A knowledge based real-time travel time prediction system for urban network

[[abstract]]Many approaches had been proposed for travel time prediction in these decades; most of them focus on the predicting the travel time on freeway or simple arterial network. Travel time prediction for urban network in real time is hard to achieve for several reasons: complexity and path routing problem in urban network, unavailability of real-time sensor data, spatiotemporal data coverage problem, and lacking real-time events consideration. In this paper, we propose a knowledge based real-time travel time prediction model which contains real-time and historical travel time predictors to discover traffic patterns from the raw data of location based services by data mining technique and transform them to travel time prediction rules. Besides, dynamic weight combination of the two predictors by meta-rules is proposed to provide a real-time traffic event response mechanism to enhance the precision of the travel time prediction. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

A knowledge based real-time travel time prediction system for urban network

[[abstract]]Many approaches had been proposed for travel time prediction in these decades; most of them focus on the predicting the travel time on freeway or simple arterial network. Travel time prediction for urban network in real time is hard to achieve for several reasons: complexity and path routing problem in urban network, unavailability of real-time sensor data, spatiotemporal data coverage problem, and lacking real-time events consideration. In this paper, we propose a knowledge based real-time travel time prediction model which contains real-time and historical travel time predictors to discover traffic patterns from the raw data of location based services by data mining technique and transform them to travel time prediction rules. Besides, dynamic weight combination of the two predictors by meta-rules is proposed to provide a real-time traffic event response mechanism to enhance the precision of the travel time prediction. © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

The IPERMOB System for Effective Real-Time Road Travel Time Measurement and Prediction

Accurate, real-time measurement and estimation of road travel time is considered a central problem in the design of advanced Intelligent Transportation Systems. In particular, whether eective, real-time collection of travel time measurements in a urban area is possible is, to the best of our knowledge, still an open problem. In this paper, we introduce the IPERMOB system for efficient, real-time collection of travel time measurements in urban areas through vehicular networks. We demonstrate that travel time measurements can be accurately estimated onboard GPS-equipped vehicles, and delivered to a centralized server within a few seconds by sending a single message. Furthermore, in IPERMOB locations of travel time checkpoints can be dynamically changed through software reconfiguration, thus at a very limited cost as compared to the enormous costs of, say, installing and/or changing location of automatic vehicle identification equipment. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through extensive travel time collection campaigns. In particular, our technique is shown to estimate travel time with an accuracy below 1%, with two-, three-orders of magnitude savings in both communication and storage resources with respect to existing techniques based on centralized collection of GPS traces. In the last part of the paper, we further show how real-time travel time measurements can be exploited to perform accurate, short range travel time predictions in situations where existing travel time prediction approaches are challenged (e.g., in presence of traffic congestion). The effects of vehicular network penetration rate on accuracy of travel time prediction are also discusse

Assessing the Impact of Game Day Schedule and Opponents on Travel Patterns and Route Choice using Big Data Analytics

The transportation system is crucial for transferring people and goods from point A to point B. However, its reliability can be decreased by unanticipated congestion resulting from planned special events. For example, sporting events collect large crowds of people at specific venues on game days and disrupt normal traffic patterns. The goal of this study was to understand issues related to road traffic management during major sporting events by using widely available INRIX data to compare travel patterns and behaviors on game days against those on normal days. A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the impact of all Nebraska Cornhuskers football games over five years on traffic congestion on five major routes in Nebraska. We attempted to identify hotspots, the unusually high-risk zones in a spatiotemporal space containing traffic congestion that occur on almost all game days. For hotspot detection, we utilized a method called Multi-EigenSpot, which is able to detect multiple hotspots in a spatiotemporal space. With this algorithm, we were able to detect traffic hotspot clusters on the five chosen routes in Nebraska. After detecting the hotspots, we identified the factors affecting the sizes of hotspots and other parameters. The start time of the game and the Cornhuskers’ opponent for a given game are two important factors affecting the number of people coming to Lincoln, Nebraska, on game days. Finally, the Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) approach was applied to forecast the start times and locations of hotspot clusters in 2018 with a weighted mean absolute percentage error (WMAPE) of 13.8%

Assessing spatiotemporal correlations from data for short-term traffic prediction using multi-task learning

Traffic flow prediction is a fundamental problem for efficient transportation control and management. However, most current data-driven traffic prediction work found in the literature have focused on predicting traffic from an individual task perspective, and have not fully leveraged the implicit knowledge present in a road-network through space and time correlations. Such correlations are now far easier to isolate due to the recent profusion of traffic data sources and more specifically their wide geographic spread. In this paper, we take a multi-task learning (MTL) approach whose fundamental aim is to improve the generalization performance by leveraging the domain-specific information contained in related tasks that are jointly learned. In addition, another common factor found in the literature is that a historical dataset is used for the calibration and the assessment of the proposed approach, without dealing in any explicit or implicit way with the frequent challenges found in real-time prediction. In contrast, we adopt a different approach which faces this problem from a point of view of streams of data, and thus the learning procedure is undertaken online, giving greater importance to the most recent data, making data-driven decisions online, and undoing decisions which are no longer optimal. In the experiments presented we achieve a more compact and consistent knowledge in the form of rules automatically extracted from data, while maintaining or even improving, in some cases, the performance over single-task learning (STL).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version