24,038 research outputs found
A neural network-based framework for financial model calibration
A data-driven approach called CaNN (Calibration Neural Network) is proposed
to calibrate financial asset price models using an Artificial Neural Network
(ANN). Determining optimal values of the model parameters is formulated as
training hidden neurons within a machine learning framework, based on available
financial option prices. The framework consists of two parts: a forward pass in
which we train the weights of the ANN off-line, valuing options under many
different asset model parameter settings; and a backward pass, in which we
evaluate the trained ANN-solver on-line, aiming to find the weights of the
neurons in the input layer. The rapid on-line learning of implied volatility by
ANNs, in combination with the use of an adapted parallel global optimization
method, tackles the computation bottleneck and provides a fast and reliable
technique for calibrating model parameters while avoiding, as much as possible,
getting stuck in local minima. Numerical experiments confirm that this
machine-learning framework can be employed to calibrate parameters of
high-dimensional stochastic volatility models efficiently and accurately.Comment: 34 pages, 9 figures, 11 table
Incorporating prior financial domain knowledge into neural networks for implied volatility surface prediction
In this paper we develop a novel neural network model for predicting implied
volatility surface. Prior financial domain knowledge is taken into account. A
new activation function that incorporates volatility smile is proposed, which
is used for the hidden nodes that process the underlying asset price. In
addition, financial conditions, such as the absence of arbitrage, the
boundaries and the asymptotic slope, are embedded into the loss function. This
is one of the very first studies which discuss a methodological framework that
incorporates prior financial domain knowledge into neural network architecture
design and model training. The proposed model outperforms the benchmarked
models with the option data on the S&P 500 index over 20 years. More
importantly, the domain knowledge is satisfied empirically, showing the model
is consistent with the existing financial theories and conditions related to
implied volatility surface.Comment: 8 pages, SIGKDD 202
Financial model calibration using consistency hints
We introduce a technique for forcing the calibration of a financial model to produce valid parameters. The technique is based on learning from hints. It converts simple curve fitting into genuine calibration, where broad conclusions can be inferred from parameter values. The technique augments the error function of curve fitting with consistency hint error functions based on the Kullback-Leibler distance. We introduce an efficient EM-type optimization algorithm tailored to this technique. We also introduce other consistency hints, and balance their weights using canonical errors. We calibrate the correlated multifactor Vasicek model of interest rates, and apply it successfully to Japanese Yen swaps market and US dollar yield market
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Soft computing in investment appraisal
Standard financial techniques neglect extreme situations and regards large market shifts as too unlikely to matter. Such approach accounts for what occurs most of the time in the market, but does not reflect the reality, as major events happen in the rest of the time and investors are ‘surprised’ by ‘unexpected’ market movements. An
alternative fuzzy approach permits fluctuations well beyond the probability type of uncertainty and allows one to make fewer assumptions about the data distribution and market behaviour.
Fuzzifying the present value criteria, we suggest a measure of the risk associated with each investment opportunity and estimate the project’s robustness towards market uncertainty. The procedure is applied to thirty-five UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange and a neural
network solution to the fuzzy criterion is provided to facilitate the decision-making process. Finally, we suggest a specific evolutionary algorithm to train a fuzzy neural net - the bidirectional incremental evolution will automatically identify the complexity of the problem and correspondingly adapt the parameters of the fuzzy network
Introduction to the special issue on neural networks in financial engineering
There are several phases that an emerging field goes through before it reaches maturity, and computational finance is no exception. There is usually a trigger for the birth of the field. In our case, new techniques such as neural networks, significant progress in computing technology, and the need for results that rely on more realistic assumptions inspired new researchers to revisit the traditional problems of finance, problems that have often been tackled by introducing simplifying assumptions in the past. The result has been a wealth of new approaches to these time-honored problems, with significant improvements in many cases
Pricing options and computing implied volatilities using neural networks
This paper proposes a data-driven approach, by means of an Artificial Neural
Network (ANN), to value financial options and to calculate implied volatilities
with the aim of accelerating the corresponding numerical methods. With ANNs
being universal function approximators, this method trains an optimized ANN on
a data set generated by a sophisticated financial model, and runs the trained
ANN as an agent of the original solver in a fast and efficient way. We test
this approach on three different types of solvers, including the analytic
solution for the Black-Scholes equation, the COS method for the Heston
stochastic volatility model and Brent's iterative root-finding method for the
calculation of implied volatilities. The numerical results show that the ANN
solver can reduce the computing time significantly
Uncertainty Quantification Using Neural Networks for Molecular Property Prediction
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular
property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model
predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision
wastes valuable time and resources. The need for UQ is especially acute for
neural models, which are becoming increasingly standard yet are challenging to
interpret. While several approaches to UQ have been proposed in the literature,
there is no clear consensus on the comparative performance of these models. In
this paper, we study this question in the context of regression tasks. We
systematically evaluate several methods on five benchmark datasets using
multiple complementary performance metrics. Our experiments show that none of
the methods we tested is unequivocally superior to all others, and none
produces a particularly reliable ranking of errors across multiple datasets.
While we believe these results show that existing UQ methods are not sufficient
for all common use-cases and demonstrate the benefits of further research, we
conclude with a practical recommendation as to which existing techniques seem
to perform well relative to others
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