Disaster management from a POM perspective : mapping a new domain

We have reviewed disaster management research papers published in major operations management, management science, operations research, supply chain management and transportation/ logistics journals. In reviewing these papers our objective is to assess and present the macro level “architectural blue print” of disaster management research with the hope that it will attract new researchers and motivate established researchers to contribute to this important field. The secondary objective is to bring this disaster research to the attention of disaster administrators so that disasters are managed more efficiently and more effectively. We have mapped the disaster management research on the following five attributes of a disaster: (1) Disaster Management Function (decision making process, prevention and mitigation, evacuation, humanitarian logistics, casualty management, and recovery and restoration), (2) Time of Disaster (before, during and after), (3) Type of Disaster (accidents, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, landslides, terrorism and wildfires etc.), (4) Data Type (Field and Archival data, Real data and Hypothetical data), and (5) Data Analysis Technique (bidding models, decision analysis, expert systems, fuzzy system analysis, game theory, heuristics, mathematical programming, network flow models, queuing theory, simulation and statistical analysis). We have done cross tabulations of data among these five parameters to gain greater insights in disaster research. Recommendations for future research are provided

Exploring the data needs and sources for severe weather impact forecasts and warnings : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Emergency Management at Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand

Figures 2.4 & 2.5 are re-used with permission.The journal articles in Appendices J, L & M are republished under respective Creative Commons licenses. Appendix K has been removed from the thesis until 1 July 2022 in accordance with the American Meteorological Society Copyright Policy, but is available open access at https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0093.1Early warning systems offer an essential, timely, and cost-effective approach for mitigating the impacts of severe weather hazards. Yet, notable historic severe weather events have exposed major communication gaps between warning services and target audiences, resulting in widespread losses. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has proposed Impact Forecasts and Warnings (IFW) to address these communication gaps by bringing in knowledge of exposure, vulnerability, and impacts; thus, leading to warnings that may better align with the position, needs, and capabilities of target audiences. A gap was identified in the literature around implementing IFWs: that of accessing the required knowledge and data around impacts, vulnerability, and exposure. This research aims to address this gap by exploring the data needs of IFWs and identifying existing and potential data sources to support those needs. Using Grounded Theory (GT), 39 interviews were conducted with users and creators of hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure (HIVE) data within and outside of Aotearoa New Zealand. Additionally, three virtual workshops provided triangulation with practitioners. In total, 59 people participated in this research. Resulting qualitative data were analysed using GT coding techniques, memo-writing, and diagramming. Findings indicate a growing need for gathering and using impact, vulnerability, and exposure data for IFWs. New insight highlights a growing need to model and warn for social and health impacts. Findings further show that plenty of sources for HIVE data are collected for emergency response and other uses with relevant application to IFWs. Partnerships and collaboration lie at the heart of using HIVE data both for IFWs and for disaster risk reduction. This thesis contributes to the global understanding of how hydrometeorological and emergency management services can implement IFWs, by advancing the discussion around implementing IFWs as per the WMO’s guidelines, and around building up disaster risk data in accordance with the Sendai Framework Priorities. An important outcome of this research is the provision of a pathway for stakeholders to identify data sources and partnerships required for implementing a hydrometeorological IFW system

A model evaluating effect of disaster warning issuance conditions on "cry wolf syndrome" in the case of a landslide

This study proposes a model that clarifies how disaster warning issuance conditions affect "cry wolf' syndrome. The disaster assumed in this study is landslide caused by heavy rainfall. Local authorities that issue disaster warnings are thought to tend to avoid the situation where casualty occurs without the issuance to residents of a disaster warning. As a result, the issuance conditions may be relaxed. Under this circumstance, however, the residents are thought to tend to ignore disaster warnings, since such warnings are inaccurate. Thus may emerge the "cry wolf' syndrome. In this study, a simulation model that expresses the behaviors of the local authority and the residents has been developed. For the purpose of demonstrating the model, numerical experiments were then carried out. In the numerical experiments, the effects of optimal issuance conditions for disaster warnings on the cost incurred by the resident were evaluated by using assumed parameters for the model

Assessing the impact of public policies on the safe development paradox in Presidente Getúlio municipality : Brazil

Hydrological disaster risk reduction is a complex challenge that requires a comprehensive approach that considers both the social and hydrological systems. The safe development paradox (SDP) is a socio-hydrological phenomenon that can occur when measures lead to a false sense of safety and increase vulnerability and exposure. In this study, we investigated this phenomenon in detail to verify if public policies influence the SDP and perception of hydrological disaster risks. To this end, we performed (1) a systematic literature review of scientific literature and (2) conducted a case study to evaluate the SDP in the Revólver basin, an area with no major structural measures which experienced a compound disaster of hydrological phenomena and the COVID-19 pandemic. For the SDP evaluation, mixed methods were used, including interviews with community members and with local stakeholders with formal roles using the protection motivation theory, document analysis, and spatial analysis. The systematic review found that most studies provided evidence to confirm the SDP and its sub-phenomena, the “levee effect.” However, quantitative studies often overlooked critical dimensions such as vulnerability, risk perception, and the existence of the false sense of safety. More comprehensive assessments were observed in mixed methods and qualitative approaches, which most encompassed aspects such as preparedness, vulnerability, and risk perception. In regards the case study, the Revólver basin’s we found low threat and coping appraisals among community members, which led to inadequate protective responses. Additionally, a false sense of safety was present among a third of the participants, fostered by high trust in the government policies related to disaster risk reduction (DRR) and the consideration of building permits as safety indicators. These individuals adopted non-protective behaviour due to this false sense of safety. Stakeholders with formal roles indicated that DRR actions were absent in the study area, primarily because it had been deemed secure until the 2020 disaster. Local policies, particularly the relaxation of riparian regulations and inadequate risk mapping, facilitated settlement in hazardous regions, exacerbating the SDP among community members. Therefore, local policies influenced the SDP in the study area, especially in regions with rare disaster prevalence. Lastly, this research contributes to the understanding of the complex interplay between public policies and socio-hydrological phenomena, and highlights the need of policies integration for DRR. In addition, highlights the potential for non-structural policies directly or indirectly related to DRR to produce unintended effects on societal risk dynamics. For future research, we recommend expanding the geographical scope, investigating a wider range of disasters, and continuing to explore the potential effect of policies in areas without protection infrastructures. We also recommend examining factors that may increase risk perception and preparedness in areas affected by the SDP, and investigating the transition from an adequate sense of safety to a false sense of safety and identifying the influencing factors.A redução do risco de desastres hidrológicos é um desafio complexo que requer uma abordagem abrangente que considere os sistemas sociais e hidrológicos. O paradoxo do desenvolvimento seguro (PDS) é um fenômeno socio-hidrológico que pode ocorrer quando medidas levam a uma falsa sensação de segurança e aumentam a vulnerabilidade e a exposição. Neste estudo, investigamos este fenômeno em detalhe para verificar se as políticas públicas influenciam o paradoxo do desenvolvimento seguro e a percepção de desastres hidrológicos. Para isso, realizamos (1) uma revisão sistemática da literatura científica sobre o PDS e (2) um estudo de caso para avaliar o PDS na bacia do Revólver, uma área sem grandes medidas estruturais que foi acometida por um desastre composto de fenômenos hidrológicos em cascata e a pandemia de COVID-19. Para a avaliação do PDS, foram utilizados métodos mistos, incluindo entrevistas com membros da comunidade e com stakeholders locais com funções formais utilizando a teoria da motivação para a proteção (TMP), análise documental e análise espacial. A revisão sistemática constatou que a maioria dos estudos forneceu evidências para confirmar o PDS e seu sub-fenômeno, o “efeito de dique”. No entanto, os estudos quantitativos frequentemente negligenciaram dimensões críticas como vulnerabilidade, percepção de risco e a existência da falsa sensação de segurança. Avaliações mais abrangentes foram observadas em abordagens qualitativas e de métodos mistos, e englobaram aspectos como preparação, vulnerabilidade e percepção de risco. Já em relação ao estudo de caso, encontramos baixa percepção de risco e baixa percepção de capacidade para enfrentar os desastres, o que levou a um comportamento não protetivo. Ademais, a falsa sensação de segurança foi observada em um terço dos participantes, alimentada por uma alta confiança nas políticas governamentais relacionadas à redução do risco de desastres (RRD) e pela consideração de alvarás de construção como indicadores de segurança. Estes indivíduos adotaram um comportamento não protetivo devido a essa falsa sensação de segurança. Os stakeholders com papéis formais indicaram que não havia ações de RRD na área de estudo, pois era considerada segura até o desastre de 2020. As políticas locais, particularmente a flexibilização das áreas de preservação permanente e o mapeamento inadequado de riscos, facilitou o assentamento em regiões de perigo, exacerbando o PDS entre os membros da comunidade. Portanto, as políticas locais influenciaram o PDS na área de estudo, especialmente em regiões com baixa prevalência de desastres. Esta pesquisa contribui para a compreensão da complexa inter-relação entre políticas públicas e fenômenos socio-hidrológicos, e destaca a necessidade de integração de políticas para a RRD. Além disso, destaca o potencial de políticas não estruturais diretamente ou indiretamente relacionadas à RRD para produzir efeitos não intencionais na dinâmica social do risco. Para pesquisas futuras, recomendamos ampliar o escopo geográfico, investigar uma gama mais ampla de desastres e continuar a explorar o potencial efeito das políticas em áreas medidas estruturais para proteção. Também recomendamos examinar fatores que podem aumentar a percepção do risco e a preparação em áreas afetadas pela PDS, e investigar a transição de uma sensação de segurança para uma falsa sensação de segurança e identificar os fatores que influenciam

Essays on Flood Disaster Relief Recovery Practices and Policy: Applying the Lens of Service Operations Strategy

This dissertation uses a service operations lens to investigate flood disasters’ recovery phase, the least-studied area of Humanitarian Operations and Crisis Management (HOCM). Comprising three essays, my dissertation deepens our knowledge of disaster recovery by using two different units of analysis, including province (state) and household levels. In Essay 1, entitled “The Influence of Industrialization and Internet Usage on Per-Capita Income: A Longitudinal Analysis of Flood Events in Thai Provinces,” we introduce a novel approach to research HOCM by using econometric analyses. We use panel data as a tool to guide decision makers in understanding the notion of flood recovery, broadly measured by a province’s per-capita income at any given time. Using panel data from 2006-2012 across 75 Thai provinces, we empirically address the question of how industrialization level and Internet usage affect per-capita income changes during and after a flood incident. Using these results, we then identify groups of provinces that recovered “best” and “worst” in order to further evaluate other identifying factors that contribute to “best-worst” recovery performance. Essay 2, entitled “Antecedents of Financial Recovery Effectiveness from Floods: A Structural Econometric Analysis of Flooding in Thailand,” uses a sample survey of approximately 34,000 households in Thailand with data pre-, during-, and post-flood disaster in 2011. Using a service operations lens, our study aims to identify where and how in the flood cycle various stakeholders—individuals, communities and governments—can act to increase the likelihood of a successful service recovery. More specifically, this research asks what type of strategic actions policy makers can take to better allocate precious resources in all three flood phases to improve the overall recovery effectiveness. Essay 3, entitled “The Influence of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Factors on the Utilization of Healthcare Services During Floods,” proposes a research framework that examines flood-response healthcare service delivery in developing countries. Because resources are scarce, service operations’ strategies with regards to household water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) are critical for improving the post-disaster flood recovery phase. Using field and archival data, we empirically investigate the influence of WASH strategies on households’ decisions and access to healthcare services during floods. Collectively, these essays argue for the importance of a service operations strategy perspective for disasters, providing a research blueprint to improve recovery effectiveness

Standardising the USGS volcano alert level system: acting in the context of risk, uncertainty and complexity

A volcano alert level system (VALS) forms a key component of a volcano early warning system, which is used to communicate warning information from scientists to civil authorities managing volcanic hazards. In 2006, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) standardised its VALS, replacing all locally developed systems with a common standard. The emergence of this standardisation, and resulting implications, are charted here, in the context of managing the scientific complexities and diverse agencies involved in volcanic crises. The VALS concept embodies a linear reductionist approach to decision-making, designed around warning levels that correspond to levels of volcanic activity. Yet, complexities emerge as a consequence of the uncertain nature of the physical hazard, the contingencies of local institutional dynamics, and the plural social contexts within which each VALS is embedded, challenging its responsiveness to local knowledge and context. Research conducted at five USGS managed volcano observatories in Alaska, Cascades, Hawaii, Long Valley, and Yellowstone explores the benefits and limitations standardisation brings to each observatory. It concludes that standardisation is difficult to implement for three reasons. Firstly, conceptually, natural hazard warning systems are complex and non-linear, and the VALS intervenes in an overall system characterised by emergent properties and the interaction of many agents, for which forecasting and prediction are difficult. Secondly, pragmatically, the decision to move between alert levels is based upon more than volcanic activity and scientific information, with broader social and environmental risks playing a key role in changing alert levels. Thirdly, empirically, the geographical, social and political context to each volcano observatory results in the standardised VALS being applied in non-standard ways. It is recommended that, rather than further defining a standardised linear product, VALS should focus on developing systems based upon processes and best practice designed to facilitate communication and interaction between scientists and users in context

Communicating the sciences of Disaster Risk Reduction: media stories surrounding the Canterbury earthquakes of 2010-2011

Communication of disaster risk reduction (DRR) should be participatory, democratised and scientifically robust according to ideals enshrined in the United Nations’ International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Hyogo Framework for Action and Sendai Framework 2015. The mass media are a vital pathway for transferring knowledge about DRR. This thesis explored the media communication of science for DRR in New Zealand. A methodology was developed for comparing survey results with academic and mass media content about earthquakes (Chapter 3). A review of communication of DRR under the above communicative paradigm identified seven key elements of ‘best-practice’ communication (‘7Ts’), and yielded sixteen features (‘16Cs’) of ‘well-regarded’ communication (Chapter 4). This thesis focused on assessing communicated content in terms of three of the features, considerateness, completeness and comprehensiveness (Chapters 5, 6 and 7). Complete and comprehensive understanding of DRR is shown to involve the range of stakeholders involved in DRR, consideration of the natural, built, social and economic environments, and recognition of the disciplinary diversity of sciences that contribute to DRR knowledge. A framework was developed to classify all DRR actions according to twelve DRR-communication topics. Other frame sets that may be used singly or collectively to analyse for completeness were also presented. Considerate science communication engages the community and asks what they need to know. Communication that is well-regarded is ‘effective’, ‘ethical’ and exhibits ‘best-practice’. Survey and in-depth interview of 493 New Zealanders showed citizens concur with, but also extend what is already known from the research literature of wider global community expectations of communication. Framing analysis was used to analyse four DRR-related data sets quantitatively for completeness, as per frames described in Chapter 3. Media content, survey and interview results, DRR-related research knowledge, and authorities’ pre-earthquake advice were analysed. This enabled the framing of topics communicated in the mass media before, during and after the Canterbury earthquakes to be compared and contrasted with current understandings from DRR-related research. The media items were geoscience-, hazard-, event- and consequence-focused, containing only limited mention of how individual and community vulnerabilities might be reduced. Areas for potential improvement were suggested for the 155 earthquake-related story types identified in New Zealand online print, television media and women’s magazines. The content-related recommendations combined existing natural hazard and disaster media research findings with what survey respondents indicated they needed (Chapters 5-7). Greater acknowledgement of scientific uncertainties, and more discussion of the risk cost-benefit trade-offs being made on behalf of citizens, as well as the reasoning behind other related decision-making, was requested by survey respondents. Less emphasis on probability by journalists and scientific or expert sources, when discussing risk, seems warranted, as do a greater emphasis on disaster causes, recovery, and concepts of self- and community-efficacy in DRR. Given that audiences had difficulty gaining broad perspectives in DRR, I conclude more evidence-based information from a wider range of social and physical sciences is needed. Communication should focus on resilience, on solutions rather than problems, and recognise the importance of community innovation, adaptation and leadership in preparation, avoidance and mitigation