A Cuckoo Search Algorithm for Multimodal Optimization

Interest in multimodal optimization is expanding rapidly, since many practical engineering problems demand the localization of multiple optima within a search space. On the other hand, the cuckoo search (CS) algorithm is a simple and effective global optimization algorithm which can not be directly applied to solve multimodal optimization problems. This paper proposes a new multimodal optimization algorithm called the multimodal cuckoo search (MCS). Under MCS, the original CS is enhanced with multimodal capacities by means of (1) the incorporation of a memory mechanism to efficiently register potential local optima according to their fitness value and the distance to other potential solutions, (2) the modification of the original CS individual selection strategy to accelerate the detection process of new local minima, and (3) the inclusion of a depuration procedure to cyclically eliminate duplicated memory elements. The performance of the proposed approach is compared to several state-of-the-art multimodal optimization algorithms considering a benchmark suite of fourteen multimodal problems. Experimental results indicate that the proposed strategy is capable of providing better and even a more consistent performance over existing well-known multimodal algorithms for the majority of test problems yet avoiding any serious computational deterioration

Multivariate time series analysis for short-term forecasting of ground level ozone (O3) in Malaysia

The declining of air quality mostly affects the elderly, children, people with asthma, as well as a restriction on outdoor activities. Therefore, there is an importance to provide a statistical modelling to forecast the future values of surface layer ozone (O3) concentration. The objectives of this study are to obtain the best multivariate time series (MTS) model and develop an online air quality forecasting system for O3 concentration in Malaysia. The implementations of MTS model improve the recent statistical model on air quality for short-term prediction. Ten air quality monitoring stations situated at four (4) different types of location were selected in this study. The first type is industrial represent by Pasir Gudang, Perai, and Nilai, second type is urban represent by Kuala Terengganu, Kota Bharu, and Alor Setar. The third is suburban located in Banting, Kangar, and Tanjung Malim, also the only background station at Jerantut. The hourly record data from 2010 to 2017 were used to assess the characteristics and behaviour of O3 concentration. Meanwhile, the monthly record data of O3, particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), temperature (T), wind speed (WS), and relative humidity (RH) were used to examine the best MTS models. Three methods of MTS namely vector autoregressive (VAR), vector moving average (VMA), and vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA), has been applied in this study. Based on the performance error, the most appropriate MTS model located in Pasir Gudang, Kota Bharu and Kangar is VAR(1), Kuala Terengganu and Alor Setar for VAR(2), Perai and Nilai for VAR(3), Tanjung Malim for VAR(4) and Banting for VAR(5). Only Jerantut obtained the VMA(2) as the best model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized absolute error is 0.0053 and <0.0001 which is for MTS model in Perai and Kuala Terengganu, respectively. Meanwhile, for mean absolute error (MAE), the lowest is in Banting and Jerantut at 0.0013. The online air quality forecasting system for O3 was successfully developed based on the best MTS models to represent each monitoring station