A systematic review of empirical methods for modelling sectoral carbon emissions in China

© 2019 Elsevier Ltd A number of empirical methods have been developed to study China's sectoral carbon emissions (CSCE). Measuring these emissions is important for climate change mitigation. While several articles have reviewed specific methods, few attempts conduct a systematic analysis of all the major research methods. In total 807 papers were published on CSCE research between 1997 and 2017. The primary source of literature for this analysis was taken from the Web of Science database. Based on a bibliometric analysis using knowledge mapping with the software CiteSpace, the review identified five common families of methods: 1) environmentally-extended input-output analysis (EE-IOA), 2) index decomposition analysis (IDA), 3) econometrics, 4) carbon emission control efficiency evaluation and 5) simulation. The research revealed the main trends in each family of methods and has visualized this research into ten research clusters. In addition, the paper provides a direct comparison of all methods. The research results can help scholars quickly identify and compare different methods for addressing specific research questions

Cities: the core of climate change mitigation

Cities, the core of the global climate change mitigation and strategic low-carbon development, are shelters to more than half of the world population and responsible for three quarters of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG). This special volume (SV) provides a platform that promotes multi- and inter- disciplinary analyses and discussions on the climate change mitigation for cities. All papers are divided into four themes, including GHG emission inventory and accounting, climate change and urban sectors, climate change and sustainable development, and strategies and mitigation action plans. First, this SV provides methods for constructing emission inventory from both production and consumption perspectives. These methods are useful to improve the comprehensiveness and accuracy of carbon accounting for international cities. Second, the climate change affects urban sectors from various aspects; simultaneously, GHG emissions caused by activities in urban sectors affect the climate system. This SV focuses on mitigation policies and assessment of energy, transport, construction, and service sectors. Third, climate change mitigation of cities is closely connected to urban sustainable development. This SV explores the relationships between climate change mitigation with urbanization, ecosystems, air pollution, and extreme events. Fourth, climate change mitigation policies can be divided into two categories: quantity-based mechanism (e.g., carbon emission trading) and price-based mechanism (e.g., carbon tax). This SV provides experiences of local climate change mitigation all over the world and proposes the city-to-city cooperation on climate change mitigation

Urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Beijing: current and future

This paper calculates the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of Beijing over 2005–2011 in light of the Beijing’s energy balance table and the carbon emission coefficients of IPCC. Furthermore, based on a series of energy conservation planning program issued in Beijing, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)-BJ model is developed to study the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of Beijing’s six end-use sectors and the energy conversion sector over 2012–2030 under the BAU scenario and POL scenario. Some results are found in this research: (1) During 2005–2011, the energy consumption kept increasing, while the total CO2 emissions fluctuated obviously in 2008 and 2011. The energy structure and the industrial structure have been optimized to a certain extent. (2) If the policies are completely implemented, the POL scenario is projected to save 21.36 and 35.37 % of the total energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the BAU scenario during 2012 and 2030. (3) The POL scenario presents a more optimized energy structure compared with the BAU scenario, with the decrease of coal consumption and the increase of natural gas consumption. (4) The commerce and service sector and the energy conversion sector will become the largest contributor to energy consumption and CO2 emissions, respectively. The transport sector and the industrial sector are the two most potential sectors in energy savings and carbon reduction. In terms of subscenarios, the energy conservation in transport (TEC) is the most effective one. (5) The macroparameters, such as the GDP growth rate and the industrial structure, have great influence on the urban energy consumption and carbon emissions

Systematic Methods for the Design of Industrial Clusters with Capped Carbon Emissions

Hydrocarbon resource centric economies, such as Qatar, are highly vulnerable to the impact of climate policy. Climate policies could decrease demand of hydrocarbon, lowering prices and would force countries to adopt mitigation technologies. Thus, having a climate strategy is important to meet future constraints. This work develops approaches to enable policy makers to systematically explore alternative emissions reduction paths in an integrated framework. The methods introduced explore the element of time, resources management, Carbon Capture Utilization and Sequestration (CCUS) and energy integration including Renewable Energy (RE) use. The industrial city or cluster is taken as a system and modelled through balances and constraints, which were optimized applying deterministic solvers. Two approaches were developed. The first is a multi-period carbon planning approach that enables the assessment of different carbon dioxide reduction options, which may be applied to guiding transitions to a future target emission. Second is a systematic approach that enables the identification of economically optimal natural gas allocation in different conversion technologies under carbon emission targets with energy synergy. The multi-period planning approach identified allocation of carbon dioxide between sources and potential sinks in each period, compared cost elements simultaneously and resulted in a low cost network across all periods. Furthermore, the role of RE was investigated through a robust MILP. The results highlighted significant differences in economic impact of alternative footprint reduction policies. The systematic natural gas monetization approach simultaneously determined natural gas monetization and carbon dioxide management through CCUS as well as RE strategies. The method considered heat and power integration, enabling the assessment of the Natural gas (CH₄), CO₂ and Energy nexus. Several case studies were solved that indicated benefits of having optimized policies that screen all mitigation options given economic and environmental objectives out preformed adopted prescribed policies found around the globe

Challenges and gaps for energy planning models in the developing-world context

Energy planning models (EPMs) support multi-criteria assessments of the impact of energy policies on the economy and environment. Most EPMs have originated in developed countries and are primarily aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions while enhancing energy security. In contrast, most, if not all, developing countries are predominantly concerned with increasing energy access. Here, we review thirty-four widely used EPMs to investigate their applicability to developing countries and find an absence of consideration of the objectives, challenges, and nuances of the developing context. Key deficiencies arise from the lack of deliberation of the low energy demand resulting from lack of access and availability of supply. Other inadequacies include the lack of consideration of socio-economic nuances such as the prevalence of corruption and resulting cost inflation, the methods for adequately addressing the shortcomings in data quality, availability and adequacy, and the effects of climate change. We argue for further research on characterisation and modelling of suppressed demand, climate change impacts, and socio-political feedback in developing countries, and the development of contextual EPMs

Integrated economy - energy - environment policy analysis : a case study for the People's Republic of China

This study is the first systematic and comprehensive attempt to deal with the economic implications of carbon abatement for the Chinese economy in the light of the economics of climate change, of which this dissertation is the results. It consists of nine chapters. After a brief introduction, Chapter 2 discusses some economic aspects of climate change. This in turn will serve as a good guide to pursuing the case study for CO 2 emissions in China. Chapter 3 analyses the Chinese energy system in the CO 2 context. Chapter 4 discusses alternative economic modelling approaches to cost estimates for limiting CO 2 emissions. The purpose is to show the rationale for choosing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach for the macroeconomic analysis of CO 2 emission limits and linking such a CGE model of the Chinese economy with a power planning model of China's electricity sector. Chapter 5 presents a time-recursive dynamic CGE model of the Chinese economy. Chapter 6 deals with some essential work done for empirical application of the CGE model. Chapter 7 analyses the economywide impacts of alternative carbon limits for China through counterfactual policy simulations, while Chapter 8 analyses the impacts of compliance with CO 2 limits in China's power industry by means of a technology- oriented dynamic optimization model for power system expansion planning. Finally, Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this study and points out some areas where there is a need for further methodological and empirical work to enrich the policy relevance of the study.Analysis of the Chinese energy system: implications for future CO 2 emissionsAt present China contributes 11% of global CO 2 emissions. This means that China ranks second if the Soviet emissions are distributed over the new independent republics. Given the global characteristics of climate change and China's potential importance as a source Of CO 2 emissions, advocates of controlling CO 2 emissions call for substantial efforts in China. However, the Chinese authorities have argued that China cannot be expected to make a significant contribution to the carbon emission problem unless China receives substantial international aid for this purpose. This contrasts sharply with the wishes of proponents of controlling CO 2 emissions. Chapter 3 is devoted to explaining this difference in opinion by examining China's energy resources and their development, the Chinese energy consumption patterns, the achievements and remaining problems of electricity generation in China, China's energy conservation in an international perspective, historical CO 2 emissions in China, and environmental challenges for the Chinese energy system. At the same time, it sheds light on the implications for China's future CO 2 emissions.From examining these aspects, it has become clear that, driven by the threat of further degradation of the environment, great pressure on the severely congested railways, and the harmful economic effects of energy shortages, China is already determined to make great efforts towards energy conservation and enhanced energy efficiency in general, and towards using coal much more efficiently in particular. A number of policy measures, which have been and will continue to be implemented, have been outlined. They are the so-called 'noregrets' measures in the sense that they are taken without considering the greenhouse effect. These measures include increase in proportion of raw coal washed; retrofitting and replacement of small inefficient industrial boilers; substituting direct burning of coal by electricity through development of largesize, high-temperature and high-pressure efficient coal-fired power plants; speeding up hydropower exploitation; popularizing domestic use of coal briquette; increased penetration of town gas into urban households; expanding district heating systems; and relaxing restrictions on energy trade. Moreover, success in the implementation of these measures will largely depend on the extent to which a reform of China's energy pricing will be carried out. With respect to reducing CO 2 emissions, because the 'regrets' policies are often costly, 'getting prices right' and implementing these 'no-regrets' actions above should have priority over the imposition of a carbon tax. This suggests that the implementation of these measures will be accelerated if curbing global CO 2 emissions requires special action on China's part.While China makes such drastic efforts, fundamental reform of aid and loan practices also needs to be undertaken in the industrialized countries, so that bilateral and multilateral assistance be channelled less towards expanding energy supplies and more towards promoting energy efficiency improvements, thus reducing CO 2 emissions. Related to this, joint implementation projects for increased energy efficiency should be encouraged.Macroeconomic analysis of CO 2 emission limits for ChinaGiven that China is the world's most populous country and largest coal producer and consumer, its coal-dominated energy structure and carbon-intensive economy, and that carbon dioxide is the greatest contributor to global warming, its economic development and the resulting CO 2 emissions are of great concern. Chapter 4 argues that a CGE approach is generally considered an appropriate tool for analysing the economic impacts of limiting CO 2 emissions.For this purpose, a time-recursive dynamic CGE model of the Chinese economy has been developed. This model includes ten production sectors, distinguishes four energy inputs, and is made up of nine blocks. Moreover, the CGE model highlights the relationships between economic activity, energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. Thus, the model makes it possible to analyse the Chinese economy-energy-environment system interactions simultaneously, at both sectoral and macroeconomic levels. The model is also able to calculate the welfare impacts of carbon abatement policies. Furthermore, the CGE model incorporates an explicit tax system. This makes it suitable for estimating the 'double dividend' from the imposition of a carbon tax that is incorporated as a cost-effective means of limiting CO 2 emissions. Finally, the model is solved directly with a numerical solution technique included in GAMS.Using this CGE model, a baseline scenario for the Chinese economy has first been developed under a set of assumptions about the exogenous variables. Counterfactual policy simulations have then been carried out to compute the macroeconomic implications of two less restrictive scenarios, under which China's CO 2 emissions in 2010 will be cut by 20% and 30% respectively relative to the baseline, and to determine the efficiency improvement of four indirect tax offset scenarios relative to the tax retention scenarios. Finally, a comparison with other studies for China has been made. The following conclusions can be drawn.First, a rapid growth of the Chinese economy will take place until the year 2010. Consequently, this will lead to increased energy consumption and hence CO 2 emissions, despite substantial energy efficiency improvement. Second, large reductions in carbon emissions can only be achieved by ever-larger increases in carbon taxes and hence prices of fossil fuels. Third, the associated GNP and welfare losses tend to rise more sharply as the degree of the carbon emission reduction increases. Fourth, although aggregate gross production tends to decrease at an increasing rate as the carbon dioxide emission target becomes more stringent, changes in gross production vary significantly among sectors in both absolute and relative terms. This suggests that special attention should be paid to the sectoral implications when designing a domestic carbon tax. Fifth, although a change in level and structure of economic activity and a change in direct energy consumption by households play a role in reducing total energy consumption, lower energy input coefficients contribute to the bulk of energy reduction and hence CO 2 emissions. Sixth, the negative impacts of carbon taxes on GNP and welfare would be reduced if the carbon tax revenues were used to offset reductions in indirect taxes. Moreover, it would become more worthwhile to lower indirect taxes as the target of CO 2 emissions becomes more stringent. Seventh, our estimates of the reduction in GNP growth are higher than those by GLOBAL 2100 and GREEN in order to achieve the same reductions in CO 2 emissions relative to the baseline. Moreover, the carbon taxes required in China are much lower than those for both the industrialized countries and the world average. This suggests that the joint implementation mechanism as a preliminary step towards a global regime of tradeable carbon permits should be considered a means of reducing global CO 2 emissions effectively.Cost-effective analysis of carbon abatement options in China's electricity sectorChapter 8 attempts to shed light on technological aspects of carbon abatement in China's power industry and is thus devoted to satisfying electricity planning requirements. To that end, a technology-oriented optimization model for power system expansion planning has been developed. This model has been adapted from the MARKAL model. It chooses the minimization of discounted cost over the entire planning horizon as its objective function and incorporates a number of power- related constraints adopted by MARKAL. In the power planning model, 15 types of power plants are represented in terms of their technical, economic and environmental parameters. The model allows for substitution from highcarbon fossil fuels and technologies towards low-carbon and carbon-free counterparts and for interactions between periods to cope with carbon limits.Using the power planning model, a comparison of the 15 types of power plants considered has been made in terms of both the levelized cost of generation and the marginal Cost Of CO 2 reduction at a 10% discount rate. Driven by the baseline electricity demands that are estimated by the CGE model, the model has then been used to develop a baseline scenario for China's electricity supply and to analyse the impacts of compliance with CO 2 limits in the power industry. The main findings are as follows.First, large coal-fired plants and hydroelectric plants should be given priority in future electricity planning. Thus, efforts should be directed towards expanding domestic capacity for manufacturing large units, mobilizing the necessary large investment resources, and towards resolving the disappointing performance of domestically-produced large units.Second, a rapid growth of China's power industry will take place until the year 2010. Accordingly, capital investment in the industry as a share of GNP is calculated to go up from the current level. Given that coal-fired power plants still predominate, the amount of coal consumed for electricity generation accordingly grows rapidly, thus increasing its share in total coal consumption. This will lead to an increase in CO 2 emissions within the power sector itself, although the decreasing direct use of coal will alleviate the environmental impacts of coal use as a whole. Moreover, it has been shown that more large units are expected to be put into operation during the period under consideration compared with the current composition of plants. This will bring the average gross coal consumption of coal- fired plants down. Besides, the calculations show that nuclear power begins to make a useful contribution to China's electricity supply, although there is little prospect of dramatic increases until the year 2010.Third, compliance with carbon limits in the electricity sector requires accelerated expansion of hydroelectric power and nuclear power. This finding is in line with the government investment priority, which has been set with aims to reduce pressure on transportation and air pollution, but without considering the greenhouse effect. This suggests that the development of hydroelectric power and nuclear power needs to be accelerated in China if curbing CO 2 emissions is taken into account. This provides a precondition for developing joint implementation projects in China's electricity sector. In practice, however, to make these projects operational will depend on the far-reaching negotiations for joint implementation mechanism

The environmental impacts and health co-benefits of climate mitigation measures on household consumption in China

Household sector is a key sector for deploying climate mitigation strategy. Previous research has mainly focused on the impact analysis of mitigation measures at supply side. However, how to implement climate mitigation measures for household consumption activities and evaluate health co-benefits among different populations resulting from household consumption changes when conducting mitigation strategies is an unanswered research question. To answer this research question, the household sector is added into an integrated assessment framework, coupling the energy inventory data, a Greenhouse Gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, a Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM), and a Health Economic Model. This integrated assessment framework is used to conduct an analysis of direct and indirect energy consumption of household activities, and health co-benefits of deploying mitigation strategies of household consumption. We then propose suggestions for improving policy making regarding household energy consumption. Household energy consumption is divided into the direct and indirect. In this thesis, first, an analysis of household direct consumption activities and health co-benefits across age- and gender- specific populations, when deploying the clean energy transition for rural and urban households in China is conducted. Second, household indirect energy consumption is studied, and household consumption activities are classified into eight different categories: food; clothing; housing; household facilities articles and services (abbreviated as facilities); transport and communication services (transport); education; cultural and recreation services (education); medicine and medical services (health) and miscellaneous commodities and services (miscell). These categories are used to identify on which sources of energy consumption to put the emphasis of mitigation strategies, under the ongoing urbanization, in both rural and urban areas. Finally, implementing a mitigation strategy in household transport activities, to better know the potential health co-benefits across subpopulations when households adopt a “greener” mode of transport or switch to electric vehicles. A case study is done in Beijing, China, exploring mitigation scenarios through household transport pattern changes. The findings of this thesis are: 1) The implementation of climate mitigation strategies in households’ direct and indirect consumption activities can potentially generate large health benefits and economic benefits, but the distribution of these co-benefits shows regional, provincial and gender- and age- heterogeneity. 2) During China's urbanization, energy consumption of household activities related to housing and transport are expected to increase several folds; to better deploy mitigation measures for household consumption activities, regions in the first wealth quintile have the highest average income should take up the responsibility of degrading its own consumption level, especially in the consumption of aspirational and opulent goods and services and improve its own industrial energy efficiency, especially in transport, storage and transport equipment and service sector. 3) When adopting climate mitigation strategies in households’ transport modes, a case study done in Beijing, China, finds that the combination of walking, cycling and use of public transport (abbreviated as “green” transport) and electric vehicles, can generate the largest health co-benefits, with the increased use of green transport having the highest impact. This study provides new insights into the climate mitigation measures on Chinese household consumption activities and their health co-benefits across different age and gender groups at the national/regional/provincial level. Taking into account different social groups’ benefits and disadvantages for the policy making is necessary to increase the environmental justice

Carbon emissions in China's thermal electricity and heating industry: An input-output structural decomposition analysis

CO2 emissions from China accounted for 27 per cent of global emisions in 2019. More than one third of China's CO2 emissions come from the thermal electricity and heating sector. Unfortunately, this area has received limited academic attention. This research aims to find the key drivers of CO2 emissions in the thermal electricity and heating sector, as well as investigating how energy policies affect those drivers. We use data from 2007 to 2018 to decompose the drivers of CO2 emissions into four types, namely: energy structure; energy intensity; input-output structure; and the demand for electricity and heating. We find that the demand for electricity and heating is the main driver of the increase in CO2 emissions, and energy intensity has a slight effect on increasing carbon emissions. Improving the input-output structure can significantly help to reduce CO2 emissions, but optimising the energy structure only has a limited influence. This study complements the existing literature and finds that the continuous upgrading of power generation technology is less effective at reducing emissions and needs to be accompanied by the market reform of thermal power prices. Second, this study extends the research on CO2 emissions and enriches the application of the IO-SDA method. In terms of policy implications, we suggest that energy policies should be more flexible and adaptive to the varying socio-economic conditions in different cities and provinces in China. Accelerating the market-oriented reforms with regard to electricity pricing is also important if the benefits of technology upgrading and innovation are to be realised

Costs, Impacts, and Benefits of CO2 Mitigation

This volume presents the proceedings of the first international workshop on "Costs, Impacts, and Possible Benefits of CO2 Mitigation" held at IIASA in October 1992. The workshop was co-organized by the Japanese Central Research Institute of the Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), IIASA, the National Science Foundation (NSF), Yale University, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The workshop was held to review current research and analysis of economic costs and possible benefits of measures for responding to global climate change, and to critically evaluate knowledge gaps and future research activities. Technological and economic measures for achieving environmentally compatible development have been and continue to be studied. There are a few studies on the comparative assessment of mitigation and adaptation costs, and the potential benefits of these measures. Since these are long-term issues ranging into the next century, their assessment also requires a degree of understanding of possible development paths the world may take in the absence of global warming. The workshop covered the economics of climate change, its impacts, mitigation costs, policy instruments, and modeling issues. This volume summarizes these proceedings and presents the papers from the workshop