Methods of Technical Prognostics Applicable to Embedded Systems

Hlavní cílem dizertace je poskytnutí uceleného pohledu na problematiku technické prognostiky, která nachází uplatnění v tzv. prediktivní údržbě založené na trvalém monitorování zařízení a odhadu úrovně degradace systému či jeho zbývající životnosti a to zejména v oblasti komplexních zařízení a strojů. V současnosti je technická diagnostika poměrně dobře zmapovaná a reálně nasazená na rozdíl od technické prognostiky, která je stále rozvíjejícím se oborem, který ovšem postrádá větší množství reálných aplikaci a navíc ne všechny metody jsou dostatečně přesné a aplikovatelné pro embedded systémy. Dizertační práce přináší přehled základních metod použitelných pro účely predikce zbývající užitné životnosti, jsou zde popsány metriky pomocí, kterých je možné jednotlivé přístupy porovnávat ať už z pohledu přesnosti, ale také i z pohledu výpočetní náročnosti. Jedno z dizertačních jader tvoří doporučení a postup pro výběr vhodné prognostické metody s ohledem na prognostická kritéria. Dalším dizertačním jádrem je představení tzv. částicového filtrovaní (particle filtering) vhodné pro model-based prognostiku s ověřením jejich implementace a porovnáním. Hlavní dizertační jádro reprezentuje případovou studii pro velmi aktuální téma prognostiky Li-Ion baterii s ohledem na trvalé monitorování. Případová studie demonstruje proces prognostiky založené na modelu a srovnává možné přístupy jednak pro odhad doby před vybitím baterie, ale také sleduje možné vlivy na degradaci baterie. Součástí práce je základní ověření modelu Li-Ion baterie a návrh prognostického procesu.The main aim of the thesis is to provide a comprehensive overview of technical prognosis, which is applied in the condition based maintenance, based on continuous device monitoring and remaining useful life estimation, especially in the field of complex equipment and machinery. Nowadays technical prognosis is still evolving discipline with limited number of real applications and is not so well developed as technical diagnostics, which is fairly well mapped and deployed in real systems. Thesis provides an overview of basic methods applicable for prediction of remaining useful life, metrics, which can help to compare the different approaches both in terms of accuracy and in terms of computational/deployment cost. One of the research cores consists of recommendations and guide for selecting the appropriate forecasting method with regard to the prognostic criteria. Second thesis research core provides description and applicability of particle filtering framework suitable for model-based forecasting. Verification of their implementation and comparison is provided. The main research topic of the thesis provides a case study for a very actual Li-Ion battery health monitoring and prognostics with respect to continuous monitoring. The case study demonstrates the prognostic process based on the model and compares the possible approaches for estimating both the runtime and capacity fade. Proposed methodology is verified on real measured data.

Integrating IVHM and Asset Design

Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) describes a set of capabilities that enable effective and efficient maintenance and operation of the target vehicle. It accounts for the collection of data, conducting analysis, and supporting the decision-making process for sustainment and operation. The design of IVHM systems endeavours to account for all causes of failure in a disciplined, systems engineering, manner. With industry striving to reduce through-life cost, IVHM is a powerful tool to give forewarning of impending failure and hence control over the outcome. Benefits have been realised from this approach across a number of different sectors but, hindering our ability to realise further benefit from this maturing technology, is the fact that IVHM is still treated as added on to the design of the asset, rather than being a sub-system in its own right, fully integrated with the asset design. The elevation and integration of IVHM in this way will enable architectures to be chosen that accommodate health ready sub-systems from the supply chain and design trade-offs to be made, to name but two major benefits. Barriers to IVHM being integrated with the asset design are examined in this paper. The paper presents progress in overcoming them, and suggests potential solutions for those that remain. It addresses the IVHM system design from a systems engineering perspective and the integration with the asset design will be described within an industrial design process

Integrating IVHM and asset design

Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) describes a set of capabilities that enable effective and efficient maintenance and operation of the target vehicle. It accounts for the collecting of data, conducting analysis, and supporting the decision-making process for sustainment and operation. The design of IVHM systems endeavours to account for all causes of failure in a disciplined, systems engineering, manner. With industry striving to reduce through-life cost, IVHM is a powerful tool to give forewarning of impending failure and hence control over the outcome. Benefits have been realised from this approach across a number of different sectors but, hindering our ability to realise further benefit from this maturing technology, is the fact that IVHM is still treated as added on to the design of the asset, rather than being a sub-system in its own right, fully integrated with the asset design. The elevation and integration of IVHM in this way will enable architectures to be chosen that accommodate health ready sub-systems from the supply chain and design trade-offs to be made, to name but two major benefits. Barriers to IVHM being integrated with the asset design are examined in this paper. The paper presents progress in overcoming them, and suggests potential solutions for those that remain. It addresses the IVHM system design from a systems engineering perspective and the integration with the asset design will be described within an industrial design process

A Similarity-Based Prognostics Approach for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

Physics-based and data-driven models are the two major prognostic approaches in the literature with their own advantages and disadvantages. This paper presents a similarity-based data-driven prognostic methodology and efficiency analysis study on remaining useful life estimation results. A similarity-based prognostic model is modified to employ the most similar training samples for RUL estimations on each time instance. The presented model is tested on; Virkler’s fatigue crack growth dataset, a drilling process degradation dataset, and a sliding chair degradation of a turnout system dataset. Prediction performances are compared utilizing an evaluation metric. Efficiency analysis of optimization results show that the modified similarity-based model performs better than the original definition

Major challenges in prognostics: study on benchmarking prognostic datasets

Even though prognostics has been defined to be one of the most difficult tasks in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM), many studies have reported promising results in recent years. The nature of the prognostics problem is different from diagnostics with its own challenges. There exist two major approaches to prognostics: data-driven and physics-based models. This paper aims to present the major challenges in both of these approaches by examining a number of published datasets for their suitability for analysis. Data-driven methods require sufficient samples that were run until failure whereas physics-based methods need physics of failure progression

Prognostics: Design, Implementation, and Challenges

Prognostics is an essential part of condition-based maintenance (CBM), described as predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of a system. It is also a key technology for an integrated vehicle health management (IVHM) system that leads to improved safety and reliability. A vast amount of research has been presented in the literature to develop prognostics models that are able to predict a system’s RUL. These models can be broadly categorised into experience-based models, data-driven models and physics-based models. Therefore, careful consideration needs to be given to selecting which prognostics model to take forward and apply for each real application. Currently, developing reliable prognostics models in real life is challenging for various reasons, such as the design complexity associated with a system, the high uncertainty and its propagation in the degradation, system level prognostics, the evaluation framework and a lack of prognostics standards. This paper is written with the aim to bring forth the challenges and opportunities for developing prognostics models for complex systems and making researchers aware of these challenges and opportunities

A simple state-based prognostic model for filter clogging

In today's maintenance planning, fuel filters are replaced or cleaned on a regular basis. Monitoring and implementation of prognostics on filtration system have the potential to avoid costs and increase safety. Prognostics is a fundamental technology within Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM). Prognostic models can be categorised into three major categories: 1) Physics-based models 2) Data-driven models 3) Experience-based models. One of the challenges in the progression of the clogging filter failure is the inability to observe the natural clogging filter failure due to time constraint. This paper presents a simple solution to collect data for a clogging filter failure. Also, it represents a simple state-based prognostic with duration information (SSPD) method that aims to detect and forecast clogging of filter in a laboratory based fuel rig system. The progression of the clogging filter failure is created unnaturally. The degradation level is divided into several groups. Each group is defined as a state in the failure progression of clogging filter. Then, the data is collected to create the clogging filter progression states unnaturally. The SSPD method consists of three steps: clustering, clustering evaluation, and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation. Prognosis results show that the SSPD method is able to predicate the RUL of the clogging filter accurately

Continuous maintenance and the future – Foundations and technological challenges

High value and long life products require continuous maintenance throughout their life cycle to achieve required performance with optimum through-life cost. This paper presents foundations and technologies required to offer the maintenance service. Component and system level degradation science, assessment and modelling along with life cycle ‘big data’ analytics are the two most important knowledge and skill base required for the continuous maintenance. Advanced computing and visualisation technologies will improve efficiency of the maintenance and reduce through-life cost of the product. Future of continuous maintenance within the Industry 4.0 context also identifies the role of IoT, standards and cyber security

Prognostic Reasoner based adaptive power management system for a more electric aircraft

This research work presents a novel approach that addresses the concept of an adaptive power management system design and development framed in the Prognostics and Health Monitoring(PHM) perspective of an Electrical power Generation and distribution system(EPGS).PHM algorithms were developed to detect the health status of EPGS components which can accurately predict the failures and also able to calculate the Remaining Useful Life(RUL), and in many cases reconfigure for the identified system and subsystem faults. By introducing these approach on Electrical power Management system controller, we are gaining a few minutes lead time to failures with an accurate prediction horizon on critical systems and subsystems components that may introduce catastrophic secondary damages including loss of aircraft. The warning time on critical components and related system reconfiguration must permits safe return to landing as the minimum criteria and would enhance safety. A distributed architecture has been developed for the dynamic power management for electrical distribution system by which all the electrically supplied loads can be effectively controlled.A hybrid mathematical model based on the Direct-Quadrature (d-q) axis transformation of the generator have been formulated for studying various structural and parametric faults. The different failure modes were generated by injecting faults into the electrical power system using a fault injection mechanism. The data captured during these studies have been recorded to form a “Failure Database” for electrical system. A hardware in loop experimental study were carried out to validate the power management algorithm with FPGA-DSP controller. In order to meet the reliability requirements a Tri-redundant electrical power management system based on DSP and FPGA has been develope