Applications of robust optimal control to decision making in the presence of uncertainty

This thesis is concerned with robustness of decision making in financial economics. Feedback control models developed in engineering are applied to three separate though linked problems in order to examine the role and impact of robustness in the creation and application of decision rules. Three problems are examined using robust optimal control techniques to evaluate the impact of robustness and stability in financial economic models. The first problem examines the use of linear models of robust optimal control in the pricing of castastrophe based derivatives and finds its relative performance to be superior to the popular jump diffusion and stochastic volatility models in the pricing of these emerging instruments. The novelty of the approach arises from the examination of the impact of robustness and stability of the pricing solution. The second problem involves robustness and stability of hedging. An alternative method of creating hedging rules is developed. The method is based on robust control Lyapunov functions that are simple, robust and stable in operation, yet in practice are not so conservative that they eliminate all trading gains. The third problem involves the development of robust control policies for managing risk, using non-linear robust optimal control techniques to provide clear evidence of superior performance of robust models when compared with existing VAR and EVT approaches to risk management. The novelty in the approach arises from the development of a simple and powerful risk management metric

Untangling hotel industry’s inefficiency: An SFA approach applied to a renowned Portuguese hotel chain

The present paper explores the technical efficiency of four hotels from Teixeira Duarte Group - a renowned Portuguese hotel chain. An efficiency ranking is established from these four hotel units located in Portugal using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. This methodology allows to discriminate between measurement error and systematic inefficiencies in the estimation process enabling to investigate the main inefficiency causes. Several suggestions concerning efficiency improvement are undertaken for each hotel studied.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

SIMULATING SEISMIC WAVE PROPAGATION IN TWO-DIMENSIONAL MEDIA USING DISCONTINUOUS SPECTRAL ELEMENT METHODS

We introduce a discontinuous spectral element method for simulating seismic wave in 2- dimensional elastic media. The methods combine the flexibility of a discontinuous finite element method with the accuracy of a spectral method. The elastodynamic equations are discretized using high-degree of Lagrange interpolants and integration over an element is accomplished based upon the Gauss-Lobatto-Legendre integration rule. This combination of discretization and integration results in a diagonal mass matrix and the use of discontinuous finite element method makes the calculation can be done locally in each element. Thus, the algorithm is simplified drastically. We validated the results of one-dimensional problem by comparing them with finite-difference time-domain method and exact solution. The comparisons show excellent agreement