3,161 research outputs found

    Machine Learning and Portfolio Optimization: an application to Italian FTSE-MIB Stocks

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    A model that combines econometric ARMA model with new machine learning techniques will be developed to build an efficient portfolio, composed of Italian FTSE-MIB stocks. The goal of this portfolio is to over-perform a benchmark portfolio obtained throw traditional Markowitz optimisation.A model that combines econometric ARMA model with new machine learning techniques will be developed to build an efficient portfolio, composed of Italian FTSE-MIB stocks. The goal of this portfolio is to over-perform a benchmark portfolio obtained throw traditional Markowitz optimisation

    Hybrid deep neural networks for mining heterogeneous data

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    In the era of big data, the rapidly growing flood of data represents an immense opportunity. New computational methods are desired to fully leverage the potential that exists within massive structured and unstructured data. However, decision-makers are often confronted with multiple diverse heterogeneous data sources. The heterogeneity includes different data types, different granularities, and different dimensions, posing a fundamental challenge in many applications. This dissertation focuses on designing hybrid deep neural networks for modeling various kinds of data heterogeneity. The first part of this dissertation concerns modeling diverse data types, the first kind of data heterogeneity. Specifically, image data and heterogeneous meta data are modeled. Detecting Copy Number Variations (CNVs) in genetic studies is used as a motivating example. A CNN-DNN blended neural network is proposed to authenticate CNV calls made by current state-of-art CNV detection algorithms. It utilizes hybrid deep neural networks to leverage both scatter plot image signal and heterogeneous numerical meta data for improving CNV calling and review efficiency. The second part of this dissertation deals with data of various frequencies or scales in time series data analysis, the second kind of data heterogeneity. The stock return forecasting problem in the finance field is used as a motivating example. A hybrid framework of Long-Short Term Memory and Deep Neural Network (LSTM-DNN) is developed to enrich the time-series forecasting task with static fundamental information. The application of the proposed framework is not limited to the stock return forecasting problem, but any time-series based prediction tasks. The third part of this dissertation makes an extension of LSTM-DNN framework to account for both temporal and spatial dependency among variables, common in many applications. For example, it is known that stock prices of relevant firms tend to fluctuate together. Such coherent price changes among relevant stocks are referred to a spatial dependency. In this part, Variational Auto Encoder (VAE) is first utilized to recover the latent graphical dependency structure among variables. Then a hybrid deep neural network of Graph Convolutional Network and Long-Short Term Memory network (GCN-LSTM) is developed to model both the graph structured spatial dependency and temporal dependency of variables at different scales. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed neural networks with application to solve three representative real-world problems. Additionally, the proposed frameworks can also be applied to other areas filled with similar heterogeneous inputs

    Machine Learning-Driven Decision Making based on Financial Time Series

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    L'abstract è presente nell'allegato / the abstract is in the attachmen

    The dynamics of market efficiency: testing the adaptive market hypothesis in South Africa

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    A thesis submitted to the School of Economic and Business Sciences, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph/D). Johannesburg, South Africa June 2016In recent years, the debate on market efficiency has shifted to providing alternate forms of the hypothesis, some of which are testable and can be proven false. This thesis examines one such alternative, the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH), with a focus on providing a framework for testing the dynamic (cyclical) notion of market efficiency using South African equity data (44 shares and six indices) over the period 1997 to 2014. By application of this framework, stylised facts emerged. First, the examination of market efficiency is dependent on the frequency of data. If one were to only use a single frequency of data, one might obtain conflicting conclusions. Second, by binning data into smaller sub-samples, one can obtain a pattern of whether the equity market is efficient or not. In other words, one might get a conclusion of, say, randomess, over the entire sample period of daily data, but there may be pockets of non-randomness with the daily data. Third, by running a variety of tests, one provides robustness to the results. This is a somewhat debateable issue as one could either run a variety of tests (each being an improvement over the other) or argue the theoretical merits of each test befoe selecting the more appropriate one. Fourth, analysis according to industries also adds to the result of efficiency, if markets have high concentration sectors (such as the JSE), one might be tempted to conclude that the entire JSE exhibits, say, randomness, where it could be driven by the resources sector as opposed to any other sector. Last, the use of neural networks as approximators is of benefit when examining data with less than ideal sample sizes. Examining five frequencies of data, 86% of the shares and indices exhibited a random walk under daily data, 78% under weekly data, 56% under monthly data, 22% under quarterly data and 24% under semi-annual data. The results over the entire sample period and non-overlapping sub-samples showed that this model's accuracy varied over time. Coupled with the results of the trading strategies, one can conclude that the nature of market efficiency in South Africa can be seen as time dependent, in line with the implication of the AMH.MT201

    An Automated System for Stock Market Trading Based on Logical Clustering

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    In this paper a novel clustering-based system for automated stock market trading is introduced. It relies on interpolative Boolean algebra as underlying mathematical framework used to construct logical clustering method which is the central component of the system. The system uses fundamental analysis ratios, more precisely market valuation ratios, as clustering variables to differentiate between undervaluated and overvaluated stocks. To structure investment portfolio, the proposed system uses special weighting formulas which automatically diversify investment funds. Finally, a simple trading simulation engine is developed to test our system on real market data. The proposed system was tested on Belgrade Stock Exchange historical data and was able to achieve a high rate of return and to outperform the BelexLine market index as a benchmark variable. The paper has also provided in-depth analysis of the system’s investment decision making process which reveals some exciting insights

    Stock Market Prediction via Deep Learning Techniques: A Survey

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    The stock market prediction has been a traditional yet complex problem researched within diverse research areas and application domains due to its non-linear, highly volatile and complex nature. Existing surveys on stock market prediction often focus on traditional machine learning methods instead of deep learning methods. Deep learning has dominated many domains, gained much success and popularity in recent years in stock market prediction. This motivates us to provide a structured and comprehensive overview of the research on stock market prediction focusing on deep learning techniques. We present four elaborated subtasks of stock market prediction and propose a novel taxonomy to summarize the state-of-the-art models based on deep neural networks from 2011 to 2022. In addition, we also provide detailed statistics on the datasets and evaluation metrics commonly used in the stock market. Finally, we highlight some open issues and point out several future directions by sharing some new perspectives on stock market prediction
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