Methods of Technical Prognostics Applicable to Embedded Systems

Hlavní cílem dizertace je poskytnutí uceleného pohledu na problematiku technické prognostiky, která nachází uplatnění v tzv. prediktivní údržbě založené na trvalém monitorování zařízení a odhadu úrovně degradace systému či jeho zbývající životnosti a to zejména v oblasti komplexních zařízení a strojů. V současnosti je technická diagnostika poměrně dobře zmapovaná a reálně nasazená na rozdíl od technické prognostiky, která je stále rozvíjejícím se oborem, který ovšem postrádá větší množství reálných aplikaci a navíc ne všechny metody jsou dostatečně přesné a aplikovatelné pro embedded systémy. Dizertační práce přináší přehled základních metod použitelných pro účely predikce zbývající užitné životnosti, jsou zde popsány metriky pomocí, kterých je možné jednotlivé přístupy porovnávat ať už z pohledu přesnosti, ale také i z pohledu výpočetní náročnosti. Jedno z dizertačních jader tvoří doporučení a postup pro výběr vhodné prognostické metody s ohledem na prognostická kritéria. Dalším dizertačním jádrem je představení tzv. částicového filtrovaní (particle filtering) vhodné pro model-based prognostiku s ověřením jejich implementace a porovnáním. Hlavní dizertační jádro reprezentuje případovou studii pro velmi aktuální téma prognostiky Li-Ion baterii s ohledem na trvalé monitorování. Případová studie demonstruje proces prognostiky založené na modelu a srovnává možné přístupy jednak pro odhad doby před vybitím baterie, ale také sleduje možné vlivy na degradaci baterie. Součástí práce je základní ověření modelu Li-Ion baterie a návrh prognostického procesu.The main aim of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive overview of technical prognosis, which is applied in the condition based maintenance, based on continuous device monitoring and remaining useful life estimation, especially in the field of complex equipment and machinery. Nowadays technical prognosis is still evolving discipline with limited number of real applications and is not so well developed as technical diagnostics, which is fairly well mapped and deployed in real systems. Thesis provides an overview of basic methods applicable for prediction of remaining useful life, metrics, which can help to compare the different approaches both in terms of accuracy and in terms of computational/deployment cost. One of the research cores consists of recommendations and guide for selecting the appropriate forecasting method with regard to the prognostic criteria. Second thesis research core provides description and applicability of particle filtering framework suitable for model-based forecasting. Verification of their implementation and comparison is provided. The main research topic of the thesis provides a case study for a very actual Li-Ion battery health monitoring and prognostics with respect to continuous monitoring. The case study demonstrates the prognostic process based on the model and compares the possible approaches for estimating both the runtime and capacity fade. Proposed methodology is verified on real measured data.

A critical review of improved deep learning methods for the remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion batteries.

As widely used for secondary energy storage, lithium-ion batteries have become the core component of the power supply system and accurate remaining useful life prediction is the key to ensure its reliability. Because of the complex working characteristics of lithium-ion batteries as well as the model parameter changing along with the aging process, the accuracy of the online remaining useful life prediction is difficult but urgent to be improved for the reliable power supply application. The deep learning algorithm improves the accuracy of the remaining useful life prediction, which also reduces the characteristic testing time requirement, providing the possibility to improve the power profitability of predictive energy management. This article analyzes, reviews, classifies, and compares different adaptive mathematical models on deep learning algorithms for the remaining useful life prediction. The features are identified for the modeling ability, according to which the adaptive prediction methods are classified. The specific criteria are defined to evaluate different modeling accuracy in the deep learning calculation procedure. The key features of effective life prediction are used to draw relevant conclusions and suggestions are provided, in which the high-accuracy deep convolutional neural network — extreme learning machine algorithm is chosen to be utilized for the stable remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion batteries

Fault Diagnosis and Failure Prognostics of Lithium-ion Battery based on Least Squares Support Vector Machine and Memory Particle Filter Framework

123456A novel data driven approach is developed for fault diagnosis and remaining useful life (RUL) prognostics for lithium-ion batteries using Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) and Memory-Particle Filter (M-PF). Unlike traditional data-driven models for capacity fault diagnosis and failure prognosis, which require multidimensional physical characteristics, the proposed algorithm uses only two variables: Energy Efficiency (EE), and Work Temperature. The aim of this novel framework is to improve the accuracy of incipient and abrupt faults diagnosis and failure prognosis. First, the LSSVM is used to generate residual signal based on capacity fade trends of the Li-ion batteries. Second, adaptive threshold model is developed based on several factors including input, output model error, disturbance, and drift parameter. The adaptive threshold is used to tackle the shortcoming of a fixed threshold. Third, the M-PF is proposed as the new method for failure prognostic to determine Remaining Useful Life (RUL). The M-PF is based on the assumption of the availability of real-time observation and historical data, where the historical failure data can be used instead of the physical failure model within the particle filter. The feasibility of the framework is validated using Li-ion battery prognostic data obtained from the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Prognostic Center of Excellence (PCoE). The experimental results show the following: (1) fewer data dimensions for the input data are required compared to traditional empirical models; (2) the proposed diagnostic approach provides an effective way of diagnosing Li-ion battery fault; (3) the proposed prognostic approach can predict the RUL of Li-ion batteries with small error, and has high prediction accuracy; and, (4) the proposed prognostic approach shows that historical failure data can be used instead of a physical failure model in the particle filter

Overview of Machine Learning Methods for Lithium-Ion Battery Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction

Lithium-ion batteries play an indispensable role, from portable electronic devices to electric vehicles and home storage systems. Even though they are characterized by superior performance than most other storage technologies, their lifetime is not unlimited and has to be predicted to ensure the economic viability of the battery application. Furthermore, to ensure the optimal battery system operation, the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) prediction has become an essential feature of modern battery management systems (BMSs). Thus, the prediction of RUL of Lithium-ion batteries has become a hot topic for both industry and academia. The purpose of this work is to review, classify, and compare different machine learning (ML)-based methods for the prediction of the RUL of Lithium-ion batteries. First, this article summarizes and classifies various Lithium-ion battery RUL estimation methods that have been proposed in recent years. Secondly, an innovative method was selected for evaluation and compared in terms of accuracy and complexity. DNN is more suitable for RUL prediction due to its strong independent learning ability and generalization ability. In addition, the challenges and prospects of BMS and RUL prediction research are also put forward. Finally, the development of various methods is summarized

A Study on Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Prognostic Applications

We consider the prediction algorithm and performance evaluation for prognostics and health management (PHM) problems, especially the prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) for the milling machine cutter and lithium ‐ ion battery. We modeled battery as a voltage source and internal resisters. By analyzing voltage change trend during discharge, we made the prediction of battery remain discharge time in one discharge cycle. By analyzing internal resistance change trend during multiple cycles, we were able to predict the battery remaining useful time during its life time. We showed that the battery rest profile is correlated with the RUL. Numerical results using the realistic battery aging data from NASA prognostics data repository yielded satisfactory performance for battery prognosis as measured by certain performance metrics. We built a battery test platform and simulated more usage pattern and verified the prediction algorithm. Prognostic performance metrics were used to compare different algorithms

Are electric vehicle batteries being underused? A review of current practices and sources of circularity

The increasing demand for Lithium-ion batteries for Electric Vehicle calls for the adoption of sustainable practices and a switch towards a circular economy-based system to ensure that the electrification of transportation does not come at a high environmental cost. While driving patterns have not changed much over the years, the current Electric Vehicle market is evolving towards models with higher battery capacities. In addition, these batteries are considered to reach the End of Life at 70–80% State of Health, regardless of their capacity and application requirements. These issues may cause an underuse of the batteries and, therefore, hinder the sustainability of the Electric Vehicle. The goal of this study is to review and compare the circular processes available around Electric Vehicle batteries. The review highlights the importance of prioritizing the first-life of the battery onboard, starting with reducing the nominal capacity of the models. In cases where the battery is in risk of reaching the End of Life with additional value, Vehicle to Grid is encouraged over the deployment of second-life applications, which are being strongly promoted through institutional fundings in Europe. As a result of the identified research gaps, the methodological framework for the estimation of a functional End of Life is proposed, which constitutes a valuable tool for sustainable decision-making and allows to identify a more accurate End of Life, rather than considering the fixed threshold assumed in the literature.This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 963580. This funding includes funds to support research work and openaccess publications.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Artificial Intelligence Opportunities to Diagnose Degradation Modes for Safety Operation in Lithium Batteries

The degradation and safety study of lithium-ion batteries is becoming increasingly important given that these batteries are widely used not only in electronic devices but also in automotive vehicles. Consequently, the detection of degradation modes that could lead to safety alerts is essential. Existing methodologies are diverse, experimental based, model based, and the new trends of artificial intelligence. This review aims to analyze the existing methodologies and compare them, opening the spectrum to those based on artificial intelligence (AI). AI-based studies are increasing in number and have a wide variety of applications, but no classification, in-depth analysis, or comparison with existing methodologies is yet available

Nonlinear Stochastic Filtering for Online State of Charge and Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Lithium-ion Battery

Battery state monitoring is one of the key techniques in Battery Management System (BMS). Accurate estimation can help to improve the system performance and to prolong the battery lifetime. The main challenges for the state online estimation of Li-ion batteries are the flat characteristic of open circuit voltage (OCV) with the function of the state of charge. Hence, the focus of this thesis study is to estimation of the state of charge (SOC) of Li-ion with high accuracy, more robustness. A 2nd order RC equivalent circuit model is adapted to battery model for simulation, mathematical model analysis, and dynamics characteristic of battery study. Model parameters are identified with MATLAB battery model simulation. Although with more lumped RC loaders, the model is more accurate, high computation with a higher nonlinear function of output will be. So, a discrete state space model for the battery is developed. For a complex battery model with strong nonlinearity, Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method can be utilized to perform the on-line SOC estimation. An SMC integrates the Bayesian learning methods with sequential importance sampling. SMC approximate the posterior density function by a set of particles with associated weights, which is developed in MATLAB environment to estimate on-line SOC. A comparison is presented with Kalman Filtering and Extended Kalman Filtering to validated estimation results with SMC. Finally, the comparison results provide that SMC method is more accurate and robust then KF and EKF. Accurately prediction of Remaining Useful Life of Li-ion batteries is necessary to reliable system operation and monitoring the BMS. An empirical model for capacity degradation has been developed based on experimentally obtained capacity fade data. A nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space model is developed for empirical model. The obtained empirical model used in Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) framework is to update the on-line state and model parameters to make a prediction of remaining useful life of a Li-ion battery at various lifecycle

Data-driven battery aging diagnostics and prognostics

Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries play a pivotal role in transforming the transportation sector from heavily relying on fossil fuels to a low-carbon solution. But, as an electrochemical device, a battery will inevitably undergo irreversible degradation over time. Therefore, accurate and reliable aging diagnostics and prognostics become indispensable for safe and efficient battery usage during operation. However, diverse aging mechanisms, stochastic usage patterns, and cell-to-cell variations impose significant challenges. With the ever-increasing awareness of the importance of vehicle operating data, more and more automotive companies have started to collect field data. Meanwhile, the rapid advancement in computational power has drawn tremendous attention to using machine learning algorithms to solve complex and challenging tasks. In this thesis, recent data-driven modeling techniques, using both field data collected during vehicle operation and laboratory cycling data, are applied to improve the overall performance of battery aging diagnostics and prognostics. A series of data-driven methods are proposed ranging from battery state of health estimation, future aging trajectory prediction, and remaining useful life prediction. The algorithms are extensively evaluated with various data sources of different battery kinds. The evaluation results indicate that the developed methods are accurate and robust, but more importantly, they are applicable to the harsh conditions encountered in real-world vehicle operations