Performance Bounds for Parameter Estimation under Misspecified Models: Fundamental findings and applications

Inferring information from a set of acquired data is the main objective of any signal processing (SP) method. In particular, the common problem of estimating the value of a vector of parameters from a set of noisy measurements is at the core of a plethora of scientific and technological advances in the last decades; for example, wireless communications, radar and sonar, biomedicine, image processing, and seismology, just to name a few. Developing an estimation algorithm often begins by assuming a statistical model for the measured data, i.e. a probability density function (pdf) which if correct, fully characterizes the behaviour of the collected data/measurements. Experience with real data, however, often exposes the limitations of any assumed data model since modelling errors at some level are always present. Consequently, the true data model and the model assumed to derive the estimation algorithm could differ. When this happens, the model is said to be mismatched or misspecified. Therefore, understanding the possible performance loss or regret that an estimation algorithm could experience under model misspecification is of crucial importance for any SP practitioner. Further, understanding the limits on the performance of any estimator subject to model misspecification is of practical interest. Motivated by the widespread and practical need to assess the performance of a mismatched estimator, the goal of this paper is to help to bring attention to the main theoretical findings on estimation theory, and in particular on lower bounds under model misspecification, that have been published in the statistical and econometrical literature in the last fifty years. Secondly, some applications are discussed to illustrate the broad range of areas and problems to which this framework extends, and consequently the numerous opportunities available for SP researchers.Comment: To appear in the IEEE Signal Processing Magazin

Lower Bounds on Exponential Moments of the Quadratic Error in Parameter Estimation

Considering the problem of risk-sensitive parameter estimation, we propose a fairly wide family of lower bounds on the exponential moments of the quadratic error, both in the Bayesian and the non--Bayesian regime. This family of bounds, which is based on a change of measures, offers considerable freedom in the choice of the reference measure, and our efforts are devoted to explore this freedom to a certain extent. Our focus is mostly on signal models that are relevant to communication problems, namely, models of a parameter-dependent signal (modulated signal) corrupted by additive white Gaussian noise, but the methodology proposed is also applicable to other types of parametric families, such as models of linear systems driven by random input signals (white noise, in most cases), and others. In addition to the well known motivations of the risk-sensitive cost function (i.e., the exponential quadratic cost function), which is most notably, the robustness to model uncertainty, we also view this cost function as a tool for studying fundamental limits concerning the tail behavior of the estimation error. Another interesting aspect, that we demonstrate in a certain parametric model, is that the risk-sensitive cost function may be subjected to phase transitions, owing to some analogies with statistical mechanics.Comment: 28 pages; 4 figures; submitted for publicatio

Recursive joint Cramér‐Rao lower bound for parametric systems with two‐adjacent‐states dependent measurements

Joint Cramér-Rao lower bound (JCRLB) is very useful for the performance evaluation of joint state and parameter estimation (JSPE) of non-linear systems, in which the current measurement only depends on the current state. However, in reality, the non-linear systems with two-adjacent-states dependent (TASD) measurements, that is, the current measurement is dependent on the current state as well as the most recent previous state, are also common. First, the recursive JCRLB for the general form of such non-linear systems with unknown deterministic parameters is developed. Its relationships with the posterior CRLB for systems with TASD measurements and the hybrid CRLB for regular parametric systems are also provided. Then, the recursive JCRLBs for two special forms of parametric systems with TASD measurements, in which the measurement noises are autocorrelated or cross-correlated with the process noises at one time step apart, are presented, respectively. Illustrative examples in radar target tracking show the effectiveness of the JCRLB for the performance evaluation of parametric TASD systems

Approximate Gaussian conjugacy: parametric recursive filtering under nonlinearity, multimodality, uncertainty, and constraint, and beyond

Since the landmark work of R. E. Kalman in the 1960s, considerable efforts have been devoted to time series state space models for a large variety of dynamic estimation problems. In particular, parametric filters that seek analytical estimates based on a closed-form Markov–Bayes recursion, e.g., recursion from a Gaussian or Gaussian mixture (GM) prior to a Gaussian/GM posterior (termed ‘Gaussian conjugacy’ in this paper), form the backbone for a general time series filter design. Due to challenges arising from nonlinearity, multimodality (including target maneuver), intractable uncertainties (such as unknown inputs and/or non-Gaussian noises) and constraints (including circular quantities), etc., new theories, algorithms, and technologies have been developed continuously to maintain such a conjugacy, or to approximate it as close as possible. They had contributed in large part to the prospective developments of time series parametric filters in the last six decades. In this paper, we review the state of the art in distinctive categories and highlight some insights that may otherwise be easily overlooked. In particular, specific attention is paid to nonlinear systems with an informative observation, multimodal systems including Gaussian mixture posterior and maneuvers, and intractable unknown inputs and constraints, to fill some gaps in existing reviews and surveys. In addition, we provide some new thoughts on alternatives to the first-order Markov transition model and on filter evaluation with regard to computing complexity

On particle filters in radar target tracking

The dissertation focused on the research, implementation, and evaluation of particle filters for radar target track filtering of a maneuvering target, through quantitative simulations and analysis thereof. Target track filtering, also called target track smoothing, aims to minimize the error between a radar target's predicted and actual position. From the literature it had been suggested that particle filters were more suitable for filtering in non-linear/non-Gaussian systems. Furthermore, it had been determined that particle filters were a relatively newer field of research relating to radar target track filtering for non-linear, non-Gaussian maneuvering target tracking problems, compared to the more traditional and widely known and implemented approaches and techniques. The objectives of the research project had been achieved through the development of a software radar target tracking filter simulator, which implemented a sequential importance re-sampling particle filter algorithm and suitable target and noise models. This particular particle filter had been identified from a review of the theory of particle filters. The theory of the more conventional tracking filters used in radar applications had also been reviewed and discussed. The performance of the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter for radar target track filtering had been evaluated through quantitative simulations and analysis thereof, using predefined metrics identified from the literature. These metrics had been the root mean squared error metric for accuracy, and the normalized processing time metric for computational complexity. It had been shown that the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter achieved improved accuracy performance in the track filtering of a maneuvering radar target in a non-Gaussian (Laplacian) noise environment, compared to a Gaussian noise environment. It had also been shown that the accuracy performance of the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter is a function of the number of particles used in the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter algorithm. The sequential importance re-sampling particle filter had also been compared to two conventional tracking filters, namely the alpha-beta filter and the Singer-Kalman filter, and had better accuracy performance in both cases. The normalized processing time of the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter had been shown to be a function of the number of particles used in the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter algorithm. The normalized processing time of the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter had been shown to be higher than that of both the alpha-beta filter and the Singer-Kalman filter. Analysis of the posterior Cramér-Rao lower bound of the sequential importance re-sampling particle filter had also been conducted and presented in the dissertation

Exploiting Sparse Structures in Source Localization and Tracking

This thesis deals with the modeling of structured signals under different sparsity constraints. Many phenomena exhibit an inherent structure that may be exploited when setting up models, examples include audio waves, radar, sonar, and image objects. These structures allow us to model, identify, and classify the processes, enabling parameter estimation for, e.g., identification, localisation, and tracking.In this work, such structures are exploited, with the goal to achieve efficient localisation and tracking of a structured source signal. Specifically, two scenarios are considered. In papers A and B, the aim is to find a sparse subset of a structured signal such that the signal parameters and source locations maybe estimated in an optimal way. For the sparse subset selection, a combinatorial optimization problem is approximately solved by means of convex relaxation, with the results of allowing for different types of a priori information to be incorporated in the optimization. In paper C, a sparse subset of data is provided, and a generative model is used to find the location of an unknown number of jammers in a wireless network, with the jammers’ movement in the network being tracked as additional observations become available

Caractérisation des performances minimales d'estimation pour des modèles d'observations non-standards

In the parametric estimation context, estimators performances can be characterized, inter alia, by the mean square error and the resolution limit. The first quantities the accuracy of estimated values and the second defines the ability of the estimator to allow a correct resolvability. This thesis deals first with the prediction the "optimal" MSE by using lower bounds in the hybrid estimation context (i.e. when the parameter vector contains both random and non-random parameters), second with the extension of Cramér-Rao bounds for non-standard estimation problems and finally to the characterization of estimators resolution. This manuscript is then divided into three parts :First, we fill some lacks of hybrid lower bound on the MSE by using two existing Bayesian lower bounds: the Weiss-Weinstein bound and a particular form of Ziv-Zakai family lower bounds. We show that these extended lower bounds are tighter than the existing hybrid lower bounds in order to predict the optimal MSE.Second, we extend Cramer-Rao lower bounds for uncommon estimation contexts. Precisely: (i) Where the non-random parameters are subject to equality constraints (linear or nonlinear). (ii) For discrete-time filtering problems when the evolution of states are defined by a Markov chain. (iii) When the observation model differs to the real data distribution.Finally, we study the resolution of the estimators when their probability distributions are known. This approach is an extension of the work of Oh and Kashyap and the work of Clark to multi-dimensional parameters estimation problems.Dans le contexte de l'estimation paramétrique, les performances d'un estimateur peuvent être caractérisées, entre autre, par son erreur quadratique moyenne (EQM) et sa résolution limite. La première quantifie la précision des valeurs estimées et la seconde définit la capacité de l'estimateur à séparer plusieurs paramètres. Cette thèse s'intéresse d'abord à la prédiction de l'EQM "optimale" à l'aide des bornes inférieures pour des problèmes d'estimation simultanée de paramètres aléatoires et non-aléatoires (estimation hybride), puis à l'extension des bornes de Cramér-Rao pour des modèles d'observation moins standards. Enfin, la caractérisation des estimateurs en termes de résolution limite est également étudiée. Ce manuscrit est donc divisé en trois parties :Premièrement, nous complétons les résultats de littérature sur les bornes hybrides en utilisant deux bornes bayésiennes : la borne de Weiss-Weinstein et une forme particulière de la famille de bornes de Ziv-Zakaï. Nous montrons que ces bornes "étendues" sont plus précises pour la prédiction de l'EQM optimale par rapport à celles existantes dans la littérature.Deuxièmement, nous proposons des bornes de type Cramér-Rao pour des contextes d'estimation moins usuels, c'est-à-dire : (i) Lorsque les paramètres non-aléatoires sont soumis à des contraintes d'égalité linéaires ou non-linéaires (estimation sous contraintes). (ii) Pour des problèmes de filtrage à temps discret où l'évolution des états (paramètres) est régit par une chaîne de Markov. (iii) Lorsque la loi des observations est différente de la distribution réelle des données.Enfin, nous étudions la résolution et la précision des estimateurs en proposant un critère basé directement sur la distribution des estimées. Cette approche est une extension des travaux de Oh et Kashyap et de Clark pour des problèmes d'estimation de paramètres multidimensionnels

Approximate Gaussian Conjugacy: Parametric Recursive Filtering Under Nonlinearity, Multimodal, Uncertainty, and Constraint, and Beyond

This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Frontiers of Information Technology & Electronic Engineering. The final authenticated version is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1631/FITEE.1700379Since the landmark work of R. E. Kalman in the 1960s, considerable efforts have been devoted to time series state space models for a large variety of dynamic estimation problems. In particular, parametric filters that seek analytical estimates based on a closed-form Markov–Bayes recursion, e.g., recursion from a Gaussian or Gaussian mixture (GM) prior to a Gaussian/GM posterior (termed ‘Gaussian conjugacy’ in this paper), form the backbone for a general time series filter design. Due to challenges arising from nonlinearity, multimodality (including target maneuver), intractable uncertainties (such as unknown inputs and/or non-Gaussian noises) and constraints (including circular quantities), etc., new theories, algorithms, and technologies have been developed continuously to maintain such a conjugacy, or to approximate it as close as possible. They had contributed in large part to the prospective developments of time series parametric filters in the last six decades. In this paper, we review the state of the art in distinctive categories and highlight some insights that may otherwise be easily overlooked. In particular, specific attention is paid to nonlinear systems with an informative observation, multimodal systems including Gaussian mixture posterior and maneuvers, and intractable unknown inputs and constraints, to fill some gaps in existing reviews and surveys. In addition, we provide some new thoughts on alternatives to the first-order Markov transition model and on filter evaluation with regard to computing complexity

AN INFORMATION THEORETIC APPROACH TO INTERACTING MULTIPLE MODEL ESTIMATION FOR AUTONOMOUS UNDERWATER VEHICLES

Accurate and robust autonomous underwater navigation (AUV) requires the fundamental task of position estimation in a variety of conditions. Additionally, the U.S. Navy would prefer to have systems that are not dependent on external beacon systems such as global positioning system (GPS), since they are subject to jamming and spoofing and can reduce operational effectiveness. Current methodologies such as Terrain-Aided Navigation (TAN) use exteroceptive imaging sensors for building a local reference position estimate and will not be useful when those sensors are out of range. What is needed are multiple navigation filters where each can be more effective depending on the mission conditions. This thesis investigates how to combine multiple navigation filters to provide a more robust AUV position estimate. The solution presented is to blend two different filtering methodologies utilizing an interacting multiple model (IMM) estimation approach based on an information theoretic framework. The first filter is a model-based Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) that is effective under dead reckoning (DR) conditions. The second is a Particle Filter approach for Active Terrain Aided Navigation (ATAN) that is appropriate when in sensor range. Using data collected at Lake Crescent, Washington, each of the navigation filters are developed with results and then we demonstrate how an IMM information theoretic approach can be used to blend approaches to improve position and orientation estimation.Lieutenant, United States NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited