Censoring the press: a barometer of government tolerance for anti-regime dissent under authoritarian rule

This paper proposes that dissident leaders aiming to build mass opposition movements follow the mainstream press to help them gauge government tolerance for anti-government mass actions in repressive authoritarian regimes. Under conditions of censorship, media-state interactions serve as a barometer of the government's disposition toward and capacity to impede public displays of dissent. Observing trends in coverage and the government's reaction to this coverage helps activist leaders assess when it should be safest to plan anti-government mass actions, such as demonstrations, marches, or strikes. Using original data derived from coding content from the Brazilian newspaper Folha de São Paulo over the period of 1974-1982, I test whether opposition mass actions followed trends in taboo content and government treatment of the press during the period of political liberalization of Brazil's military regime.Este artigo propõe que líderes políticos dissidentes que almejam estruturar movimentos de oposição em massa acompanham a imprensa ordinária de modo a contribuir com a avaliação da tolerância governamental à manifestações populares contra o Governo, em regimes autoritários repressivos. Sob condições de censura, as interações mídia-Estado servem como um barômetro da capacidade e disposição do Governo em impedir manifestações públicas oriundas de setores da oposição. As reportagens jornalísticas e as reações do Governo às mesmas são fontes que auxiliam os líderes opositores à avaliarem o momento mais prudente para planejar ações de massa antagônicas ao regime, tais como manifestações, marchas, e greves. A partir de dados originais derivados da codificação de conteúdo do jornal brasileiro Folha de São Paulo no período entre 1974-1982, examino se as ações populares da oposição acompanharam os padrões de conteúdo censurado, bem como o tratamento que o Governo deu à imprensa durante o período da redemocratização do Brasil, no fim do regime militar

Correlation between tidal volume measured by spirometry and impedance pneumography

In this study, an alternative method, impedance pneumography was used to measure the respiration volume. The respiration volume was measured both by using a conventional spirometer and an impedance pneumograph, and evaluated quantitatively in 17 subjects using linear and nonlinear regression algorithms. Data were collected from 17 normal, healthy subjects during rest and paced breathing conditions. A technique was developed to measure tidal volume by impedance pneumography. The respiration volume measured by the spirometer was correlated with the volume measured by the pneumograph. Different electrode positions and postures were included in the study to determine the position and posture which would yield optimum correlations. Correlations between the tidal volume measured by the spirometer and the tidal volume measured by the pneumograph, the rates of respiration (exhalation and inhalation widths), and the means and standard deviations of the exhalation ranges were computed. Results showed high correlations between the two techniques used. The position of the electrodes played a major role in affecting correlations. It was concluded that the posterior electrode position yielded relatively high correlations for the seated and standing postures and that the lateral position yielded good correlations for the supine posture, but further exploration is necessary to determine other factors which would influence the results

Politics of Price Stabilization: A Comparative Study of Argentina, Brazil, Israel, Mexico, and Turkey

Inflation was a common problem for developing countries in the 1970s and 1980s. From the beginning of the 21st century on, inflation is no longer as widespread as it used to be, but some few countries, like Turkey, continued to suffer from high inflation. Why have some developing countries become laggards in tackling the inflation problem, while most other countries stabilized their prices by 1990s? I argue that the answer can be found in socio-political factors as much as in economic factors. This dissertation strives to explain the persistence of inflation in developing countries with a socio-political approach. I suggest that persistent inflation cannot be explained solely by economic approaches. We also need to analyze the socio-political context of a country in order to understand why policymakers maintain inflationary policies and delay stabilization. This dissertation suggests that policymakers in some countries may experience greater difficulties in tackling inflation and face persistent inflation because of certain limitations, such as threats to national security, democracy, political instability, and proportional electoral system.This study compares the Turkish case with four other countries (Argentina, Brazil, Israel, and Mexico) to examine in detail whether and how social and political factors affect persistence of inflation. In addition to case studies, a statistical analysis of cross-national analysis is employed in order to get plausible explanations of persistent inflation. Many statistical analysis results support what is found in the case analyses. Findings suggest that international security concerns affect persistent inflation. High military expenses, which are necessary because of high threats to security, decrease the ability to eliminate inflation. Moreover, regime instability makes states less able to tackle the inflation problem and a consolidated democracy is the best political setting for price stabilization. Also, strong and stable governments are associated with less inflationary years. Electoral system and party system are relevant as well because they affect the strength and stability of the government. On the other hand, inequality and poverty do not seem to affect price stabilization

GIS and Health: Enhancing Disease Surveillance and Intervention through Spatial Epidemiology

The success of an evidence-based intervention depends on precise and accurate evaluation of available data and information. Here, the use of robust methods for evidence evaluation is important. Epidemiology, in its conventional form, relies on statistics and mathematics to draw inferences on disease dynamics in affected populations. Interestingly, most of the data used tend to have spatial aspects to them. However, most of these statistical and mathematical methods tend to either neglect these spatial aspects or consider them as artefacts, thereby biasing the resultant estimates. Thankfully, spatial methods allow for evidence evaluation and prediction in epidemiologic data while considering their inherent spatial characteristics. This, thus, promises more precise and accurate estimates.This thesis documents and illustrates the contribution spatial methods and spatial thinking makes to epidemiology through studies carried out in two countries with different heath-data quality realities, Uganda and Sweden. To be able to use spatial methods for epidemiology studies, proper spatial data need to be available, which is not the case in Uganda. Consequently, this study had two main aims: (1) It proposed and implemented a novel way of spatially-enabling patient registry systems in settings where the existing infrastructures do not allow for the collection of patient-level spatial details, prerequisites for fine-scale spatial analyses; (2) Where spatial data were available, spatial methods were used to study associative relationships between health outcomes and exposure factors. Spatial econometrics approaches, especially spatially autoregressive regression models were adopted. Also, consistent with location-specific epidemiologic intervention, the advantages of using spatial scan statistics, Geographically Weighted (Poisson) Regression and local entropy maps to distil model parameter estimates into their inherent spatial heterogeneities were illustrated. Our results illustrated that through the use of mobile and web technologies and leveraging on existing spatial data pools, systems that enable recording and storage of geospatially referenced patient records can be created. Also, spatial methods outperformed conventional statistical approaches, giving refined and more accurate parameter estimates. Finally, our study illustrates that the use of local spatial methods can inform policy and intervention better through the identification of areas with elevated disease burden or those areas worth additional scrutiny as illustrated by our study of HIV-TB coinfection areas in Uganda, the areas with high CVD-air pollution associations in Sweden, and areas with consistently high joint mortality burden for CVD and cancer among the Swedish elderly.Overall, the incorporation of spatial approaches and spatial thinking in epidemiology cannot be overemphasized. First, by enabling the capture of fine-scale personal-level spatial data, our study promises more robust analyses and seamless data integration. Secondly, associative analyses using spatial methods showed improved results. Thirdly, identification of the areas with elevated disease burden makes identifying the primary drivers of the observed local patterns more informed and focused. Ultimately, our results inform healthcare policy and strategic intervention as the most affected areas can easily be zoned out. Therefore, by illustrating these benefits, this study contributes to epidemiology, through spatial methods, especially in the aspects of disease surveillance, informing policy, and driving possible effective intervention

The effects of physical, biological and anthropogenic noise on the occurrence of dolphins in the Pacific region of the Panama Canal

The main aim of this thesis was to investigate the occurrence of dolphins in Pacific waters adjacent to the Panama Canal in the context of biological, temporal and spatial factors. Acoustic data were collected at 101 sites at a range of distances and depths from the shipping region. Data were collected between March 2010 and April 2011 in a diurnal cycle over a total of 114 recording days. Received sound levels were split into 1/3 Octave bandwidths to study variation in sound pressure levels and then converted to spectrum density levels to show the sound components of the background noise in this region. Generalised Linear Models were used to relate dolphin whistle detections to temporal, spatial, environmental and acoustic variables. The major sources of background noise were biological noise from soniferous fish and snapping shrimp and anthropogenic noise from vessels characterised by mid to high frequencies produced by artisanal fishing boats. There was monthly and diurnal variation with some locations characterised by loud sounds in the mid to high frequencies at night. Whistle characteristics analysis revealed that the frequencies and range of the whistles were different to those previously reported under similar conditions. Whistles varied diurnally and in the presence of fish chorus and fishing boats. The study highlights a strong correlation between fish choruses and whistle detection. Temporal and spatial models showed that whistle detections varied monthly and in relation to fish noise and small vessel engine noise. Dolphins were distributed throughout most of the study area; however, whistle detections varied with distance from the coast. The results provide new knowledge about background noise composition in this region and provide the first information on the ecology of dolphin whistles in relation to this background noise, especially to fish chorus

When fish are not poisson :modelling the migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and sea trout (Salmo trutta) at multiple time scales

PhD ThesisMigratory species undertake prolonged seasonal journeys; monitoring these movements is challenging but can sometimes be achieved by observations that taken locally and, ideally, using remote methods. Amongst the best known examples of migrating fish in Europe, are Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and sea trout (Salmo trutta) that migrate between river and seawater. Characteristics of habitat suitability, feeding opportunities, predation, as well as salmonid sensitivity and needs, vary throughout successive stages of their anadromous life cycle. Since the marine stage is the longest but is also challenging to monitor, in-river fish counters are of increasing importance in understanding salmonid patterns in abundance. The original contribution of this thesis lies in the use of modelling techniques to investigate salmonid migration, based on temporal observations produced by an electronic fish counter triggered by salmonid passage, as they return to spawn in the River Tyne. Small scale observation revealed seasonal differences; aggregation behaviour intensified during the middle of the migration season, and explanatory covariates varied in both their effect size and relevance to salmonid abundance. At the population scale, migration was highly driven by annual periodicity, abundance increased with river temperature and there was an NAO effect with a four year lag, underlining the importance of marine conditions to parent population and/or post-smolts. Differences between distinct populations of S. salar and S. trutta appeared related to a species-specific annual periodicity and oceanic conditions as salmonids return (more so for S. salar). State-space models suggested a complex demographic structure for the two species. There was a species identification learning curve that affected the data by 2007. A classification algorithm determined that observations are more likely to be S. salar for larger signal amplitude, within a higher river flow and earlier in the year; characteristics were too similar between the two species to reach a useful classification success rate (69%). The project overall suggests specificities relating to both species and age-class that cannot be addressed in depth with the collected data; emerging limitations and recommendations are discussed.Environment Agenc

Science in an age of globalisation : the geography of research collaboration and its effect on scientific publishing

Although scientific knowledge is considered by many a universal and context-free product, its producers are often embedded in geographically bounded networks of research collaboration. However, in an age of globalisation these local networks of knowledge production are challenged by pressures to make science more efficient and to align its priorities with problems of global relevance such as climate change and worldwide epidemics. Against this background, the dissertation sets out to examine changes in the contemporary geography of research collaboration and explores how these changes affect the publication of research findings in scientific journals. The dissertation starts with introducing a framework to understand how geographical space structures research collaboration among researchers. The two structuring principles in this framework are a logic of proximity that provides solutions for coordination problems in research practice, and a logic of stratification that provides researchers with differential means to engage in collaborations. The logic of proximity mainly follows from the importance of physical co-presence both for carrying out the complex tasks associated with scientific research and for establishing trust in research results. The logic of stratification is an outcome of the reward system in science which provides differential credit to researchers on the base of their past productivity. Globalisation affects these logics through technological advancements in ICTs and mobility, and through the harmonisation of research policies and practices across territories. It is hypothesised in this dissertation that these changes have implications for geographical patterns of research collaboration, and also for the way research findings are communicated in scientific publications. The empirical validation of this framework centers around two main themes that very much bear the imprint of globalisation in science. The first theme concerns the research policies of the European Union that are focused on the harmonisation of regional and national institutions in Europe in order to create an integrated ‘European Research Area’ (ERA) which should make the European research system more efficient and competitive. The Framework Programmes are explicitly designed to facilitate this integration process and in doing so they fund thousands of transnational research projects making it the largest transnational funding scheme in the world. Against this background, Chapter 2 evaluates the extent to which European research collaboration networks are already spatially integrated based on publication and patent data with multiple addresses. The results indicate that research collaborations in Europe are structured by geographical proximities as the choice for collaboration partners is impeded both by the kilometric distance between researchers and by national borders separating them. The chapter also presents some evidence that research collaboration networks are stratified on the base of similarity in productivity and access to resources. This logic of stratification operates irrespective of the location of researchers vis-à-vis each other. The main conclusion that follows from this analysis is that the present efforts towards the creation of ERA are well justified. The empirical study in Chapter 3 develops a dynamic approach to the geography of research collaboration by studying whether the logic of proximity is changing over time. The main argument of this chapter holds that one should make a conceptual distinction between a possible changing effect of geographical distance and a possible changing effect of territorial borders when studying proximity dynamics in research collaboration networks. When making such a distinction in the context of the European research system, the chapter shows that it is primarily the importance of regional and national borders that is decreasing over time, but that the role of geographical proximity in structuring research collaborations is remarkably stable. The findings indicate that globalisation in science is mainly realised through the harmonisation of territorial institutions, but that physical co-presence remains an important coordination device for exchanging complex forms of knowledge that cannot be easily communicated over large distances. The objective of Chapter 4 is to study to what extent the Framework Programmes (FPs), as the main funding instrument of the European Commission, are affecting the geography of European research collaboration. It is hypothesised that, in case the FPs indeed render territorial borders less important, they are likely to create (new) stratified networks of research collaboration that disproportionally consists of high-performance researchers located in Europe’s core regions. Contrary to the expectation no evidence for this hypothesis is found. The presented analysis indicates that the FPs indeed have a substantial effect on promoting international scientific collaboration networks which are still relatively uncommon in comparison to national collaboration networks. However, it is also shown that acquisition of FP funding is rather equally distributed over Europe and that the FPs are more effective in establishing ties between poorly connected researchers than in further strengthening existing ones. When stimulating already existing networks the FPs run the risk of being a substitute for other funding sources. This implies that current EU research policy is in line with the cohesion objective of the European Union. The second theme of this dissertation concerns the global standardization of medical experiments on human subjects. In recent years, proponents of an evidence-based medicine have pushed for standards concerning the conduct of clinical trials and subsequent publication of research findings in clinical trial registers and scientific publications. This standardization process is closely linked to an increase in the number and size of clinical trials that involve scientific researchers and patients from across the globe. The empirical chapters address whether this standardization process has an effect on several aspects of scientific publishing including the constitution of authorship on publications, the communication of evidence after study completion, and the presence of error in scientific publications. In order to analyse these questions, a database is created that links information on registered clinical trial projects (www.clinicaltrials.gov) to scientific publications of the main findings after study completion. Chapter 5 focuses in this respect on the standardization of good clinical practice (ICH-GCP) which has made the exchange of clinical data between geographically dispersed research sites less complicated. This has resulted in a process of global outsourcing with increasing enrolment of patients from emerging economies, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia. The chapter describes this globalisation tendency and studies whether worldwide patient involvement in clinical trials is reflected in the geographical composition of scientific management teams in those trials. The chapter develops an empirical strategy to determine the geographical distribution of management teams by using authorship data from publications reporting on primary outcomes. On the basis of this data it is shown that, given patient involvement, authorships are disproportionally granted to researchers in a few leading countries. The chapter discusses possible adverse consequences of this situation especially concerning the monitoring of clinical trial quality and (the lack of) interactions between researchers that are in immediate contact with patients and researchers that design trials and interpret their results. Chapter 6 concentrates on the publication behaviour of pharmaceutical companies who are well known for their strategy to withhold negative research findings from the scientific literature. To remedy this situation several authorities have recently mandated both registration of clinical trials before study onset and publication of major research findings after study completion. The main question holds under what conditions pharmaceutical companies decide to publish their clinical trial findings either in scientific journals or on the web. The main hypothesis is that under the new institutional context pharmaceutical companies will continue to highlight positive results in the scientific literature as it provides them with certification that their research findings are scientifically sound, methodologically rigourous and thus credible. Negative results, by contrast, are expected to be published on the web. This hypothesis is tested against a sample of clinical trials that assess the efficacy of glucose lowering agents in diabetes patients. The results indicate that firms continue to highlight positive results in scientific journals which results in an ongoing and persistent bias of evidence in the literature. Finally, Chapter 7 studies the production and detection of error in scientific publications on the basis of published errata and retractions. It is derived from earlier chapters that geographical proximity remains an important coordination device in research practice. This begs the question whether researchers operating in geographically dispersed research projects are also more likely to produce error because effective peer-control may be lacking and the establishment of mutual understanding hindered. The chapter addresses this question by making a conceptual distinction between modes of coordination that influence error production, and the prestige of research findings that influences error detection. With respect to prestige of research the chapter shows that editorial policies of scientific journals may actively steer the process of error detection by organising impact around particular findings and by enforcing strict publication guidelines. After controlling for these factors the analysis finds that geographically distributed research results in less accurate scientific publication. Globalisation tendencies thus put increasing responsibility on the publication system to correct errors in publications. Based on the findings of the empirical chapters, the overall conclusion of the dissertation is three-fold. The first conclusion holds that changes in the contemporary geography of research collaboration are mainly visible in institutional harmonisation across territories, rather than in a tendency towards a ‘death of distance’ per se. This paradoxical process provides new prospects for worldwide research collaborations, but limits at the same time the possibilities to make these prospects work in actual research practice. Second, the presented analysis indicates that in an age of globalisation, science does not become a global level playing field where chances of success level off. Rather, stratified structures are reproduced at different spatial scales via the creation of new reward systems and global research collaboration network that exhibit high entry barriers. Third, globalised science reveals new publication practices that concern authorship norms, the prevalence and correction of error in scientific publications and the conditions under which disclosure of research findings takes place. In this respect, new global contexts have often been cited as contributors to the quality, impact and practical application of research findings. The results presented here do not support the argument and at least point to some potential side-effects of geographically distributed research. These effects require a rethinking of science’s institutions in light of globalisation