Review of automated time series forecasting pipelines

Time series forecasting is fundamental for various use cases in different domains such as energy systems and economics. Creating a forecasting model for a specific use case requires an iterative and complex design process. The typical design process includes the five sections (1) data pre-processing, (2) feature engineering, (3) hyperparameter optimization, (4) forecasting method selection, and (5) forecast ensembling, which are commonly organized in a pipeline structure. One promising approach to handle the ever-growing demand for time series forecasts is automating this design process. The present paper, thus, analyzes the existing literature on automated time series forecasting pipelines to investigate how to automate the design process of forecasting models. Thereby, we consider both Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) and automated statistical forecasting methods in a single forecasting pipeline. For this purpose, we firstly present and compare the proposed automation methods for each pipeline section. Secondly, we analyze the automation methods regarding their interaction, combination, and coverage of the five pipeline sections. For both, we discuss the literature, identify problems, give recommendations, and suggest future research. This review reveals that the majority of papers only cover two or three of the five pipeline sections. We conclude that future research has to holistically consider the automation of the forecasting pipeline to enable the large-scale application of time series forecasting

Review of automated time series forecasting pipelines

Time series forecasting is fundamental for various use cases in different domains such as energy systems and economics. Creating a forecasting model for a specific use case requires an iterative and complex design process. The typical design process includes the five sections (1) data pre-processing, (2) feature engineering, (3) hyperparameter optimization, (4) forecasting method selection, and (5) forecast ensembling, which are commonly organized in a pipeline structure. One promising approach to handle the ever-growing demand for time series forecasts is automating this design process. The present paper, thus, analyzes the existing literature on automated time series forecasting pipelines to investigate how to automate the design process of forecasting models. Thereby, we consider both Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) and automated statistical forecasting methods in a single forecasting pipeline. For this purpose, we firstly present and compare the proposed automation methods for each pipeline section. Secondly, we analyze the automation methods regarding their interaction, combination, and coverage of the five pipeline sections. For both, we discuss the literature, identify problems, give recommendations, and suggest future research. This review reveals that the majority of papers only cover two or three of the five pipeline sections. We conclude that future research has to holistically consider the automation of the forecasting pipeline to enable the large-scale application of time series forecasting

An Improved Artificial Intelligence Based on Gray Wolf Optimization and Cultural Algorithm to Predict Demand for Dairy Products: A Case Study

This paper provides an integrated framework based on statistical tests, time series neural network and improved multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLP) with novel meta-heuristic algorithms in order to obtain best prediction of dairy product demand (DPD) in Iran. At first, a series of economic and social indicators that seemed to be effective in the demand for dairy products is identified. Then, the ineffective indices are eliminated by using Pearson correlation coefficient, and statistically significant variables are determined. Then, MLP is improved with the help of novel meta-heuristic algorithms such as gray wolf optimization and cultural algorithm. The designed hybrid method is used to predict the DPD in Iran by using data from 2013 to 2017. The results show that the MLP offers 71.9% of the coefficient of determination, which is better compared to the other two methods if no improvement is achieved

Data Mining

The availability of big data due to computerization and automation has generated an urgent need for new techniques to analyze and convert big data into useful information and knowledge. Data mining is a promising and leading-edge technology for mining large volumes of data, looking for hidden information, and aiding knowledge discovery. It can be used for characterization, classification, discrimination, anomaly detection, association, clustering, trend or evolution prediction, and much more in fields such as science, medicine, economics, engineering, computers, and even business analytics. This book presents basic concepts, ideas, and research in data mining

Artificial Intelligence and Its Application in Optimization under Uncertainty

Nowadays, the increase in data acquisition and availability and complexity around optimization make it imperative to jointly use artificial intelligence (AI) and optimization for devising data-driven and intelligent decision support systems (DSS). A DSS can be successful if large amounts of interactive data proceed fast and robustly and extract useful information and knowledge to help decision-making. In this context, the data-driven approach has gained prominence due to its provision of insights for decision-making and easy implementation. The data-driven approach can discover various database patterns without relying on prior knowledge while also handling flexible objectives and multiple scenarios. This chapter reviews recent advances in data-driven optimization, highlighting the promise of data-driven optimization that integrates mathematical programming and machine learning (ML) for decision-making under uncertainty and identifies potential research opportunities. This chapter provides guidelines and implications for researchers, managers, and practitioners in operations research who want to advance their decision-making capabilities under uncertainty concerning data-driven optimization. Then, a comprehensive review and classification of the relevant publications on the data-driven stochastic program, data-driven robust optimization, and data-driven chance-constrained are presented. This chapter also identifies fertile avenues for future research that focus on deep-data-driven optimization, deep data-driven models, as well as online learning-based data-driven optimization. Perspectives on reinforcement learning (RL)-based data-driven optimization and deep RL for solving NP-hard problems are discussed. We investigate the application of data-driven optimization in different case studies to demonstrate improvements in operational performance over conventional optimization methodology. Finally, some managerial implications and some future directions are provided

Mathematical optimization and learning models to address uncertainties and sustainability of supply chain management

As concerns about climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution have become more widespread, new worldwide challenges deal with the protection of the environment and the conservation of natural resources. Thus, in order to empower sustainability and circular economy ambitions, the world has shifted to embrace sustainable practices and policies. This is carried out, primarily, through the implementation of sustainable business practices and increased investments in green technology. Advanced information systems, digital technologies and mathematical models are required to respond to the demanding targets of the sustainability paradigm. This trend is expanding with the growing interest in production and services sustainability in order to achieve economic growth and development while preventing their negative impact on the environment. A significant step forward in this direction is enabled by Supply Chain Management (SCM) practices that exploit mathematical and statistical modeling to better support decisions affecting both profitability and sustainability targets. Indeed, these targets should not be approached as competing goals, but rather addressed simultaneously within a comprehensive vision that responds adequately to both of them. Accordingly, Green Supply Chain Management (GSCM) can achieve its goals through innovative management approaches that consider sustainable efficiency and profitability to be clearly linked by the savings that result from applying optimization techniques. To confirm the above, there is a growing trend of applying mathematical optimization models for enhancing decision-making in pursuit of both environmental and profit performance. Indeed, GSCM takes into account many decision problems, such as facility location, capacity allocation, production planning and vehicle routing. Besides sustainability, uncertainty is another critical issue in Supply Chain Management (SCM). Considering a deterministic approach would definitely fail to provide concrete decision support when modeling those kinds of scenarios. According to various hypothesis and strategies, uncertainties can be addressed by exploiting several modeling approaches arising from statistics, statistical learning and mathematical programming. While statistical and learning models accounts variability by definition, Robust Optimization (RO) is a particular modeling approach that is commonly applied in solving mathematical programming problems where a certain set of parameters are subject to uncertainty. In this dissertation, mathematical and learning models are exploited according to different approaches and models combinations, providing new formulations and frameworks to address strategic and operational problems of GSCM under uncertainty. All models and frameworks presented in this dissertation are tested and validated on real-case instances

Modelling and Optimisation of Space Allocation and layout Problems

This thesis investigates the development of optimisation-based, decision-making frameworks for allocation problems related to manufacturing, warehousing, logistics, and retailing. Since associated costs with these areas constitute significant parts to the overall supply chain cost, mathematical models of enhanced fidelity are required to obtain optimal decisions for i) pallet loading, ii) assortment, and iii) product shelf space, which will be the main research focus of this thesis. For the Manufactures Pallet loading problems (MPLP), novel single- and multi-objective Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) models have been proposed, which generate optimal layouts of improved 2D structure based on a block representation. The approach uses a Complexity Index metric, which aids in comparing 2 pallet layouts that share the same pallet size and number of boxes loaded but with different box arrangements. The proposed algorithm has been tested against available data-sets in literature. In the area of Assortments (optimal 2D packing within given containers) , an iterative MILP algorithm has been developed to provide a diverse set of solutions within pre-specified range of key performance metrics. In addition, a basic software prototype, based on AIMMS platform, has been developed using a user-friendly interface so as to facilitate user interaction with a visual display of the solutions obtained. In Shelf- Space Allocation (SSAP) problem, the relationship between the demand and the retailer shelf space allocated to each item is defined as space elasticity. Most of existing literature considers the problem with stationary demand and fixed space elasticities. In this part of the thesis, a dynamic framework has been proposed to forecast space elasticities based on historical data using standard time-series methodologies. In addition, an optimisation mathematical model has been implemented using the forecasted space elasticities to provide the retailer with optimal shelf space thus resulting into closer match between supply and demand and increased profitability. The applicability and effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated through a number of tests and comparisons against literature data-sets

EDLaaS : Fully Homomorphic Encryption Over Neural Network Graphs for Vision and Private Strawberry Yield Forecasting

This research was supported in part by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) studentship 2155898 grant: BB/S507453/1.Peer reviewedPublisher PD