Impacts of Europe's Changing Climate - 2008 Indicator Based Assessment

Background and objective This report is an update and extension of the 2004 EEA report 'Impacts of Europe's changing climate'. Since 2004, there has been much progress in monitoring and assessing the impacts of climate change in Europe. The objectives of this report are to present this new information on past and projected climate change and its impacts through indicators, to identify the sectors and regions most vulnerable to climate change with a need for adaptation, and to highlight the need to enhance monitoring and reduce uncertainties in climate and impact modelling. To reflect the broadening of coverage of indicators and make use of the best available expertise, the report has been developed jointly by EEA, JRC and WHO Regional Office for Europe. Global developments in science and policy The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 4th Assessment report reconfirmed and strengthened earlier scientific findings about key aspects of climate change. Increased monitoring and research efforts have enhanced understanding of climate change impacts and vulnerability. At the 2007 Bali climate change conference, the urgency of responding effectively to climate change through both adaptation and mitigation activities was recognised by a larger number of countries than ever before. The EU has proposed a target of a maximum global temperature increase of 2 °C above the pre-industrial level. A post-Kyoto regime that would include both adaptation and mitigation is expected to be agreed by end of 2009. There has been progress in implementing the Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, developed to help countries improve their understanding of climate change impacts. European developments in science and policy European research on impacts and vulnerability in the context of national programmes and the 5th and 6th Framework Programmes has advanced considerably, making a major contribution to international assessments such as those of the IPCC, the Arctic Impact Assessment, the UNEP Global Outlook for Ice and Snow and WHO reports. New research programmes focusing on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation are currently being developed in many member countries and in the context of the 7th Framework Programme. On the policy side, the European Commission published its Green Paper on adaptation in 2007, to be followed by a White Paper by the end of 2008 with concrete proposals for action. This report The main part of this report summarises the relevance, past trends and future projections for about 40 indicators (from 22 in the 2004 report). The indicators address atmosphere and climate, the cryosphere, marine systems, terrestrial systems and biodiversity, agriculture and forestry, soil, water quantity (including floods and droughts), water quality and fresh water ecology, and human health. After a brief introduction, several chapters deal in a general way with the changes in the climate system and the observed and projected impacts. The report ends with chapters on adaptation and the economics of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies and policies, and data availability and uncertainty.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Water models and scenarios inventory for the Danube region

This technical report presents an inventory of existing models currently used in the Danube Region by local, regional, national authorities and scientific institutes for the development of a hydro-economic multi-model ensemble for the Danube with a common database. It also presents a first identification of regional scenarios of policy options relevant for river basin management planning.JRC.H.1-Water Resource

Configuration of a reference scenario for the land use modelling platform

The definition of the Reference Scenario, given in the Energy Trends to 2030 publication by DG ENER (2009 update ), assumes full implementation of the Climate and Energy package. The legislation included within the Climate and Energy Package is reflective of the legally binding targets to ensure that the EU meets its climate and energy targets for 2020. This scenario assumes that national targets under the Renewables directive (2009/28/EC) and the GHG Effort-sharing decision (2009/406/EC) are achieved. The Reference scenario is one of three energy trends scenarios, used so far for the Energy 2050 Roadmap Impact assessment . The scenarios are derived with the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab). The PRIMES model is key to the definition of the scenarios because of its energy focus. The Reference Scenario itself is derived within PRIMES and is supported by other specialised models downstream. The purpose of this document is to describe how the LUMP was configured in order to be consistent with the PRIMES and other upstream models within the integrated modelling chain, including the incorporation of the legally binding objectives, directives and guidelines. In order to be coherent with the IA accompanying the Communication on the Energy Roadmap 2050, new policies adopted up until March 2010 were implemented in so far as possible. The implementation has not yet been finalized and this document will be refreshed and re-distributed in its final form once the Reference Scenario has been fully configured.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

How can climate change be incorporated in river basin management plans under the WFD? Report from the EurAqua conference 2008

This report is based on the EurAqua conference 2008: "How can climate change be incorporated in river basin management plans under the WFD?". The conference focused on recent development in relevant EU policy, on challenges for WFD-based water management, and on the science-to-policy interface regarding adaptations to climate change impacts. This report provides recommendations for incorporating climate change considerations into river basin management plans, and identifies relevant research needs with emphasis on ecology, modelling and uncertainty.NIV

The State of Soil in Europe : A contribution of the JRC to the European Environment Agency’s Environment State and Outlook Report— SOER 2010

This report presents a pan-European perspective on the state soil in Europe in light of available data held within the European Soil Data Centre (ESDAC) and the research activities within the Joint Research Centre’s Soil Action. Managed by the JRC on behalf of EU institutions, the ESDAC operates as a focal point for pan-European data and information on soil. The core of this report was prepared as the Soil Assessment (EEA, 2010f) of the ‘Environment — state and outlook 2010 Report’, generally referred to as the SOER 2010. Coordinated by the European Environment Agency, the SOER series is aimed primarily at policymakers, in Europe and beyond, involved with framing and implementing policies that could support environmental improvements in Europe. The information also helps European citizens to better understand, care for and improve Europe's environment. The soil assessment was one of a set of 13 Europe-wide thematic assessments of key environmental themes and the only one coordinated by the JRC. The initial contribution from the JRC to the SOER exercise has been updated with additional material that could not be included in the SOER due to space restrictions, together with supplementary information that was not available at the time of the publication of the original text. The report describes the knowledge and understanding of the state of soil in Europe and the main trends, outlook and policy responses for the key processes affecting soil resources in Europe. Unfortunately, our knowledge base on many of the key functions of soil that deliver vital environmental services and goods are still poorly developed. This aspect will be a key focus of the activities of the Soil Action for the next SOER, foreseen for 2015. A set of pertinent issues and facts from the assessment are presented in the Key Messages section that can be found at the start of this report. Much more information and data can be found that the web sites of the ESDAC (http://esdac.jrc.ec.europa.eu) or the JRC Soil Action (http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu). All SOER 2010 outputs are available on the SOER 2010 website: www.eea.europa.eu/soer.JRC.H.5-Land Resources Managemen

LUISA Dynamic Land Functions: Catalogue of Indicators – Release I: EU Reference Scenario 2013 LUISA Platform - Updated Configuration 2014

The concept of ‘dynamic land function’ is a new notion for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. A land function can be societal (e.g. provision of housing, leisure and recreation), economic (e.g. provision of production factors - employment, investments, energy – or provision of manufacturing products and services – food, fuels, consumer goods, etc.) or environmental (e.g. supply of ecosystem services). Land functions are temporally and spatially dynamic, and are constrained and driven by natural, socio-economic, and techno-economic processes. Based on the concept of ‘land function’ and beyond a traditional land use model, the Land-Use based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. The ultimate product of LUISA is a set of territorial indicators that can be grouped and combined according to the ‘land function’ of interest and/or to the sector under assessment. The herein presented indicators measure the provision of land functions in the period 2010-2050, according to the EU Reference Scenario (LUISA, updated configuration 2014), consistent with settings (economic and demographic in particular) and policies in place in 2013 (hence including the 2020 renewable energy targets). The indicators are aggregated by Member States and Regions (Administrative Units NUTS-2) and can be employed as benchmark to monitor sectorial and territorial evolutions of alternative scenarios (e.g. to simulate policy options or specific measures), and for future updates of the reference scenario, to capture policy impacts (for example when changing energy targets) and their territorial effects. This catalogue aims to provide the description of the land functions and the list of related indicators and an indicator factsheet (metadata). 30 indicators, out of the more than 50 currently produced by LUISA, are included in the first release of the catalogue. The catalogue is periodically up-dated, following the updates of the configurations of the LUISA modelling platform and the definition, computation and validation of new indicators. Indicators and basic spatial layers used for the simulations will be made available in the frame of the framework for the management of knowledge and dissemination of information being set up by the Pilot Knowledge Centre on Territorial Policies.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Building a monitoring system for the EU bioeconomy

The new EU Bioeconomy Strategy, adopted in 2018 is more relevant within the actual political, environmental and social context than ever before. In these times of acute awareness of global climate change impacts and related challenges for sustainable development, the EU Bioeconomy is perceived a crucial stepping stone to changing our whole development paradigm and to trigger systemic change. Bioeconomy is intended to contribute to the decarbonisation of our economy, to catalyse changes in consumer habits and will modernise our industries throughout the value chain. But is it all good? At what cost to primary productions systems? Can the bioeconomy really deliver on its promises while ensuring biodiversity enhancement and the improvement of our planet’s overall health? To what extent will societies benefit from a transition from a fossil-based to a bio-based economy? This document describes the first year of the development of the EU Bioeconomy Monitoring System by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) in collaboration with experts throughout European and International organisations, EU Member States, Commission Services and other stakeholders to assess questions such as those posed above. The framework is designed to house several basic indicators that are, analogous to the instruments of a symphony, in themselves useful and meaningful but whose value is enhanced once they are placed within an orchestra. Only when the indicators interplay jointly the ensemble is capable of estimating the progress of EU bioeconomy and its contribution towards the Sustainable Development Goals, highlighting related trade-offs and synergies. In this first year, the development of the monitoring system has focused on structuring the framework, thus creating a better understanding of the bioeconomy as it is presented in various sources at national, EU and international levels. Criteria have been established to assess indicator quality, which is relevant to the final decision on indicator inclusion. This document represents a status report on the development of the EU-wide monitoring system for the Bioeconomy and by no means does it constitute the finished work. Comments are always welcome, please write to: [email protected]

Towards an operationalisation of nature-based solutions for natural hazards

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are being promoted as adaptive measures against predicted increasing hydrometeorological hazards (HMHs), such as heatwaves and floods which have already caused significant loss of life and economic damage across the globe. However, the underpinning factors such as policy framework, end-users' interests and participation for NBS design and operationalisation are yet to be established. We discuss the operationalisation and implementation processes of NBS by means of a novel concept of Open-Air Laboratories (OAL) for its wider acceptance. The design and implementation of environmentally, economically, technically and socio-culturally sustainable NBS require inter- and transdisciplinary approaches which could be achieved by fostering co-creation processes by engaging stakeholders across various sectors and levels, inspiring more effective use of skills, diverse knowledge, manpower and resources, and connecting and harmonising the adaptation aims. The OAL serves as a benchmark for NBS upscaling, replication and exploitation in policy-making process through monitoring by field measurement, evaluation by key performance indicators and building solid evidence on their short- and long-term multiple benefits in different climatic, environmental and socio-economic conditions, thereby alleviating the challenges of political resistance, financial barriers and lack of knowledge. We conclude that holistic management of HMHs by effective use of NBS can be achieved with standard compliant data for replicating and monitoring NBS in OALs, knowledge about policy silos and interaction between research communities and end-users. Further research is needed for multi-risk analysis of HMHs and inclusion of NBS into policy frameworks, adaptable at local, regional and national scales leading to modification in the prevalent guidelines related to HMHs. The findings of this work can be used for developing synergies between current policy frameworks, scientific research and practical implementation of NBS in Europe and beyond for its wider acceptance