Wind Speed Intervals Prediction using Meta-cognitive Approach

© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. In this paper, an interval type-2 neural fuzzy inference system and its meta-cognitive learning algorithm for wind speed prediction is proposed. Interval type-2 neuro-fuzzy system is capable of handling uncertainty associated with the data and meta-cognition employs self-regulation mechanism for learning. The proposed system realizes Takagi-Sugeno-Kang inference mechanism and adopts a fast data-driven interval-reduction method. Meta-cognitive learning enables the network structure to evolve automatically based on the knowledge in data. The parameters are updated based on an extended Kalman filter algorithm. In addition, the proposed network is able to construct prediction intervals to quantify uncertainty associated with forecasts. For performance evaluation, a real-world wind speed prediction problem is utilized. Using historical data, the model provides short-term prediction intervals of wind speed. The performance of proposed algorithm is compared with existing state-of-the art fuzzy inference system approaches and the results clearly indicate its advantages in forecasting problems

Wave Forecasting using Meta-cognitive Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Inference System

© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Renewable energy is fast becoming a mainstay in today's energy scenario. One of the important sources of renewable energy is the wave energy, in addition to wind, solar, tidal, etc. Wave prediction/forecasting is consequently essential in coastal and ocean engineering studies. However, it is difficult to predict wave parameters in long term and even in the short term due to its intermittent nature. This study aims to propose a solution to handle the issue using Interval type-2 fuzzy inference system, or IT2FIS. IT2FIS has been shown to be capable of handling uncertainty associated with the data. The proposed IT2FIS is a fuzzy neural network realizing Takagi-Sugeno-Kang inference mechanism employing meta-cognitive learning algorithm. The algorithm monitors knowledge in a sample to decide an appropriate learning strategy. Performance of the system is evaluated by studying significant wave heights obtained from buoys located in Singapore. The results compared with existing state-of-the art fuzzy inference system approaches clearly indicate the advantage of IT2FIS based wave prediction

EEG-Analysis for Cognitive Failure Detection in Driving Using Type-2 Fuzzy Classifiers

The paper aims at detecting on-line cognitive failures in driving by decoding the EEG signals acquired during visual alertness, motor-planning and motor-execution phases of the driver. Visual alertness of the driver is detected by classifying the pre-processed EEG signals obtained from his pre-frontal and frontal lobes into two classes: alert and non-alert. Motor-planning performed by the driver using the pre-processed parietal signals is classified into four classes: braking, acceleration, steering control and no operation. Cognitive failures in motor-planning are determined by comparing the classified motor-planning class of the driver with the ground truth class obtained from the co-pilot through a hand-held rotary switch. Lastly, failure in motor execution is detected, when the time-delay between the onset of motor imagination and the EMG response exceeds a predefined duration. The most important aspect of the present research lies in cognitive failure classification during the planning phase. The complexity in subjective plan classification arises due to possible overlap of signal features involved in braking, acceleration and steering control. A specialized interval/general type-2 fuzzy set induced neural classifier is employed to eliminate the uncertainty in classification of motor-planning. Experiments undertaken reveal that the proposed neuro-fuzzy classifier outperforms traditional techniques in presence of external disturbances to the driver. Decoding of visual alertness and motor-execution are performed with kernelized support vector machine classifiers. An analysis reveals that at a driving speed of 64 km/hr, the lead-time is over 600 milliseconds, which offer a safe distance of 10.66 meters

The 1990 progress report and future plans

This document describes the progress and plans of the Artificial Intelligence Research Branch (RIA) at ARC in 1990. Activities span a range from basic scientific research to engineering development and to fielded NASA applications, particularly those applications that are enabled by basic research carried out at RIA. Work is conducted in-house and through collaborative partners in academia and industry. Our major focus is on a limited number of research themes with a dual commitment to technical excellence and proven applicability to NASA short, medium, and long-term problems. RIA acts as the Agency's lead organization for research aspects of artificial intelligence, working closely with a second research laboratory at JPL and AI applications groups at all NASA centers