34,728 research outputs found
A Bayesian approach to constrained single- and multi-objective optimization
This article addresses the problem of derivative-free (single- or
multi-objective) optimization subject to multiple inequality constraints. Both
the objective and constraint functions are assumed to be smooth, non-linear and
expensive to evaluate. As a consequence, the number of evaluations that can be
used to carry out the optimization is very limited, as in complex industrial
design optimization problems. The method we propose to overcome this difficulty
has its roots in both the Bayesian and the multi-objective optimization
literatures. More specifically, an extended domination rule is used to handle
objectives and constraints in a unified way, and a corresponding expected
hyper-volume improvement sampling criterion is proposed. This new criterion is
naturally adapted to the search of a feasible point when none is available, and
reduces to existing Bayesian sampling criteria---the classical Expected
Improvement (EI) criterion and some of its constrained/multi-objective
extensions---as soon as at least one feasible point is available. The
calculation and optimization of the criterion are performed using Sequential
Monte Carlo techniques. In particular, an algorithm similar to the subset
simulation method, which is well known in the field of structural reliability,
is used to estimate the criterion. The method, which we call BMOO (for Bayesian
Multi-Objective Optimization), is compared to state-of-the-art algorithms for
single- and multi-objective constrained optimization
Probabilistic Numerics and Uncertainty in Computations
We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for
numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and
solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their
calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by
numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much
contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science
and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with
large and complex data has led to a renewed focus on the management of
numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical
methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show
that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be
adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical
performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic
numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical
imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally,
we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework
for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of
numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimisers and differential equation
solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in
computations.Comment: Author Generated Postprint. 17 pages, 4 Figures, 1 Tabl
Sequential design of computer experiments for the estimation of a probability of failure
This paper deals with the problem of estimating the volume of the excursion
set of a function above a given threshold,
under a probability measure on that is assumed to be known. In
the industrial world, this corresponds to the problem of estimating a
probability of failure of a system. When only an expensive-to-simulate model of
the system is available, the budget for simulations is usually severely limited
and therefore classical Monte Carlo methods ought to be avoided. One of the
main contributions of this article is to derive SUR (stepwise uncertainty
reduction) strategies from a Bayesian-theoretic formulation of the problem of
estimating a probability of failure. These sequential strategies use a Gaussian
process model of and aim at performing evaluations of as efficiently as
possible to infer the value of the probability of failure. We compare these
strategies to other strategies also based on a Gaussian process model for
estimating a probability of failure.Comment: This is an author-generated postprint version. The published version
is available at http://www.springerlink.co
Statistical Mechanics of High-Dimensional Inference
To model modern large-scale datasets, we need efficient algorithms to infer a
set of unknown model parameters from noisy measurements. What are
fundamental limits on the accuracy of parameter inference, given finite
signal-to-noise ratios, limited measurements, prior information, and
computational tractability requirements? How can we combine prior information
with measurements to achieve these limits? Classical statistics gives incisive
answers to these questions as the measurement density . However, these classical results are not
relevant to modern high-dimensional inference problems, which instead occur at
finite . We formulate and analyze high-dimensional inference as a
problem in the statistical physics of quenched disorder. Our analysis uncovers
fundamental limits on the accuracy of inference in high dimensions, and reveals
that widely cherished inference algorithms like maximum likelihood (ML) and
maximum-a posteriori (MAP) inference cannot achieve these limits. We further
find optimal, computationally tractable algorithms that can achieve these
limits. Intriguingly, in high dimensions, these optimal algorithms become
computationally simpler than MAP and ML, while still outperforming them. For
example, such optimal algorithms can lead to as much as a 20% reduction in the
amount of data to achieve the same performance relative to MAP. Moreover, our
analysis reveals simple relations between optimal high dimensional inference
and low dimensional scalar Bayesian inference, insights into the nature of
generalization and predictive power in high dimensions, information theoretic
limits on compressed sensing, phase transitions in quadratic inference, and
connections to central mathematical objects in convex optimization theory and
random matrix theory.Comment: See http://ganguli-gang.stanford.edu/pdf/HighDimInf.Supp.pdf for
supplementary materia
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