1,161 research outputs found
Accounting for model error in Tempered Ensemble Transform Particle Filter and its application to non-additive model error
In this paper, we trivially extend Tempered (Localized) Ensemble Transform
Particle Filter---T(L)ETPF---to account for model error. We examine T(L)ETPF
performance for non-additive model error in a low-dimensional and a
high-dimensional test problem. The former one is a nonlinear toy model, where
uncertain parameters are non-Gaussian distributed but model error is Gaussian
distributed. The latter one is a steady-state single-phase Darcy flow model,
where uncertain parameters are Gaussian distributed but model error is
non-Gaussian distributed. The source of model error in the Darcy flow problem
is uncertain boundary conditions. We comapare T(L)ETPF to a Regularized
(Localized) Ensemble Kalman Filter---R(L)EnKF. We show that T(L)ETPF
outperforms R(L)EnKF for both the low-dimensional and the high-dimensional
problem. This holds even when ensemble size of TLETPF is 100 while ensemble
size of R(L)EnKF is greater than 6000. As a side note, we show that TLETPF
takes less iterations than TETPF, which decreases computational costs; while
RLEnKF takes more iterations than REnKF, which incerases computational costs.
This is due to an influence of localization on a tempering and a regularizing
parameter
Application of ensemble transform data assimilation methods for parameter estimation in reservoir modelling
Over the years data assimilation methods have been developed to obtain
estimations of uncertain model parameters by taking into account a few
observations of a model state. The most reliable methods of MCMC are
computationally expensive. Sequential ensemble methods such as ensemble Kalman
filers and particle filters provide a favourable alternative. However, Ensemble
Kalman Filter has an assumption of Gaussianity. Ensemble Transform Particle
Filter does not have this assumption and has proven to be highly beneficial for
an initial condition estimation and a small number of parameter estimation in
chaotic dynamical systems with non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper we
employ Ensemble Transform Particle Filter (ETPF) and Ensemble Transform Kalman
Filter (ETKF) for parameter estimation in nonlinear problems with 1, 5, and
2500 uncertain parameters and compare them to importance sampling (IS). We
prove that the updated parameters obtained by ETPF lie within the range of an
initial ensemble, which is not the case for ETKF. We examine the performance of
ETPF and ETKF in a twin experiment setup and observe that for a small number of
uncertain parameters (1 and 5) ETPF performs comparably to ETKF in terms of the
mean estimation. For a large number of uncertain parameters (2500) ETKF is
robust with respect to the initial ensemble while ETPF is sensitive due to
sampling error. Moreover, for the high-dimensional test problem ETPF gives an
increase in the root mean square error after data assimilation is performed.
This is resolved by applying distance-based localization, which however
deteriorates a posterior estimation of the leading mode by largely increasing
the variance. A possible remedy is instead of applying localization to use only
leading modes that are well estimated by ETPF, which demands a knowledge at
which mode to truncate
4D Seismic History Matching Incorporating Unsupervised Learning
The work discussed and presented in this paper focuses on the history
matching of reservoirs by integrating 4D seismic data into the inversion
process using machine learning techniques. A new integrated scheme for the
reconstruction of petrophysical properties with a modified Ensemble Smoother
with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) in a synthetic reservoir is proposed.
The permeability field inside the reservoir is parametrised with an
unsupervised learning approach, namely K-means with Singular Value
Decomposition (K-SVD). This is combined with the Orthogonal Matching Pursuit
(OMP) technique which is very typical for sparsity promoting regularisation
schemes. Moreover, seismic attributes, in particular, acoustic impedance, are
parametrised with the Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT). This novel combination
of techniques from machine learning, sparsity regularisation, seismic imaging
and history matching aims to address the ill-posedness of the inversion of
historical production data efficiently using ES-MDA. In the numerical
experiments provided, I demonstrate that these sparse representations of the
petrophysical properties and the seismic attributes enables to obtain better
production data matches to the true production data and to quantify the
propagating waterfront better compared to more traditional methods that do not
use comparable parametrisation techniques
State-space solutions to the dynamic magnetoencephalography inverse problem using high performance computing
Determining the magnitude and location of neural sources within the brain
that are responsible for generating magnetoencephalography (MEG) signals
measured on the surface of the head is a challenging problem in functional
neuroimaging. The number of potential sources within the brain exceeds by an
order of magnitude the number of recording sites. As a consequence, the
estimates for the magnitude and location of the neural sources will be
ill-conditioned because of the underdetermined nature of the problem. One
well-known technique designed to address this imbalance is the minimum norm
estimator (MNE). This approach imposes an regularization constraint that
serves to stabilize and condition the source parameter estimates. However,
these classes of regularizer are static in time and do not consider the
temporal constraints inherent to the biophysics of the MEG experiment. In this
paper we propose a dynamic state-space model that accounts for both spatial and
temporal correlations within and across candidate intracortical sources. In our
model, the observation model is derived from the steady-state solution to
Maxwell's equations while the latent model representing neural dynamics is
given by a random walk process.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS483 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
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