Impact of noise on a dynamical system: prediction and uncertainties from a swarm-optimized neural network

In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) was developed for the time series prediction. The hybrid ANN+PSO algorithm was applied on Mackey--Glass chaotic time series in the short-term $x(t+6)$. The performance prediction was evaluated and compared with another studies available in the literature. Also, we presented properties of the dynamical system via the study of chaotic behaviour obtained from the predicted time series. Next, the hybrid ANN+PSO algorithm was complemented with a Gaussian stochastic procedure (called {\it stochastic} hybrid ANN+PSO) in order to obtain a new estimator of the predictions, which also allowed us to compute uncertainties of predictions for noisy Mackey--Glass chaotic time series. Thus, we studied the impact of noise for several cases with a white noise level ($\sigma_{N}$) from 0.01 to 0.1.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figure

Optimization of Evolutionary Neural Networks Using Hybrid Learning Algorithms

Evolutionary artificial neural networks (EANNs) refer to a special class of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in which evolution is another fundamental form of adaptation in addition to learning. Evolutionary algorithms are used to adapt the connection weights, network architecture and learning algorithms according to the problem environment. Even though evolutionary algorithms are well known as efficient global search algorithms, very often they miss the best local solutions in the complex solution space. In this paper, we propose a hybrid meta-heuristic learning approach combining evolutionary learning and local search methods (using 1st and 2nd order error information) to improve the learning and faster convergence obtained using a direct evolutionary approach. The proposed technique is tested on three different chaotic time series and the test results are compared with some popular neuro-fuzzy systems and a recently developed cutting angle method of global optimization. Empirical results reveal that the proposed technique is efficient in spite of the computational complexity

Chaotic Quantum Double Delta Swarm Algorithm using Chebyshev Maps: Theoretical Foundations, Performance Analyses and Convergence Issues

Quantum Double Delta Swarm (QDDS) Algorithm is a new metaheuristic algorithm inspired by the convergence mechanism to the center of potential generated within a single well of a spatially co-located double-delta well setup. It mimics the wave nature of candidate positions in solution spaces and draws upon quantum mechanical interpretations much like other quantum-inspired computational intelligence paradigms. In this work, we introduce a Chebyshev map driven chaotic perturbation in the optimization phase of the algorithm to diversify weights placed on contemporary and historical, socially-optimal agents' solutions. We follow this up with a characterization of solution quality on a suite of 23 single-objective functions and carry out a comparative analysis with eight other related nature-inspired approaches. By comparing solution quality and successful runs over dynamic solution ranges, insights about the nature of convergence are obtained. A two-tailed t-test establishes the statistical significance of the solution data whereas Cohen's d and Hedge's g values provide a measure of effect sizes. We trace the trajectory of the fittest pseudo-agent over all function evaluations to comment on the dynamics of the system and prove that the proposed algorithm is theoretically globally convergent under the assumptions adopted for proofs of other closely-related random search algorithms.Comment: 27 pages, 4 figures, 19 table