters of interest) by system operators and stakeholders. In total, nine SA techniques have been described, implemented, and compared in this paper. These can be categorized into three different types: local, screening, and global SA. This comparative analysis highlights their computational complexity and simulation time. The methods have been illustrated using a two-area power system and 68 bus NETS-NYPS test system. The priority ranking of all uncertain parameters has been evaluated, identifying the most critical parameters with respect to the small-signal stability of the test systems. It is shown that for many applications, the Morris screening approach is most suitable, providing a good balance between accuracy and efficiency

A decomposition-based uncertainty quantification approach for environmental impacts of aviation technology and operation

As a measure to manage the climate impact of aviation, significant enhancements to aviation technologies and operations are necessary. When assessing these enhancements and their respective impacts on the climate, it is important that we also quantify the associated uncertainties. This is important to support an effective decision and policymaking process. However, such quantification of uncertainty is challenging, especially in a complex system that comprises multiple interacting components. The uncertainty quantification task can quickly become computationally intractable and cumbersome for one individual or group to manage. Recognizing the challenge of quantifying uncertainty in multicomponent systems, we utilize a divide-and-conquer approach, inspired by the decomposition-based approaches used in multidisciplinary analysis and optimization. Specifically, we perform uncertainty analysis and global sensitivity analysis of our multicomponent aviation system in a decomposition-based manner. In this work, we demonstrate how to handle a high-dimensional multicomponent interface using sensitivity-based dimension reduction and a novel importance sampling method. Our results demonstrate that the decomposition-based uncertainty quantification approach can effectively quantify the uncertainty of a feed-forward multicomponent system for which the component models are housed in different locations and owned by different groups. Keywords: Aviation Environmental Impact; Decomposition; Global Sensitivity Analysis; Uncertainty Quantificatio

Fighting the curse of sparsity: probabilistic sensitivity measures from cumulative distribution functions

Quantitative models support investigators in several risk analysis applications. The calculation of sensitivity measures is an integral part of this analysis. However, it becomes a computationally challenging task, especially when the number of model inputs is large and the model output is spread over orders of magnitude. We introduce and test a new method for the estimation of global sensitivity measures. The new method relies on the intuition of exploiting the empirical cumulative distribution function of the simulator output. This choice allows the estimators of global sensitivity measures to be based on numbers between 0 and 1, thus fighting the curse of sparsity. For density-based sensitivity measures, we devise an approach based on moving averages that bypasses kernel-density estimation. We compare the new method to approaches for calculating popular risk analysis global sensitivity measures as well as to approaches for computing dependence measures gathering increasing interest in the machine learning and statistics literature (the Hilbert–Schmidt independence criterion and distance covariance). The comparison involves also the number of operations needed to obtain the estimates, an aspect often neglected in global sensitivity studies. We let the estimators undergo several tests, first with the wing-weight test case, then with a computationally challenging code with up to k = 30, 000 inputs, and finally with the traditional Level E benchmark code

Virtual process for evaluating the influence of real combined module variations on the overall performance of an aircraft engine

The effects of real combined variances in components and modules of aero engines, due to production tolerances or deterioration, on the performance of an aircraft engine are analysed in a knowledge-based process. For this purpose, an aero-thermodynamic virtual evaluation process that combines physical and probabilistic models to determine the sensitivities in the local module aerodynamics and the global overall performance is developed. Therefore, an automatic process that digitises, parameterises, reconstructs and analyses the geometry automatically using the example of a real turbofan high-pressure turbine blade is developed. The influence on the local aerodynamics of the reconstructed blade is investigated via a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The results of the high-pressure turbine (HPT) CFD as well as of a Gas-Path-Analysis for further modules, such as the com-pressors and the low-pressure turbine, are transferred into a simulation of the performance of the whole aircraft engine to evaluate the overall performance. All results are used to train, validate and test several deep learning architectures. These metamodels are utilised for a global sensitivity analysis that is able to evaluate the sensitivities and interactions. On the one hand, the results show that the aerodynamics (especially the efficiency ηHPT and capacity _mHPT)are particularly driven by the variation of the stagger angle. On the other hand, ηHPT is significantly related to exhaust gas temperature (Tt5), while specific fuel consumption (SFC) and mass flow _mHPT are related to HPC exit temperature (Tt3). However, it can be seen that the high-pressure compressor has the most significant impact on the overall performance. This novel knowledge-based approach can accurately determine the impact of component variances on overall performance and complement experience-based approaches

Impact assessment modelling of the matter-less stressors in the context of Life Cycle Assessment

In the last three decades, the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) framework has grown to establish itself as the leading tool for the assessment of the environmental impacts of product systems.LCA studies are now conducted globally both in and outside the academia and also used as a basis for policy making.Now that the science behind existing and established impact assessment models is more solid, LCA modellers may work on deepening and broadening LCA, and on tackling the issues that make the framework incomplete or uncertain.This work of thesis deals with the complete modelling of stressors that are not related to the standard extraction/emission pattern, thus that do not relate to the extraction of a certain quantity of matter or to the emission of matter to the environment.These stressors may be defined in this acceptation as matter-less.The thesis analyses the development of impact assessment models for the case of sound emissions determining noise impacts, radio-frequency electromagnetic emissions leading to electromagnetic pollution, and light emissions determining ecological light pollution.Through the study of these matter-less stressors the computational structure and other methodological topics of the LCA framework are put to the test.Industrial Ecolog

Surrogate-based uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for bacterial invasion in multi-species biofilm modeling

In this work, we present a probabilistic analysis of a detailed one-dimensional biofilm model that explicitly accounts for planktonic bacterial invasion in a multi-species biofilm. The objective is (1) to quantify and understand how the uncertainty in the parameters of the invasion submodel impacts the biofilm model predictions (here the microbial species volume fractions); and (2) to spot which parameters are the most important factors enhancing the biofilm model response. An emulator (or “surrogate”) of the biofilm model is trained using a limited experimental design of size N=216 and corresponding to a Halton’s low-discrepancy sequence in order to optimally cover the uncertain space of dimension d=3 (corresponding to the three scalar parameters newly introduced in the invasion submodel). A comparison of different types of emulator (generalized Polynomial Chaos expansion – gPC, Gaussian process model – GP) is carried out; results show that the best performance (measured in terms of the Q2 predictive coefficient) is obtained using a Least-Angle Regression (LAR) gPC-type expansion, where a sparse polynomial basis is constructed to reduce the problem size and where the basis coordinates are computed using a regularized least-square minimization. The resulting LAR gPC-expansion is found to capture the growth in complexity of the biofilm structure due to niche formation. Sobol’ sensitivity indices show the relative prevalence of the maximum colonization rate of autotrophic bacteria on biofilm composition in the invasion submodel. They provide guidelines for orienting future sensitivity analysis including more sources of variability, as well as further biofilm model developments.BERC 2014-2017 (Basque Government); BCAM Severo Ochoa accreditation SEV-2013-0323 (Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness MINECO); PhD Grant "La Caixa 2014" (La Caixa Foundation)

Reliability-based design of offshore structures for oil and gas applications

Offshore structures are complex in their structural and functional form and operate in a harsh and uncertain environment with complex interactions between ocean variables. Consequently, the ocean environment presents a high risk to these structures hence the need to develop an efficient and reliable design. Therefore, the need for a design that effectively: captures complex ocean parameter interactions, reduces the computational burden in structural response determination, quantifies the structure's ability to bounce back when faced with disruptive events, and minimizes cost under uncertainty at the desired safety levels of the asset is critical. A robust offshore structural design under uncertainty is essential for the safety of life, asset, and the environment during oil and gas exploration and production activities. This thesis presents improved methods for the effective reliability-based design of offshore structures. First, a framework is developed to capture the dependency of multivariate environmental ocean variables using vine copula and its impact on the reliability assessment of offshore structural systems. The model was tested using a cantilever beam and applied to an offshore jacket structure. The comparative results from the jacket structure and cantilever problem reveals that failure probability considering dependence between ocean variables is closer to the reference value than when variables are independent or modeled with a Gaussian copula. The outcome shows the importance of capturing nonlinearity and tail dependence between ocean variables in reliability evaluation. Secondly, the effectiveness of a hybrid metamodel, which is a combination of two commonly and independently used methods, Kriging and Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCE), is investigated for offshore structural response determination and reliability studies. The hybrid metamodel herein, called (APCKKm-MCS) is constructed from an adaptive process with multiple enrichment of Experimental Design (ED). The hybrid approach was tested on simple non-linear functions, a truss bar, and an offshore deepwater Steel Catenary Riser (SCR). The study's outcome revealed that APCKKm-MCS produced a high predictive response capacity, reduced model evaluation, and shorter computing time during reliability evaluation than the single enrichment case (APCK-MCS) and the adaptive ordinary Kriging case (AK-MCS) considered. In addition, a novel framework is developed for the resilience quantification of offshore structures in terms of their time-varying reliability, adaptability, and maintainability. The developed framework was demonstrated using an internally corroded pipeline segment subject to disruptive events of leak, burst, and rupture. The framework captured the resilience index of the natural gas pipeline for its design life, and its sensitivity analysis revealed the influence of the pipe wall thickness and corrosion depth growth rate on the resilience of the pipeline. The framework provides a quantitative approach to determine the resilience of offshore structures and ascertain their critical influencing parameters for effective decision-making. Finally, a methodology for optimal structural design under uncertainty considering the dependency of environmental variables with the implementation of a hybrid metamodel in the inner loop of a nested optimization problem is presented and demonstrated on a steel column function and a segmented SCR. The study showed different decision outcomes for various vine tree configurations in the dependence modeling for the steel column function noting the importance of choosing the appropriate variable order in the vine tree for optimal design under uncertainty. Also, the research reveals the suitability of adaptive PCK for the inner loop reliability phase for a double-loop structural optimization due to its high predictive capacity and observed relatively low cross-validation error. The method shows the importance of effective dependence modeling of environmental ocean variables in structural cost minimization and selecting optimal structural design variables under uncertainty. From the research outcomes, considering multivariate dependence between ocean variables using vine copula and utilizing multiple enrichment hybrid metamodels in response evaluation for reliability and optimal design assessment of offshore structures could better predict their failure probability and enhance a safer structural design. In addition, the resilience quantification framework developed provides a vital decision-making tool for offshore structural systems' design and integrity management. The research into high dimensional dependence modeling of offshore structures using vine copula, comparative study of sampling strategies required for the hybrid (Kriging and PCE) metamodel construction, dependence-based structural resilience quantification, and multiobjective dependence-based structural optimization under uncertainty are among areas proposed for future investigation