Visual Interactive Simulation: History, Recent Developments, and Major Issues

Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS) has dominated discrete-event simulation in the United Kingdom throughout the eighties. Conceived and initially implemented by Hurrion, who also coined the phrase, VIS first gained widespread exposure through the package SEE-WHY. The ideas behind VIS are fundamentally different from what is referred to in the United States as animation, since the prime motivater is user interaction with the running simulation, rather than just portrayal of the simulation. This paper presents a short history of VIS, and discusses some of the research and development that has been undertaken in the the United Kingdom and North America. Following presentation of an example of VIS, the state of VIS is discussed, and a number of generally accepted guidelines for doing VIS are presented. a number of recent developments in VIS, many of them also relevant to animation, are discussed, and four major issues in the research and practice of VIS are presented

India’s trade potential and export opportunities for spices

Economic growth and development of a country rely on trade as it serves as a driving force with efficient utilization of factor of endowments. Several commodities are traded world-wide, among them spices which has a long history of being one of the highly traded commodity. Developing countries including India are the leading producer and exporter of spices in the world. The demand for Indian spices has gone up in the United States of America, Vietnam, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, etc. The study assess the comparative advantage of major spices exporting countries for pepper, cardamom and turmeric-based on data available in International Trade Centre. To analyse the effect of trade liberalisation, a simulation model (SMART) developed by UNCTAD was used to estimate trade creation, diversion and revenue effect on importing and exporting countries. The result shows that India has a comparative advantage in the export of Turmeric, Guatemala in Cardamom and Vietnam in Pepper. The impact of tariff relief on India has greater advantage, which has trade creation in the export of cardamom and turmeric. Whereas in pepper, comparatively, trade diversion is higher than trade creation, indicating that less efficient countries are given a chance to export to the top importing countries due to a reduction in tariff. Indian spice exporters should focus on promoting or exporting spices to countries like Netherlands, United States, United Kingdom, and Germany

The view from elsewhere: perspectives on ALife Modeling

Many artificial life researchers stress the interdisciplinary character of the field. Against such a backdrop, this report reviews and discusses artificial life, as it is depicted in, and as it interfaces with, adjacent disciplines (in particular, philosophy, biology, and linguistics), and in the light of a specific historical example of interdisciplinary research (namely cybernetics) with which artificial life shares many features. This report grew out of a workshop held at the Sixth European Conference on Artificial Life in Prague and features individual contributions from the workshop's eight speakers, plus a section designed to reflect the debates that took place during the workshop's discussion sessions. The major theme that emerged during these sessions was the identity and status of artificial life as a scientific endeavor

Human Impacts on Forest Biodiversity in Protected Walnut-Fruit Forests in Kyrgyzstan

We used a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics, supported by empirical field data and socioeconomic data, to examine the impacts of human disturbances on a protected forest landscape in Kyrgyzstan. Local use of 27 fruit and nut species was recorded and modeled. Results indicated that in the presence of fuelwood cutting with or without grazing, species of high socioeconomic impor- tance such as Juglans regia, Malus spp., and Armeniaca vulgaris were largely eliminated from the landscape after 50–150 yr. In the absence of disturbance or in the presence of grazing only, decline of these species occurred at a much lower rate, owing to competi- tive interactions between tree species. This suggests that the current intensity of fuelwood harvesting is not sustainable. Conversely, cur- rent grazing intensities were found to have relatively little impact on forest structure and composition, and could potentially play a positive role in supporting regeneration of tree species. These results indicate that both positive and negative impacts on biodiversity can arise from human populations living within a protected area. Potentially, these could be reconciled through the development of participatory approaches to conservation management within this reserve, to ensure the maintenance of its high conservation value while meeting human needs

Crashworthiness assessment considering the dynamic damage and failure of a dual phase automotive steel

Analyzing crash worthiness of the automotive parts has been posing a great challenge in the sheet metal and automotive industry since several decades. The present contribution will focus on one of the most urging challenges of the crash worthiness simulations, namely, an enhanced constitutive formulation to predict the failure and cracking of structural parts made from high strength steel sheets under impact. A hybrid extended Modified Bai Wierzbicki damage plasticity model is devised to this end. The material model calibrated using the experimental data covering high strain rate deformation, damage and failure successfully predicted the instability and subsequent response of the crash box under impact. Simulation results provide the deformation shape and deformation energy in order to predict and evaluate the vehicle crashworthiness. The simulations further helped in discovering the irrefutable impact of strain rate and stress state on the impact response of the auto-body structure. The strain rate is found to adequately affect the energy absorption capacity of the crash box structure both in terms of impact load and fold formation whereas the complex stress state has a direct association to the development of instability within the structure and early damage appearance within the folds

Simultaneous reconstruction of evolutionary history and epidemiological dynamics from viral sequences with the birth-death SIR model

The evolution of RNA viruses such as HIV, Hepatitis C and Influenza virus occurs so rapidly that the viruses' genomes contain information on past ecological dynamics. Hence, we develop a phylodynamic method that enables the joint estimation of epidemiological parameters and phylogenetic history. Based on a compartmental susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model, this method provides separate information on incidence and prevalence of infections. Detailed information on the interaction of host population dynamics and evolutionary history can inform decisions on how to contain or entirely avoid disease outbreaks. We apply our Birth-Death SIR method (BDSIR) to two viral data sets. First, five human immunodeficiency virus type 1 clusters sampled in the United Kingdom between 1999 and 2003 are analyzed. The estimated basic reproduction ratios range from 1.9 to 3.2 among the clusters. All clusters show a decline in the growth rate of the local epidemic in the middle or end of the 90's. The analysis of a hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 2c data set shows that the local epidemic in the C\'ordoban city Cruz del Eje originated around 1906 (median), coinciding with an immigration wave from Europe to central Argentina that dates from 1880--1920. The estimated time of epidemic peak is around 1970.Comment: Journal link: http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/11/94/20131106.ful

From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

A model to estimate the lifetime health outcomes of patients with Type 2 diabetes: the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS no. 68)

<i>Aims/hypothesis</i> The aim of this study was to develop a simulation model for Type 2 diabetes that can be used to estimate the likely occurrence of major diabetes-related complications over a lifetime, in order to calculate health economic outcomes such as quality-adjusted life expectancy. <i>Methods</i> Equations for forecasting the occurrence of seven diabetes-related complications and death were estimated using data on 3642 patients from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). After examining the internal validity, the UKPDS Outcomes Model was used to simulate the mean difference in expected quality-adjusted life years between the UKPDS regimens of intensive and conventional blood glucose control. <i>Results</i> The models forecasts fell within the 95% confidence interval for the occurrence of observed events during the UKPDS follow-up period. When the model was used to simulate event history over patients lifetimes, those treated with a regimen of conventional glucose control could expect 16.35 undiscounted quality-adjusted life years, and those receiving treatment with intensive glucose control could expect 16.62 quality-adjusted life years, a difference of 0.27 (95% CI: –0.48 to 1.03). <i>Conclusions/interpretations</i> The UKPDS Outcomes Model is able to simulate event histories that closely match observed outcomes in the UKPDS and that can be extrapolated over patients lifetimes. Its validity in estimating outcomes in other groups of patients, however, remains to be evaluated. The model allows simulation of a range of long-term outcomes, which should assist in informing future economic evaluations of interventions in Type 2 diabetes

"A step into the abyss" Transmedia in the UK Games and Television Industries

This article uses a media industries studies perspective to investigate the current state of transmedia production in the UK. Analysing the discursive statements of a range of industry participants from both UK television and games industries, the article reveals a series of contradictions and misunderstandings that may be limiting the effectiveness of multi-platform projects. By comparing overlapping discursive patterns around attitudes to risk, measures of success, authorship between the two industries, and repeated concerns over the balance of creative and commercial imperatives, the article argues that existing hierarchies of power between media industries threaten to derail future convergence