Analysis of Alaska Transportation Sectors to Assess Energy Use and Impacts of Price Shocks and Climate Change Legislation

We analyzed the use of energy by Alaska’s transportation sectors to assess the impact of sudden fuel prices changes. We conducted three types of analysis: 1) Development of broad energy use statistics for each transportation sector, including total annual energy and fuel use, carbon emissions, fuel use per ton-mile and passenger-mile, and cost of fuel per ton-mile and passenger-mile. 2) Economic input-output analysis of air, rail, truck, and water transportation sectors. 3) Adjustment of input-output modeling to reflect sudden fuel price changes to estimate the potential impact on industry output and employment. Alaska air transportation used approximately 1.9 billion gallons of fuel annually; 961 million gallons were used for intra-state and exiting Alaska flights. Water transportation used 101.8 million gallons annually, approximately 84.3 million gallons for intra-state and exiting segments. Railroad and truck transportation used 5.1 and 8.8 million gallons annually, respectively. Simulated fuel price increases resulted in an estimated $456.8 million in value-added losses to the Alaska economy through the increase in cost of transportation services, as well as an equivalent loss in income to Alaska household of$26.8 million. A carbon emissions tax would have the greatest impact on the cost of air transportation services followed by water, trucking and rail.309002 DTRT06-G-0011List of Figures / List of Tables / Acknowledgements / Abstract / Executive Summary / Introduction / Background / Research Approach / Findings and Applications / Conclusions / References / Appendix A. Marine Transportation Companies / Appendix B. Barge Fuel Use Calculations / Appendix C. Data Dictionary of Variables and Sources Used for Aviation Fuel Estimates / Appendix D. Glossary of Economic Impact Term

The complex network of global cargo ship movements

Transportation networks play a crucial role in human mobility, the exchange of goods, and the spread of invasive species. With 90% of world trade carried by sea, the global network of merchant ships provides one of the most important modes of transportation. Here we use information about the itineraries of 16,363 cargo ships during the year 2007 to construct a network of links between ports. We show that the network has several features which set it apart from other transportation networks. In particular, most ships can be classified in three categories: bulk dry carriers, container ships and oil tankers. These three categories do not only differ in the ships' physical characteristics, but also in their mobility patterns and networks. Container ships follow regularly repeating paths whereas bulk dry carriers and oil tankers move less predictably between ports. The network of all ship movements possesses a heavy-tailed distribution for the connectivity of ports and for the loads transported on the links with systematic differences between ship types. The data analyzed in this paper improve current assumptions based on gravity models of ship movements, an important step towards understanding patterns of global trade and bioinvasion.Comment: 7 figures Accepted for publication by Journal of the Royal Society Interface (2010) For supplementary information, see http://www.icbm.de/~blasius/publications.htm

Research of Marine Ferry Systems Based on Discretization pf Processes and Simulation Ferry Market Based on CIRCOS Intensity Graph

There has been a significant increase in the role of sea ferry services today as well as a significant increase in the number of ferry vessels and passenger flow, which requires the development of new practical forecasting methods. The article proposes a new approach to forecasting, which is based on the integrated interaction of the systems «passenger sea port - cruise or ferry lines». This research focused on the regions of the Adriatic and the Baltic Sea and the existing network of cruise and ferry line routes. When studying this system, it was justified to use a new mathematical model based on practical simulation and models of the theory of discrete processes and systems. The proposed model is complemented by a discretization-based study based on the Kotelnikov´s theorem. To reflect the dynamics of changes in such a system, it is proposed to use new diagrams of the intensity represented by circos graphs (diagrams). The article discusses the practical importance of using new circos intensity graphs of sections to study the operation of the «marine terminal - cruise line or ferry line» systems based on real data on the Baltic and Adriatic seas. Based on the simulation results, a new system of corrective actions is proposed to improve the management of marine terminals. It presents new results which can increase the accuracy of the planning and decision-making process in predicting and planning the route network based on the research of passenger traffic between the «sea terminal - cruise line or ferry line» systems

Multi-objective Model on Connection Time Optimization in Sea-rail Intermodal Transport

Container sea-rail intermodal transport operation needs to consider some special demands both in volume and time connection. That means container sea-rail intermodal transport is a type of demand responsive transport between railroad trains and marine ships, vice versa. It needs to operate container trains according to the demands of ships in OD, volume, as well as the arrival and departure time. Basing on this responsive demand characteristic of sea-rail intermodal transport, the paper establishes a multi-objective optimal model for its connection time, aiming for maximizing the profits of carriers and minimizing the total transport costs of shippers, as well as minimizing the connection time between container trains and ships to optimizing the intermodal transport system. Modified genetic algorithm is adopted. The calculation results demonstrate that the model could be used to solve the connection problem of container sea-rail intermodal transport involved with volume and time connections

Arctic transshipment hub planning along the Northern Sea Route: A systematic literature review and policy implications of Arctic port infrastructure

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Simulating Maritime Chokepoint Disruption in the Global Food Supply

The three food crops of wheat, maize, and rice make up almost two-thirds of the world\u27s dietary energy needs. Of these three, just six countries provide 70% of the global supply. Furthermore, soybeans account for three-quarters of global livestock feed, and only three countries provide 80% of the global supply. Considering over half of the world\u27s exported supply of these four commodities are exported via maritime means, the free ow of marine traffic becomes paramount. Current models lack the ability to capture the inherent variance displayed in the maritime transport system, which can lead to inaccurate assumptions about how the system functions - assumptions that could ultimately bring chaos to an importing economy. To capture this inherent variance, a discrete-event simulation was built to better understand how disruptions in this system impact those who rely on its unhindered functionality. Monthly export data is used, and the maritime chokepoints of the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Gibraltar are modeled for disruption. Results indicate significant food shortages for all importers studied, with some receiving 97% less of a commodity in a given month. China is particularly sensitive to a closure of the Panama Canal in the months of September - January. Egypt and Spain could expect significant food decreases if the Strait of Gibraltar were to close in any month, with Spain experiencing its worst declines should a disruption occur in September. Marine traffic through the Strait of Malacca was also significantly impacted when any of the three chokepoints studied were closed

Operationalizing the circular city model for naples' city-port: A hybrid development strategy

The city-port context involves a decisive reality for the economic development of territories and nations, capable of significantly influencing the conditions of well-being and quality of life, and of making the Circular City Model (CCM) operational, preserving and enhancing seas and marine resources in a sustainable way. This can be achieved through the construction of appropriate production and consumption models, with attention to relations with the urban and territorial system. This paper presents an adaptive decision-making process for Naples (Italy) commercial port's development strategies, aimed at re-establishing a sustainable city-port relationship and making Circular Economy (CE) principles operative. The approach has aimed at implementing a CCM by operationalizing European recommendations provided within both the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework-specifically focusing on goals 9, 11 and 12-and the Maritime Spatial Planning European Directive 2014/89, to face conflicts about the overlapping areas of the city-port through multidimensional evaluations' principles and tools. In this perspective, a four-step methodological framework has been structured applying a place-based approach with mixed evaluation methods, eliciting soft and hard knowledge domains, which have been expressed and assessed by a core set of Sustainability Indicators (SI), linked to SDGs. The contribution outcomes have been centred on the assessment of three design alternatives for the East Naples port and the development of a hybrid regeneration scenario consistent with CE and sustainability principles. The structured decision-making process has allowed us to test how an adaptive approach can expand the knowledge base underpinning policy design and decisions to achieve better outcomes and cultivate a broad civic and technical engagement, that can enhance the legitimacy and transparency of policies

Traffic Analysis for the Calibration of Risk Assessment Methods

In order to provide some measure of the uncertainty inherent in the sorts of charting data that are provided to the end-user, we have previously proposed risk models that measure the magnitude of the uncertainty for a ship operating in a particular area. Calibration of these models is essential, but the complexity of the models means that we require detailed information on the sorts of ships, traffic patterns and density within the model area to make a reliable assessment. In theory, the ais system should provide this information for a suitably instrumented area. We consider the problem of converting, filtering and analysing the raw ais traffic to provide statistical characterizations of the traffic in a particular area, and illustrate the method with data from 2008-10-01 through 2008-11-30 around Norfolk, VA. We show that it is possible to automatically construct aggregate statistical characteristics of the port, resulting in distributions of transit location, termination and duration by vessel category, as well as type of traffic, physical dimensions, and intensity of activity. We also observe that although 60 days give us suffi- cient data for our immediate purposes, a large proportion of it—up to 52% by message volume—must be considered dubious due to difficulties in configuration, maintenance and operation of ais transceivers