불확실성 하에서 시스템의 유지 보수 최적화 및 수명 주기 예측

학위논문 (박사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 화학생물공학부, 2019. 2. 이원보.The equipment and energy systems of most chemical plants have undergone repetitive physical and chemical changes and lead to equipment failure through aging process. Replacement and maintenance management at an appropriate point in time is an important issue in terms of safety, reliability and performance. However, it is difficult to find an optimal solution because there is a trade-off between maintenance cost and system performance. In many cases, operation companies follow expert opinions based on long-term industry experience or forced government policy. For cost-effective management, a quantitative state estimation method and management methodology of the target system is needed. Various monitoring technologies have been introduced from the field, and quantifiable methodologies have been introduced. This can be used to diagnose the current state and to predict the life span. It is useful for decision making of system management. This thesis propose a methodology for lifetime prediction and management optimization in energy storage system and underground piping environment. First part is about online state of health estimation algorithm for energy storage system. Lithium-ion batteries are widely used from portable electronics to auxiliary power supplies for vehicle and renewable power generation. In order for the battery to play a key role as an energy storage device, the state estimation, represented by state of charge and state of health, must be well established. Accurate rigorous dynamic models are essential for predicting the state-of health. There are various models from the first principle partial differential model to the equivalent circuit model for electrochemical phenomena of battery charge / discharge. It is important to simulate the battery dynamic behavior to estimate system state. However, there is a limitation on the calculation load, therefore an equivalent circuit model is widely used for state estimation. Author presents a state of health estimation algorithm for energy storage system. The proposed methodology is intended for state of health estimation under various operating conditions including changes in temperature, current and voltage. Using a recursive estimator, this method estimate the current battery state variable related to battery cell life. State of health estimation algorithm uses estimated capacity as a cell life-time indicator. Adaptive parameters are calibrated by a least sum square error estimation method based on nonlinear programming. The proposed state-of health estimation methodology is validated with cell experimental lithium ion battery pack data under typical operation schedules and demonstration site operating data. The presented results show that the proposed method is appropriate for state of health estimation under various conditions. The suitability of algorithm is demonstrated with on and off line monitoring of new and aged cells using cyclic degradation experiments. The results from diverse experimental data and data of demonstration sites show the appropriateness of the accuracy, robustness. Second part is structural reliability model for quantification about underground pipeline risk. Since the long term usage and irregular inspection activities about detection of corrosion defect, catastrophic accidents have been increasing in underground pipelines. Underground pipeline network is a complex infrastructure system that has significant impact on the economic, environmental and social aspects of modern societies. Reliability based quantitative risk assessment model is useful for underground pipeline involving uncertainties. Firstly, main pipeline failure threats and failure modes are defined. External corrosion is time-dependent factor and equipment impact is time-independent factor. The limit state function for each failure cause is defined and the accident probability is calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. Simplified consequence model is used for quantification about expected failure cost. It is applied to an existing underground pipeline for several fluids in Ulsan industrial complex. This study would contribute to introduce quantitative results to prioritize pipeline management with relative risk comparisons Third part is maintenance optimization about aged underground pipeline system. In order to detect and respond to faults causing major accidents, high resolution devices such as ILI(Inline inspection), Hydrostatic Testing, and External Corrosion Direct Assessment(ECDA) can be used. The proposed method demonstrates the structural adequacy of a pipeline by making an explicit estimate of its reliability and comparing it to a specified reliability target. Structural reliability analysis is obtaining wider acceptance as a basis for evaluating pipeline integrity and these methods are ideally suited to managing metal corrosion damage as identified risk reduction strategies. The essence of this approach is to combine deterministic failure models with maintenance data and the pipeline attributes, experimental corrosion growth rate database, and the uncertainties inherent in this information. The calculated failure probability suggests the basis for informed decisions on which defects to repair, when to repair them and when to re-inspect or replace them. This work could contribute to state estimation and control of the lithium ion battery for the energy storage system. Also, maintenance optimization model helps pipeline decision-maker determine which integrity action is better option based on total cost and risk.화학공장 내 장치 및 에너지 시스템은 반복적인 사용으로 물리화학적 변화를 겪으며 노후화되고 설계 수명에 가까워지게 된다. 적절한 시점에 장비 교체와 보수 관리는 안전과 신뢰도, 전체 시스템 성능을 좌우하는 중요한 문제이다. 그러나, 보수 비용과 시스템 성능을 유지하는 것 사이에는 트레이드 오프가 존재하기 때문에 이에 대한 최적점을 찾는 것은 어려운 문제이다. 많은 경우에 운영회사에서는 경험에 기반한 전문가 의견을 따르거나, 정부차원의 안전관리 정책 최소 기준에 맞추어 진행한다. 비용효율적 관리를 위하여 정량적인 상태 추정 기법이나 유지보수 관리 방법론은 필요하다. 많은 모니터링 기술이 개발되어지고 있고 점차 실시간 측정 방법이나 센서 기술이 발달 하고 있다. 그러나, 여전히 직접 측정 및 검사 이전 장비의 수명 예측과 시스템 관리에 대한 의사결정을 도울 방법론은 부족한 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 리튬 이온 배터리의 수명예측 방법론과 지하매설배관의 관리 최적화 문제를 다룬다. 첫 장에서는 에너지 저장시스템 운전패턴에 적합한 배터리 SOH 추정 방법론에 대한 것이다. 리튬 이온 배터리는 이동가능 전자장치에서부터 자동차 및 신재생발전 등의 보조 전력 저장장치로서 활용이 이루어지고 있다. 배터리가 정상적인 역할을 하기 위하여 SOC와 SOH의 정확한 추정이 중요하다. 정확한 동적 모델은 SOH 예측을 위하여 필수적이다. BMS에는 계산 로드에 한계가 있기 때문에 상태 추정을 위하여 계산 부하가 비교적 적은 등가회로 모델이 사용된다. 본 논문에서는 SOH 예측 알고리즘을 제시하고, 셀 및 실증 사이트 데이터로 검증한다. 반복 예측기와 관측기 기법을 활용하여 SOH를 추정을 통하여 현재의 배터리 상태를 제시한다. SOH 예측 알고리즘은 용량을 중요 상태변수로 하여 예측된다. 제안 알고리즘에서는 SOH를 정확히 추정하기 위하여 확장칼만필터를 도입하여 배터리 상태변수들을 정확히 예측하고 이를 기반으로 SOH를 추정하는 알고리즘을 제안한다. 두번째 장은 구조 신뢰도 분석을 통하여 지하배관의 정량적 위험성 모델을 수립한다. 배관의 장기 사용과 불규칙한 검사/보수 활동에 대한 불확실성은 지하배관 안전 사고의 위험성을 증대시키는 요인이다. 산업단지 내의 지하배관 네트워크는 복잡한 인프라를 갖추고 있기 때문에 사고 발생시 경제적, 환경적, 사회적으로 큰 위협요소가 된다. 신뢰도 기반 정량적 위험도 모델은 지하배관의 큰 불확실성 요소를 고려하는데 유용한 방법론이다. 배관 사고 위협요인과 사고 모드를 정의하고, 부식과 타공사에 이르는 시간 의존적, 비의존적 요소를 고려하여 한계상태함수를 결정한다. 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 통하여 연간 사고확률이 유추되며 사고 영향거리 및 누출량 계산 모델과 합하여 정량적 위험성 분석을 할 수 있다. 배관에 존재하는 다양한 물질들에 대하여 케이스 스터디를 진행하여 정량화된 위험도에 근거하여 배관관리 우선순위를 정하는 의사결정에 반영할 수 있다. 세번째 장은 노후화된 배관 시스템의 관리 최적화에 대한 내용이다. 사고의 위험성을 미연에 방지하기 위하여 다양한 검사, 보수 방법론이 사용된다. 그러나, 이에 대한 효과가 위험성과 어떻게 관련되어서 나타나는지 알기 어렵다. 대부분 경험적으로 혹은 제도적인 방안을 통하여 보수적인 안전관리를 진행하는 한계성이 있다. 제안된 방법론을 토대로 하여 안전관리 방법에 대한 실제적인 부식 관리에 영향 정도를 정량화 한다. 신뢰도 목표와 제안 되어진 예산 등을 제한조건으로 하는 최적화를 실시하여 최적의 검사 주기, 최적의 검사 방법론을 확인한다. 위 연구를 토대로 개선된 리튬이온 배터리의 온라인 상태추정 알고리즘 제시하고 위험도 환산 비용을 결합한 구조 신뢰도 모델로 지하배관 관리 최적화 방법론을 제시한다.Abstract i Contents vi List of Figures ix List of Tables xii CHAPTER 1. Introduction 14 1.1. Research motivation 14 1.2. Research objectives 19 1.3. Outline of the thesis 20 CHAPTER 2. Lithium ion battery modeling and state of health Estimation 21 2.1. Background 21 2.2. Literature Review 22 2.2.1. Battery model 23 2.2.2. Qualitative comparative review of state of health estimation algorithm 29 2.3. Previous estimation algorithm 32 2.3.1. Nonlinear State estimation method 32 2.3.2. Sliding mode observer 35 2.3.3. Proposed Algorithm 37 2.3.4. Uncertainty Factors for SOH estimation in ESS 42 2.4. Data acquisition 44 2.4.1. Lithium ion battery specification 45 2.4.2. ESS Experimental setup 47 2.4.3. Sensitivity Analysis for Model Parameter 54 2.5. Result and Discussion 59 2.5.1. Estimation results of battery model 59 2.5.2. Estimation results of proposed method 63 2.6. Conclusion 68 CHAPTER 3. Reliability estimation modeling for quantitative risk assessment about underground pipeline 69 3.1. Introduction 69 3.2. Uncertainties in underground pipeline system 72 3.3. Probabilistic based Quantitative Risk Assessment Model 73 3.3.1. Structural Reliability Assessment 73 3.3.2. Failure mode 75 3.3.3. Limit state function and variables 79 3.3.4. Reliability Target 86 3.3.5. Failure frequency modeling 90 3.3.6. Consequence modeling 95 3.3.7. Simulation method 101 3.4. Case study 103 3.4.1. Statistical review of Industrial complex underground pipeline 103 3.5. Result and discussion 107 3.5.1. Estimation result of failure probability 107 3.5.1. Estimation result validation 118 CHAPTER 4. Maintenance optimization methodology for cost effective underground pipeline management 120 4.1. Introduction 120 4.2. Problem Definition 124 4.3. Maintenance scenario analysis modeling 126 4.3.1. Methodology description 128 4.3.2. Cost modeling 129 4.3.3. Maintenance mitigation model 132 4.4. Case study 136 4.5. Results 138 4.5.1. Result of optimal re-inspection period 138 4.5.2. Result of optimal maintenance actions 144 CHAPTER 5. Concluding Remarks 145 References 147Docto

A novel application of image processing for the detection of rail surface RCF damage and incorporation in a crack growth model

The paper presents the development of an intelligent image processing algorithm capable of detecting fatigue defects from images of the rail surface. The links between the defect detection algorithm and 3D models for rail crack propagation are investigated, considering the influence of input parameters (materials, vehicle characteristics, loading conditions). The dynamic behaviour at the wheel-rail interface resulting in contact forces responsible for stressing and straining the rail material are imported from vehicle dynamics simulations. The integration of the simulated results from vehicle dynamics, contact and fracture mechanics models offer more reliable estimation of the stress intensity factors (SIF). Also the sensitivity analysis related to materials, vehicle characteristics, and loading conditions will provide further understanding of the factors that influence crack propagation in rails such as shear stresses, hydraulic pressure, fluid entrapment and squeeze film effect. This novel application of image processing for the detection of rail surface rolling contact fatigue (RCF) damage and automatic incorporation in a crack growth model represents an important contribution to the development of modern techniques for non-destructive rail inspection. This will result in improved planning/scheduling of future rail maintenance (e.g. rail grinding, renewal), less disruptions and reduced track maintenance costs in rail industry

Modelo de apoio à decisão para a manutenção condicionada de equipamentos produtivos

Doctoral Thesis for PhD degree in Industrial and Systems EngineeringIntroduction: This thesis describes a methodology to combine Bayesian control chart and CBM (Condition-Based Maintenance) for developing a new integrated model. In maintenance management, it is a challenging task for decision-maker to conduct an appropriate and accurate decision. Proper and well-performed CBM models are beneficial for maintenance decision making. The integration of Bayesian control chart and CBM is considered as an intelligent model and a suitable strategy for forecasting items failures as well as allow providing an effectiveness maintenance cost. CBM models provides lower inventory costs for spare parts, reduces unplanned outage, and minimize the risk of catastrophic failure, avoiding high penalties associated with losses of production or delays, increasing availability. However, CBM models need new aspects and the integration of new type of information in maintenance modeling that can improve the results. Objective: The thesis aims to develop a new methodology based on Bayesian control chart for predicting failures of item incorporating simultaneously two types of data: key quality control measurement and equipment condition parameters. In other words, the project research questions are directed to give the lower maintenance costs for real process control. Method: The mathematical approach carried out in this study for developing an optimal Condition Based Maintenance policy included the Weibull analysis for verifying the Markov property, Delay time concept used for deterioration modeling and PSO and Monte Carlo simulation. These models are used for finding the upper control limit and the interval monitoring that minimizes the (maintenance) cost function. Result: The main contribution of this thesis is that the proposed model performs better than previous models in which the hypothesis of using simultaneously data about condition equipment parameters and quality control measurements improve the effectiveness of integrated model Bayesian control chart for Condition Based Maintenance.Introdução: Esta tese descreve uma metodologia para combinar Bayesian control chart e CBM (Condition- Based Maintenance) para desenvolver um novo modelo integrado. Na gestão da manutenção, é importante que o decisor possa tomar decisões apropriadas e corretas. Modelos CBM bem concebidos serão muito benéficos nas tomadas de decisão sobre manutenção. A integração dos gráficos de controlo Bayesian e CBM é considerada um modelo inteligente e uma estratégica adequada para prever as falhas de componentes bem como produzir um controlo de custos de manutenção. Os modelos CBM conseguem definir custos de inventário mais baixos para as partes de substituição, reduzem interrupções não planeadas e minimizam o risco de falhas catastróficas, evitando elevadas penalizações associadas a perdas de produção ou atrasos, aumentando a disponibilidade. Contudo, os modelos CBM precisam de alterações e a integração de novos tipos de informação na modelação de manutenção que permitam melhorar os resultados.Objetivos: Esta tese pretende desenvolver uma nova metodologia baseada Bayesian control chart para prever as falhas de partes, incorporando dois tipos de dados: medições-chave de controlo de qualidade e parâmetros de condição do equipamento. Por outras palavras, as questões de investigação são direcionadas para diminuir custos de manutenção no processo de controlo.Métodos: Os modelos matemáticos implementados neste estudo para desenvolver uma política ótima de CBM incluíram a análise de Weibull para verificação da propriedade de Markov, conceito de atraso de tempo para a modelação da deterioração, PSO e simulação de Monte Carlo. Estes modelos são usados para encontrar o limite superior de controlo e o intervalo de monotorização para minimizar a função de custos de manutenção.Resultados: A principal contribuição desta tese é que o modelo proposto melhora os resultados dos modelos anteriores, baseando-se na hipótese de que, usando simultaneamente dados dos parâmetros dos equipamentos e medições de controlo de qualidade. Assim obtém-se uma melhoria a eficácia do modelo integrado de Bayesian control chart para a manutenção condicionada

Cost benefit evaluation of maintenance options for aging equipment using monetised risk values: A practical application

With constant pressure to reduce maintenance costs as well as short-term budget constraints in a changing market environment, asset managers are compelled to continue operating aging assets while deferring maintenance and investment. The scope of the paper is to get an overview of the methods used to evaluate risks and opportunities for deferred maintenance interventions on aging equipment, and underline the importance to include monetised risk considerations and timeline considerations, to evaluate different scenarios connected with the possible options. Monetised risk values offer the opportunity to support risk-based decision-making using the data collected from the field. The paper presents examples of two different methods and their practical applicability in two case studies in the energy sector for a company managing power stations. The use of the existing and the new proposed solutions are discussed on the basis of their applicability to the concrete examples

Cost Benefit Evaluation of Maintenance Options for Aging Equipment Using Monetised Risk Values: A practical application

With constant pressure to reduce maintenance costs as well as short-term budget constraints in a changing market environment, asset managers are compelled to continue operating aging assets while deferring maintenance and investment. The scope of the paper is to get an overview of the methods used to evaluate risks and opportunities for deferred maintenance interventions on aging equipment, and underline the importance to include monetised risk considerations and timeline considerations, to evaluate different scenarios connected with the possible options. Monetised risk values offer the opportunity to support risk-based decision-making using the data collected from the field. The paper presents examples of two different methods and their practical applicability in two case studies in the energy sector for a company managing power stations. The use of the existing and the new proposed solutions are discussed on the basis of their applicability to the concrete examples

Throughput and Yield Improvement for a Continuous Discrete-Product Manufacturing System

A seam-welded steel pipe manufacturing process has mainly four distinct major design and/or operational problems dealing with buffer inventory, cutting tools, pipe sizing and inspection-rework facility. The general objective of this research is to optimally solve these four important problems to improve the throughput and yield of the system at a minimum cost. The first problem of this research finds the optimal buffer capacity of steel strip coils to minimize the maintenance and downtime related costs. The total cost function for this coil feeding system is formulated as a constrained non-linear programming (NLP) problem which is solved with a search algorithm. The second problem aims at finding the optimal tool magazine reload timing, magazine size and the order quantity for the cutting tools. This tool magazine system is formulated as a mixed-integer NLP problem which is solved for minimizing the total cost. The third problem deals with different type of manufacturing defects. The profit function of this problem forms a binary integer NLP problem which involves multiple integrals with several exponential and discrete functions. An exhaustive search method is employed to find the optimum strategy for dealing with the defects and pipe sizing. The fourth problem pertains to the number of servers and floor space allocations for the off-line inspection-rework facility. The total cost function forms an integer NLP structure, which is minimized with a customized search algorithm. In order to judge the impact of the above-mentioned problems, an overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) measure, coined as monetary loss based regression (MLBR) method, is also developed as the fifth problem to assess the performance of the entire manufacturing system. Finally, a numerical simulation of the entire process is conducted to illustrate the applications of the optimum parameters setting and to evaluate the overall effectiveness of the simulated system. The successful improvement of the simulated system supports this research to be implemented in a real manufacturing setup. Different pathways shown here for improving the throughput and yield of industrial systems reflect not only to the improvement of methodologies and techniques but also to the advancement of new technology and national economy

Maintenance models applied to wind turbines. A comprehensive overview

Producción CientíficaWind power generation has been the fastest-growing energy alternative in recent years, however, it still has to compete with cheaper fossil energy sources. This is one of the motivations to constantly improve the efficiency of wind turbines and develop new Operation and Maintenance (O&M) methodologies. The decisions regarding O&M are based on different types of models, which cover a wide range of scenarios and variables and share the same goal, which is to minimize the Cost of Energy (COE) and maximize the profitability of a wind farm (WF). In this context, this review aims to identify and classify, from a comprehensive perspective, the different types of models used at the strategic, tactical, and operational decision levels of wind turbine maintenance, emphasizing mathematical models (MatMs). The investigation allows the conclusion that even though the evolution of the models and methodologies is ongoing, decision making in all the areas of the wind industry is currently based on artificial intelligence and machine learning models

Vibration based assessment of Kalbaskraal rail bridge

The focus on the condition and performance of existing structures has increased due to the growing number of structures approaching or exceeding their design life. The challenges associated with the assessment of existing structures include deterioration, changes in loading conditions, changes in the structures function or the structure reaching the latter portion of its designed service life. In order for authorities to better determine how to deal with existing structures, there must be a coherent means of determining, measuring and benchmarking the current condition and performance of the structure. The current study proposes and demonstrates the integration of a visual based condition assessment with vibration based assessment techniques for railway bridges. The methodology suggests a systematic visual assessment combined with the development of a finite element model which is calibrated by using modal parameters ascertained from vibration based testing. The bridge which was used as a case study was the Kalbaskraal Railway Bridge located in Malmesbury. The proposed methodology consists of the following steps: 1) Initial Assessment 2) Development of a Finite Element Model 3) Detailed assessment and Ambient Vibration Field Testing 4) Analysis of Modal Parameters 5) Calibration of FEM using Modal Parameters 6) Setting up Load Configurations 7) Assessment of structural response 8) Assessment of Serviceability limit state of bridge The overall outcome of the study yielded an effective result in that the conclusions drawn from the outcomes of the methodology correlated well with previous studies on the bridge. The structure under its current operational load of 16ton/axle wagons performed within the allowable serviceability limit state. A proposed increase to 22.5ton/axle loads identified that the bridge would be performing on the boundary or above the allowable serviceability limit state and that retrofitting may have to be considered for the bridge to effectively support the additional load. The results derived from this study can be extremely valuable in the bridge management process as the information on the condition of the bridge can aid bridge authorities in their decision making processes