Forecasting and Forecast Combination in Airline Revenue Management Applications

Predicting a variable for a future point in time helps planning for unknown future situations and is common practice in many areas such as economics, finance, manufacturing, weather and natural sciences. This paper investigates and compares approaches to forecasting and forecast combination that can be applied to service industry in general and to airline industry in particular. Furthermore, possibilities to include additionally available data like passenger-based information are discussed

BLOOD & THUNDER CLASSICS, VOL. 2

A MAGAZINE – A game of Chutes and Ladders – a network of pools connected by streams, rivulets, creeks and rivers. Concerns: aluminum, sculpture, film, an endless image or an image-object, cork, shoulders as the center of movement, archery, wicker, nystagmus, darkness or the penumbral near-darkness, constant movement, beer, tone, musical forms, bells, gongs, The Titanic, purple, black and white, indeterminacy, Ghostface, yodeling, John Smith, John Adams, David Hammons, Beyoncé, Honda CR-V’s, Har-khebi, Ahnighito, Hermann Doomer, Prince, Yvonne Rainer, perception, double rainbows, composers from Transylvania, Los Angeles, and chandeliers. “Everything is everything.” and “A woman is the first teacher.

Improving intrusion detection systems using data mining techniques

Recent surveys and studies have shown that cyber-attacks have caused a lot of damage to organisations, governments, and individuals around the world. Although developments are constantly occurring in the computer security field, cyber-attacks still cause damage as they are developed and evolved by hackers. This research looked at some industrial challenges in the intrusion detection area. The research identified two main challenges; the first one is that signature-based intrusion detection systems such as SNORT lack the capability of detecting attacks with new signatures without human intervention. The other challenge is related to multi-stage attack detection, it has been found that signature-based is not efficient in this area. The novelty in this research is presented through developing methodologies tackling the mentioned challenges. The first challenge was handled by developing a multi-layer classification methodology. The first layer is based on decision tree, while the second layer is a hybrid module that uses two data mining techniques; neural network, and fuzzy logic. The second layer will try to detect new attacks in case the first one fails to detect. This system detects attacks with new signatures, and then updates the SNORT signature holder automatically, without any human intervention. The obtained results have shown that a high detection rate has been obtained with attacks having new signatures. However, it has been found that the false positive rate needs to be lowered. The second challenge was approached by evaluating IP information using fuzzy logic. This approach looks at the identity of participants in the traffic, rather than the sequence and contents of the traffic. The results have shown that this approach can help in predicting attacks at very early stages in some scenarios. However, it has been found that combining this approach with a different approach that looks at the sequence and contents of the traffic, such as event- correlation, will achieve a better performance than each approach individually

A Presuppositional Critique of Constructivism

Educational theories have roots. They have roots in broader philosophies, conceptions of the nature of reality, and the theories utilized in classrooms to teach have implications for broader society. The author takes a presuppostitional view and shows that all systems have most basic beliefs that are un-provable. So at the heart of any form of interpretive schema or paradigm is faith in that schema. The author discusses the role of theories of truth, how fact-constructivism embraces a relativist position that is self-refuting, and ultimately is untenable absent a suspension of laws of logic. The author argues in favor of revelation from God as axiomatic and demonstrates how logic can exist on that basis, whereas on a secular basis, philosophy cannot generate any True facts whatsoever. The author then looks at the educational theory of constructivism and examines the theory and practices it endorses it in light of the presuppositional critique and concludes that the relativistic nature of constructivism precludes it from being a philosophically acceptable approach for the Christian

Generalized FLIC: Learning with Misclassification for Binary Classifiers

This work formally introduces a generalized fuzzy logic and interval clustering (FLIC) technique which, when integrated with existing supervised learning algorithms, improves their performance. FLIC is a method that was first integrated with neural network in order to improve neural network's performance in drug discovery using high throughput screening (HTS). This research strictly focuses on binary classification problems and generalizes the FLIC in order to incorporate it with other machine learning algorithms. In most binary classification problems, the class boundary is not linear. This pose a major problem when the number of outliers are significantly high, degrading the performance of the supervised learning function. FLIC identifies these misclassifications before the training set is introduced to the learning algorithm. This allows the supervised learning algorithm to learn more efficiently since it is now aware of those misclassifications. Although the proposed method performs well with most binary classification problems, it does significantly well for data set with high class asymmetry. The proposed method has been tested on four well known data sets of which three are from UCI Machine Learning repository and one from BigML. Tests have been conducted with three well known supervised learning techniques: Decision Tree, Logistic Regression and Naive Bayes. The results from the experiments show significant improvement in performance. The paper begins with a formal introduction to the core idea this research is based upon. It then discusses a list of other methods that have either inspired this research or have been referred to, in order to formalize the techniques. Subsequent sections discuss the methodology and the algorithm which is followed by results and conclusion

A novel Big Data analytics and intelligent technique to predict driver's intent

Modern age offers a great potential for automatically predicting the driver's intent through the increasing miniaturization of computing technologies, rapid advancements in communication technologies and continuous connectivity of heterogeneous smart objects. Inside the cabin and engine of modern cars, dedicated computer systems need to possess the ability to exploit the wealth of information generated by heterogeneous data sources with different contextual and conceptual representations. Processing and utilizing this diverse and voluminous data, involves many challenges concerning the design of the computational technique used to perform this task. In this paper, we investigate the various data sources available in the car and the surrounding environment, which can be utilized as inputs in order to predict driver's intent and behavior. As part of investigating these potential data sources, we conducted experiments on e-calendars for a large number of employees, and have reviewed a number of available geo referencing systems. Through the results of a statistical analysis and by computing location recognition accuracy results, we explored in detail the potential utilization of calendar location data to detect the driver's intentions. In order to exploit the numerous diverse data inputs available in modern vehicles, we investigate the suitability of different Computational Intelligence (CI) techniques, and propose a novel fuzzy computational modelling methodology. Finally, we outline the impact of applying advanced CI and Big Data analytics techniques in modern vehicles on the driver and society in general, and discuss ethical and legal issues arising from the deployment of intelligent self-learning cars

Recognition Situations Using Extended Dempster-Shafer Theory

Weiser’s [111] vision of pervasive computing describes a world where technology seamlessly integrates into the environment, automatically responding to peoples’ needs. Underpinning this vision is the ability of systems to automatically track the situation of a person. The task of situation recognition is critical and complex: noisy and unreliable sensor data, dynamic situations, unpredictable human behaviour and changes in the environment all contribute to the complexity. No single recognition technique is suitable in all environments. Factors such as availability of training data, ability to deal with uncertain information and transparency to the user will determine which technique to use in any particular environment. In this thesis, we propose the use of Dempster-Shafer theory as a theoretically sound basis for situation recognition - an approach that can reason with uncertainty, but which does not rely on training data. We use existing operations from Dempster-Shafer theory and create new operations to establish an evidence decision network. The network is used to generate and assess situation beliefs based on processed sensor data for an environment. We also define two specific extensions to Dempster-Shafer theory to enhance the knowledge that can be used for reasoning: 1) temporal knowledge about situation time patterns 2) quality of evidence sources (sensors) into the reasoning process. To validate the feasibility of our approach, this thesis creates evidence decision networks for two real-world data sets: a smart home data set and an officebased data set. We analyse situation recognition accuracy for each of the data sets, using the evidence decision networks with temporal/quality extensions. We also compare the evidence decision networks against two learning techniques: Naïve Bayes and J48 Decision Tree