A Conceptual Framework for Integration Development of GSFLOW Model: Concerns and Issues Identified and Addressed for Model Development Efficiency

In Coupled Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow (GSFLOW) model, the three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater model (MODFLOW) plays a critical role of groundwater flow simulation, together with which the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) simulates the surface hydrologic processes. While the model development of each individual PRMS and MODFLOW model requires tremendous time and efforts, further integration development of these two models exerts additional concerns and issues due to different simulation realm, data communication, and computation algorithms. To address these concerns and issues in GSFLOW, the present paper proposes a conceptual framework from perspectives of: Model Conceptualization, Data Linkages and Transference, Model Calibration, and Sensitivity Analysis. As a demonstration, a MODFLOW groundwater flow system was developed and coupled with the PRMS model in the Lehman Creek watershed, eastern Nevada, resulting in a smooth and efficient integration as the hydrogeologic features were well captured and represented. The proposed conceptual integration framework with techniques and concerns identified substantially improves GSFLOW model development efficiency and help better model result interpretations. This may also find applications in other integrated hydrologic modelings

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in Water Demand Scenarios Using SWAT-MODFLOW-WEAP

In this article, we present the use of the coupled land surface model and groundwater flow model SWAT-MODFLOW with the decision support tool WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning software) to predict future surface-water abstraction scenarios in a complex river basin under conditions of climate change. The modelling framework is applied to the Dee River catchment in Wales, United Kingdom. Regarding hydrology, the coupled model improves overall water balance and low-streamflow conditions compared with a stand-alone SWAT model. The calibrated SWAT-MODFLOW is employed with high-resolution climate model data from the UKCP18 project with the future scenario of RCP85 from 2020 to 2040. Then, water supply results from SWAT-MODFLOW are fed into WEAP as input for the river reach in the downstream region of the river basin. This system is utilized to create various future scenarios of the surface-water abstraction of public water supply in the downstream region—maximum licensed withdraw, 50% authorized abstractions, monthly time series with 1% increases in water use, and maximum water withdraw per year based on historical records repeated every year with 1% increases in water use—to estimate the unmet demands and streamflow requirement. This modelling approach can be used in other river basins to manage scenarios of supply and demand

Enhancement of coupled surface / subsurface flow models in watersheds: analysis, model development, optimization, and user accessibility

2018 Fall.Includes bibliographical references.To view the abstract, please see the full text of the document

Improved assessment of nitrogen and phosphorus fate and transport for intensively managed irrigated stream-aquifer systems

2019 Fall.Includes bibliographical references.Nitrogen (N) and Phosphorus (P) are essential elements for animal nutrition and plant growth. However, over the previous decades, excessive loading of fertilizers in agricultural activities has led to elevated concentrations of N and P contaminations in surface waters and groundwater worldwide and associated eutrophication. Therefore, precisely understanding and representation of water movement and fate and transport of N and P within a complex dynamic groundwater-surface water system affected by agricultural practices is of essential importance for sustaining ecological health of the stream-aquifer environment while maintaining high agricultural productivity. Modeling tools often are used to assess N and P contamination and evaluate the impact of management practices. Such models include land surface-based watershed models such SWAT, and aquifer-based models that simulate spatially-distributed groundwater flow. However, SWAT simulates groundwater flow in a simplistic fashion and therefore is not suited for watersheds with complex groundwater flow patterns and groundwater-surface interactions, whereas groundwater models do not simulate land surface processes. This dissertation establishes the modeling capacity for assessing the movement, transformation, and storage of nitrate (NO₃) and soluble P in intensively managed irrigated stream-aquifer systems. This is accomplished by (1) developing a method to apply the SWAT model to such a system, and includes: designating each cultivated field as an individual hydrologic response unit (HRU), crop rotations to simulate the impact of changing crop types for each cultivated field, including N and P mass in irrigation water, and seepage from earthen irrigation canals into the aquifer; (2) simulating land surface hydrology, groundwater flow, and groundwater-surface water interactions in the system using the coupled flow model SWAT-MODFLOW, with the enhanced capability of linkage between SWAT groundwater irrigation HRUs and MODFLOW pumping cells, and the use of MODFLOW's EVT package to simulate groundwater evapotranspiration; and (3) linking RT3D, a widely used groundwater reactive solute transport model, to SWAT-MODFLOW to credibly represent of NO₃-N and soluble P fate and transport processes in irrigated agroecosystems to evaluate best management practices for nutrient contamination. This last phase will also address the uncertainty in system output (in-stream nutrient loads and concentrations, groundwater nutrient concentrations model predictions). Each modeling phase is applied to a 734 km² study region in the Lower Arkansas River Valley (LARV), an alluvial valley in Colorado, USA, which has been intensively irrigated for over 130 years and is threatened by shallow water tables and nutrient contamination. Multiple best management practices (BMPs) are investigated to analyze the effectiveness in reducing NO₃-N and soluble P contamination in the LARV. These strategies are related to irrigation management, nutrient management, water conveyance efficiency, and tillage operations. The most effective individual BMP in most areas is to decrease fertilizer by 30%, resulting in average NO₃-N and soluble P concentrations within the region could be reduced by 14% and 9%, respectively. This individual BMP could lower the average NO₃-N concentrations by 19% and soluble P concentrations by 2%. Combinations of using 30% irrigation reduction, 30% fertilization reduction, 60% canal seepage, and conservation tillage are predicted to have the greatest overall impact that can not only provide a decrease of groundwater concentration in NO₃-N up to 41% and soluble P concentration up to 8%, but also reduce the median of the in-stream NO₃-N and soluble P to meet the Colorado interim standard. As nutrient conditions within the Lower Arkansas River Valley are typical of those in many other intensively irrigated regions, the results of this dissertation and the developed modeling tools can be applied to other watersheds worldwide

APEX-MODFLOW: A New integrated model to simulate hydrological processes in watershed systems

APEX (Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender) is an oft-used agroecosystem model but has limited use in groundwater-driven watersheds due to a simplistic representation of groundwater processes. This paper presents the linkage of APEX and the groundwater flow model MODFLOW into a single modeling code. The mapping of recharge, groundwater head, and groundwater-surface water interactions are handled internally via subroutines. The APEX-MODFLOW model is applied to three watersheds in the United States for testing code accuracy and hydrologic state variables and fluxes: the Animas River Watershed, Colorado and New Mexico (3543 km2); the Price River Watershed, Utah (4886 km2); and the Middle Bosque River Watershed, Texas (470 km2). Whereas the hydrology of the Animas River and Price River watersheds is driven by snowmelt and spring runoff, the hydrology of the Middle Bosque River Watershed is driven by summer thunderstorms. The model can be used for scenario analysis in groundwater-driven watersheds

Quantifying future water resources availability and agricultural productivity in agro-urban river basins

Includes bibliographical references.2022 Fall.Climate change can have an adverse effect on agricultural productivity and water availability in semi-arid regions, as decreases in surface water availability can lead to groundwater depletion and resultant losses in crop yield due to reduced water for irrigation. Competition between urban and agricultural areas intensifies groundwater exploitation as surface water rights are sold to growing municipalities. These inter-relationships necessitate an integrated management approach for surface water, groundwater, and crop yield as a holistic system. This dissertation provides a novel integrated hydrologic modeling approach to quantify future water resources and agricultural productivity in agro-urban river basins, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where surface water and groundwater are managed conjunctively to sustain urban areas and food production capacity. This is accomplished by i) developing an integrated hydrologic modeling code that accounts for groundwater and surface water processes and exchanges in large regional-scale managed river basins, and demonstrating its use and performance in the economically diverse South Platte River Basin (SPRB), a 72,000 km2 river basin located primarily in the state of Colorado, USA; ii) using the model to understand possible future impacts imposed by climate variation on water resources (surface water and groundwater) and agricultural productivity; and iii) quantifying the combination impacts of agriculture-to-urban water trading and climate change on groundwater resources within the basin. This dissertation presents an updated version of SWAT-MODFLOW that allows application to large agro-urban river basins in semi-arid regions. SWAT provides land surface hydrologic and crop yield modeling, whereas MODFLOW provides subsurface hydrologic modeling. Specific code changes include linkage between MODFLOW pumping cells and SWAT HRUs for groundwater irrigation and joint groundwater and surface water irrigation routines. This conjunctive use, basin-scale long-term water resources, and crop yield modeling tool can be used to assess future water and agricultural management for large river basins across the world. The updated modeling code is applied to the South Platte River Basin, with model results tested against streamflow, groundwater head, and crop yield throughout the basin. To assess the climate change impacts on water resources and agricultural productivity, the coupled SWAT-MODFLOW modeling code is forced with five different CMIP5 climate models downscaled by Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), each for two climate scenarios, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for 1980-2100. In all climate models and emission scenarios, an increase of 3 to 5 °C in annual average temperature is projected by the end of the 21st century, whereas variation in projected precipitation depends on topography and distance from the mountains. Based on the results of this study, the worst-case climate model in the basin is IPSL-CM5A-MR-8.5. Under this climate scenario, for a 1 °C increase in temperature and the 1.3% reduction in annual precipitation, the basin will experience an 8.5% decrease in stream discharge, 2-5% decline in groundwater storage, and 11% reduction in crop yield. In recent decades, there has been a growing realization that developing additional water supplies to address new demands is not feasible. Instead, managing existing water supplies through reallocations is necessary to tackle water scarcity and climate change. However, third-party effects associated to water transfers has limited the growing water market. This study also quantifies the combination impacts of agriculture-to-urban water trading (widely known as 'buy and dry') and climate change on groundwater availability in semi-arid river basins through the end of 21st century, as groundwater pumping increases to satisfy irrigation water lost to the urban sector. For this analysis, we use the hydrological modeling tool SWAT-MODFLOW, forced by projected water trading amounts and two downscaled GCM climate models, each for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and 8.5. According to the results of this study, agriculture-to-urban water trading imposes an additional basin-wide 2% reduction in groundwater storage, as compared to changes due to climate. However, groundwater storage changes for local subbasins can be up to 8% and 10% through the mid-century and end of the century, respectively

Developing a New Three-Dimensional Finite-Difference Explicit in Time Solver Package for MODFLOW

Integrating existing surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) models like SWAT, MODFLOW, and HEC-RAS has been explored to simulate the complexities of SW-GW interactions. Still, challenges arise from temporal and spatial scale disparities. To tackle the temporal scale issue, this study introduces the novel explicit solver (EXP1) for MODFLOW 2005, enabling daily GW modeling similar to SWAT and HEC-RAS by reducing runtime and computational burden. The proposed solver incorporates a stability criterion to assess the stability of the proposed solver. The study compared the EXP1 solver to the widely used Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient (PCG) solver in three scenarios: a 1D model, a 2D model, and the real-world model, which was MERAS. The results showed the efficiency and accuracy of the EXP1 solver in the 1D and 2D models, with minimal deviations in head and water budget compared to PCG and shorter runtimes. However, when applied to the complex MERAS model, some modifications were necessary to ensure stability and accuracy. Stability analysis identified the main culprits of instability, including extremely small cell thicknesses, specific storages, and large external sources/sinks. Remarkably, unconfined cells exhibited high stability when a 1-day time step was chosen, attributed to the fact that the specific yield in unconfined aquifers is several orders of magnitude larger than that of confined cells. While a 1-day time step was preferred and increasing cell sizes impractical, unstable cells were converted to constant heads to achieve stability. The EXP1 solver demonstrated a 57% faster speed than PCG while maintaining comparable head accuracy. A water budget comparison showed over 10% discrepancy due to many constant head cells. To address the 1-day comparison issues, an additional assessment was conducted using a 0.01-day time step, where the EXP1 solver still performed faster and accurately in terms of GW head and water budgets. These findings indicate that the EXP1 solver is an excellent choice for modeling unconfined aquifers, which are of great interest in SW-GW model couplings due to the characteristics of unconfined cells. Conversely, implicit solvers like PCG should be the preferred option for standalone groundwater modeling to avoid stability issues

Enhanced watershed modeling and data analysis with a fully coupled hydrologic model and cloud-based flow analysis

2014 Summer.Includes bibliographical references.In today's world of increased water demand in the face of population growth and climate change, there are no simple answers. For this reason many municipalities, water resource engineers, and federal analyses turn to modeling watersheds for a better understanding of the possible outcomes of their water management actions. The physical processes that govern movement and transport of water and constituents are typically highly nonlinear. Therefore, improper characterization of a complex, integrated, processes like surface-subsurface water interaction can substantially impact water management decisions that are made based on existing models. Historically there have been numerous tools and watershed models developed to analyze watersheds or their constituent components of rainfall, run-off, irrigation, nutrients, and stream flow. However, due to the complexity of real watershed systems, many models have specialized at analyzing only a portion of watershed processes like surface flow, subsurface flow, or simply analyzing local monitoring data rather than modeling the system. As a result many models are unable to accurately represent complex systems in which surface and subsurface processes are both important. Two popular watershed models have been used extensively to represent surface processes, SWAT (Arnold et al, 1998), and subsurface processes, MODFLOW (Harbaugh, 2005). The lack of comprehensive watershed simulation has led to a rise in uncertainty for managing water resources in complex surface-subsurface driven watersheds. For this reason, there have been multiple attempts to couple the SWAT and MODFLOW models for a more comprehensive watershed simulation (Perkins and Sophocleous, 1999; Menking, 2003; Galbiati et al., 2006; Kim et al., 2008); however, the previous couplings are typically monthly couplings with spatial restrictions for the two models. Additionally, most of these coupled SWAT-MODFLOW models are unavailable to the general public, unlike the constituent SWAT and MODFLOW models which are available. Furthermore, many of these couplings depend on a forced equal spatial discretization for computational units. This requires that one MODFLOW grid cell is the same size and location of one SWAT hydrologic response unit (HRU). Additionally, many of the previous couplings are based on a loose monthly average coupling which might be insufficient in natural spring and irrigated agricultural driven groundwater systems which can fluctuate on a sub-monthly time scale. The primary goal of this work is to enhance the capacity for modeling watershed processes by fully coupling surface and subsurface hydrologic processes at a daily time step. The specific objectives of this work are 1) to examine and create a general spatial linkage between SWAT and MODFLOW allowing the use of spatially-different existing models for coupling; 2) to examine existing practices and address current weaknesses for coupling of the SWAT and MODFLOW models to develop an integrated modeling system; 3) to demonstrate the capacity of the enhanced model compared to the original SWAT and MODFLOW models on the North Fork of the Sprague River in the Upper Klamath Basin in Oregon. The resulting generalized daily coupling between a spatially dis-similar SWAT and MODFLOW model on the North Fork of the Sprague River has resulted in a slightly more lower representation of monthly stream flow (monthly R2 = 0.66, NS = 0.38) than the original SWAT model (monthly R2 = 0.60, NS = 0.57) with no additional calibration. The Log10 results of stream flow illustrate an even greater improvement between SWAT-MODFLOW correlation (R2) but not the overall simulation (NS) (monthly R2 = 0.74, NS = -0.29) compared to the original SWAT (monthly R2 = 0.63, NS = 0.63) correlation (R2). With an improved water table representation, these SWAT-MODFLOW simulation results illustrate a more in depth representation of overall stream flows on a groundwater influenced tributary of the Sprague River than the original SWAT model. Additionally, with the increased complexity of environmental models there is a need to design and implement tools that are more accessible and computationally scalable; otherwise their use will remain limited to those that developed them. In light of advancements in cloud-computing technology a better implementation of modern desktop software packages would be the use of scalable cloud-based cyberinfrastructure, or cloud-based environmental modeling services. Cloud-based deployment of water data and modeling tools assist in a scalable as well as platform independent analysis; meaning a desktop, laptop, tablet, or smart phone can perform the same analyses. To utilize recent advancements in computer technology, a further focus of this work is to develop and demonstrate a scalable cloud-computing web-tool that facilitates access and analysis of stream flow data. The specific objectives are to 1) unify the various stream flow analysis topics into a single tool; 2) to assist in the access to data and inputs for current flow analysis methods; 3) to examine the scalability benefits of a cloud-based flow analysis tool. Furthermore, the new Comprehensive Flow Analysis tool successfully combined time-series statistics, flood analysis, base-flow separation, drought analysis, duration curve analysis, and load estimation into a single web-based tool. Preliminary and secondary scalability testing has revealed that the CFA analyses are scalable in a cloud-based cyberinfrastructure environment to a request rate that is likely unrealistic for web tools

Assessing long-term conservation of groundwater resources in the Ogallala Aquifer Region using hydro-agronomic modeling

2022 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.Groundwater is vital for domestic use, municipalities, agricultural irrigation, industrial processes, etc. Over the past century, excessive groundwater depletion has occurred globally and regionally, notably in arid and semi-arid regions, often due to providing irrigation water for crop cultivation. The High Plains Aquifer (HPA) is the largest freshwater aquifer in the United States and has experienced severe depletion in the past few decades due to excessive pumping for agricultural irrigation. There is a need to determine management strategies that conserve groundwater, thereby allowing irrigation for coming decades, while maintaining current levels of crop yield within the context of a changing climate. Numerical models can be useful tools in this effort. Hydrologic models can be used to assess current and future storage of groundwater and how this storage depends on system inputs and outputs, whereas agronomic models can be used to assess the impact of water availability on crop production. Linking these models to jointly assess groundwater storage and crop production can be helpful in exploring management practices that conserve groundwater and maintain crop yield under future possible climate conditions. The objectives of this dissertation are: i) to develop a linked modeling system between DSSAT, an agronomic model, and MODFLOW, a groundwater flow model to be used for evaluating long-term impacts of climate and management strategies on water use efficiency and farm profitability of agricultural systems while managing groundwater sustainably; ii) to use the DSSAT-MODFLOW modeling system in a global sensitivity analysis framework to determine the system factors (climate, soil, management, aquifer) that control crop yield and groundwater storage in a groundwater-stressed irrigated region, thereby pointing to possibilities of efficient management; and iii) to quantify the effect of groundwater conservation strategies and climate on crop yield and groundwater storage to identify irrigation and planting practices that will maintain adequate crop yield while minimizing groundwater depletion. These three objectives are applied to the hydro-agronomic system of Finney County, Kansas, which lies within the HPA. Major findings include: 1) climate-related parameters significantly affect crop yields, especially for maize and sorghum, and soybean and winter wheat yields are sensitive to a combination of cultivar genetic parameters, soil-related parameters, and climate-related parameters; 2) Climatic parameters account for 44%, 29%, 40%, and 36% variation in yield of maize, soybean, winter wheat, and sorghum; 3) Hydrogeologic parameters (aquifer hydraulic conductivity, aquifer specific yield, and riverbed conductance) have a relatively low influence on crop yields; 4) water table elevation, recharge, and irrigation pumping are considerably sensitive to soil- and climate-related parameters, while ET, river leakage, and groundwater/aquifer discharge are highly influenced by hydrogeological parameters (e.g., riverbed conductance, and specific yield); 5) the best management practice is the combination of implementing drip irrigation and planting quarter plots under both dry and wet future climate conditions. Other irrigation systems (sprinkler) and planting decisions (half-plots) can also be implemented without severe groundwater depletion. If crop yield is to be maintained in this region of the HPA, groundwater depletion can be minimized but not completely prevented. Results highlight the need for implementing new irrigation technologies, and likely changing crop type decisions (e.g., limiting corn cultivation) in coming decades in this region of the HPA. Results from this dissertation can be used in other groundwater-irrigated regions facing depletion of groundwater