Evidence from a Mediterranean country

ousa, D., Cruz-Jesus, F., Sousa, A., & Painho, M. (2021). A multivariate approach to assess the structural determinants of large wildfires: Evidence from a Mediterranean country. International Journal Of Wildland Fire, 30(4), 241-254. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF20119This paper analyses the factors behind wildfire propagation in a Mediterranean European country, Portugal, using a set of variables related to vegetation and climatic, topography and human aspects. Spatial cluster analysis was used to find homogeneous regions, and two-part regression models were used to model the contribution of the different elements driving extensive fire propagation. Our findings confirm the presence of spatial variability in the contribution exerted by most structural factors driving large wildfire spread. Additionally, the results of this study show that vegetation types, in particular the presence of shrubs, and a lack of human activities, such as agriculture, represent the main factors facilitating fire spread in this region, corroborating information from previous work. This research provides relevant input for implementation in different fields, from large fire awareness and prevention to the development of wildfire policies, as well as addressing methodological concerns in fire danger and fire risk analyses.publishersversionpublishe

中国大興安嶺地区の持続的森林管理のための環境リスク評価

筑波大学 (University of Tsukuba)201

Strategies for increasing the applicability of biological network inference

The manipulation of cellular state has many promising applications, including stem cell biology and regenerative medicine, biofuel production, and stress resistant crop development. The construction of interaction maps promises to enhance our ability to engineer cellular behavior. Within the last 15 years, many methods have been developed to infer the structure of the gene regulatory interaction map from gene abundance snapshots provided by high-throughput experimental data. However, relatively little research has focused on using gene regulatory network models for the prediction and manipulation of cellular behavior. This dissertation examines and applies strategies to utilize the predictive power of gene network models to guide experimentation and engineering efforts. First, we developed methods to improve gene network models by integrating interaction evidence sources, in order to utilize the full predictive power of the models. Next, we explored the power of networks models to guide experimental efforts through inference and analysis of a regulatory network in the pathogenic fungus Cryptococcus neoformans. Finally, we develop a novel, network-guided algorithm to select genetic interventions for engineering transcriptional state. We apply this method to select intervention strains for improving biofuel production in a mixed glucose-xylose environment. The contributions in this dissertation provide the first thorough examination, systematic application, and quantitative evaluation of the utilization of network models for guiding cellular engineering

Introduction to the special issue : historical and projected climatic changes to Australian natural hazards

Australia’s size and varied climates mean that it is affected by a range of weather-related natural hazards, including tropical and extra-tropical storms and associated extreme wind and hail, coastal and inland floods, heatwaves and bushfires. These hazards cause multiple human and environmental impacts, and collectively account for 93 % of Australian insured losses (Schuster 2013). In addition, drought—often treated distinctly from other hazards due to its more gradual onset—can cause substantial reductions in agricultural productivity, and places stress on municipal and industrial water resources and natural ecosystems. Evidence is building that the frequency and cost of natural hazards are increasing both in Australia (Insurance Council of Australia 2013; Schuster 2013) and globally (Munich Re 2014). However, understanding the cause of these changes has proved to be difficult, with increases in reporting rates (Munich Re 2014), changes in societal exposure and vulnerability (Bouwer 2011; Neumayer and Barthel 2011) and anthropogenic climate change (IPCC 2013) all potentially playing a role in explaining the observed changes. Yet although the potential causes are many, correct attribution of the observed changes is necessary in order to identify appropriate policy responses, and to predict how the frequency and severity of natural hazards might change in the future. This Special Issue focuses on the specific role of large-scale climatic changes on the observed and future incidence of Australian natural hazards. The Special Issue is divided into seven papers, each covering a major class of climate-influenced natural hazard: floods, drought, storms (including wind and hail), coastal extremes, bushfires, heatwaves and frost. The work was initiated by the Working Group on Trends and Extremes from the Australian Water and Energy Exchanges (OzEWEX) initiative, which is a regional hydroclimate project run under the auspices of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) initiative

Pathogenic landscape of transboundary zoonotic diseases in the Mexico–US border along the Rio Grande

Transboundary zoonotic diseases, several of which are vector borne, can maintain a dynamic focus and have pathogens circulating in geographic regions encircling multiple geopolitical boundaries. Global change is intensifying transboundary problems, including the spatial variation of the risk and incidence of zoonotic diseases.The complexity of these challenges can be greater in areas where rivers delineate international boundaries and encompass transitions between ecozones.The Rio Grande serves as a natural border between the US State ofTexas and the Mexican States of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, andTamaulipas. Not only do millions of people live in this transboundary region, but also a substantial amount of goods and people pass through it everyday. Moreover, it occurs over a region that functions as a corridor for animal migrations, and thus links the Neotropic and Nearctic biogeographic zones, with the latter being a known foci of zoonotic diseases. However, the pathogenic landscape of important zoonotic diseases in the southTexas–Mexico transboundary region remains to be fully understood. An international perspective on the interplay between disease systems, ecosystem processes, land use, and human behaviors is applied here to analyze landscape and spatial features of Venezuelan equine encephalitis, Hantavirus disease, Lyme Borreliosis, Leptospirosis, Bartonellosis, Chagas disease, human Babesiosis, and Leishmaniasis. Surveillance systems following the One Health approach with a regional perspective will help identifying opportunities to mitigate the health burden of those diseases on human and animal populations. It is proposed that the Mexico–US border along the Rio Grande region be viewed as a continuum landscape where zoonotic pathogens circulate regardless of national borders

The contributing factors of large wildfires : exploring the main structural factors driving large wildfire ignition and spread in central Portugal (2005-2015)

Dissertation presented as partial requirement for obtaining the Master’s degree in Statistics and Information Management, with a specialization in Information Analysis and ManagementLarge wildfires have devastating human, environmental and economic consequences and are responsible for the majority of total burned area in Mediterranean Europe, even though they account for only a marginal portion of all fire occurrences. Most predictions suggest a global intensification of fire danger, and among all European Mediterranean countries Portugal displays the highest fire incidence. The purpose of this work is to examine the main factors driving large wildfire ignition and spread in central Portugal between 2005 and 2015, contributing with empiric knowledge on their importance and variability throughout the study area. This research was successful at listing a comprehensive set of elements contributing to fire occurrence and at gathering data on these phenomena. Spatial cluster analysis was used to find homogeneous regions within the study area concerning the main factors influencing both fire ignition and burned area. Probit and two-part regression techniques were used to model the contribution of the different elements driving large fire occurrence and propagation. The main findings of this analysis confirm the presence of spatial variability in the contribution exerted by most structural factors driving large wildfire ignition and spread in central Portugal. Additionally, while vegetation characteristics appear much more relevant for fire propagation, socioeconomic elements seem to be connected to fire incidence. All in all, this research provides relevant input with implementation in different fields, from large fire awareness and prevention to the development of wildfire policies, as well as appropriate contributions to methodological concerns in fire danger and fire risk analyses.Os grandes incêndios rurais têm como consequência impactos socioeconómicos e ambientais devastadores e são responsáveis pela maior parte do total de área ardida na Europa mediterrânica, ainda que representem apenas uma fração pouco expressiva do total de ocorrências. A maioria dos estudos prevê uma intensificação do perigo de incêndio, sendo que, entre todos os países europeus da bacia mediterrânica, é Portugal quem apresenta a mais alta incidência deste fenómeno. O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar os fatores que mais contribuíram para a ignição e propagação de grandes incêndios rurais no centro de Portugal entre 2005 e 2015, concorrendo assim com conhecimento empírico relativamente à sua importância e variabilidade na área de estudo. Esta investigação conseguiu listar um conjunto abrangente de elementos que contribuem para a ocorrência de incêndios rurais, assim como reunir os dados necessários. Uma análise de clusters espacial foi aplicada para identificar regiões homogéneas dentro da área de estudo no que respeita aos principais fatores influenciando a ignição e o alastrar dos grandes incêndios. Modelos probit e em duas partes foram utilizados para analisar a contribuição dos diferentes elementos para a ocorrência e propagação dos fogos. Os resultados deste estudo confirmam a presença de variação espacial no impacto exercido pela maioria dos fatores estruturais que contribuem para a ocorrência e propagação dos grandes incêndios rurais. Por outro lado, enquanto as características da vegetação se revelam mais relevantes na perspetiva do alastrar dos incêndios, os fatores socioeconómicos parecem estar relacionados com a ignição destes fenómenos. Em suma, este estudo contribui com informação relevante, a implementar em diferentes âmbitos, desde a consciencialização das populações à prevenção e ao desenvolvimento de políticas na área dos fogos rurais. Este apresenta ainda contributos apropriados na área de metodologias de análise do perigo e risco de incêndio

Zoonoses (Project 1): Wildlife/domestic livestock interactions

The objective of this study was to synthesise the best available scientific knowledge about zoonotic disease transmission through livestock and wildlife interaction (direct or indirect), with emphasis on risk factors, drivers and trajectories of transmission, as well as promising interventions for controlling important zoonoses, based on managing the interaction between domestic livestock and wildlife. A multi-disciplinary team from the International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya, and the Royal Veterinary College, United Kingdom, with expertise in zoonoses, epidemiology, socio-economics, and wildlife, undertook the review. A database of important zoonoses was compiled and used to develop a list of priority zoonoses with a livestock-wildlife interface for developing countries. Spatial relationships between important zoonoses and land use and human population density were explored. A systematic review was carried out focussing on: disease transmission routes, risk factors for disease transmission, drivers of wildlife-livestock interactions, pathogens of wildlife capable of recombining with organisms in livestock, wildlife species that are potential sources of zoonotic pathogens, production and socio-economic factors influencing the risk of transmission, and risk management and control interventions

Applications of Satellite Earth Observations section - NEODAAS: Providing satellite data for efficient research

The NERC Earth Observation Data Acquisition and Analysis Service (NEODAAS) provides a central point of Earth Observation (EO) satellite data access and expertise for UK researchers. The service is tailored to individual users’ requirements to ensure that researchers can focus effort on their science, rather than struggling with correct use of unfamiliar satellite data

Satellite monitoring of harmful algal blooms (HABs) to protect the aquaculture industry

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) can cause sudden and considerable losses to fish farms, for example 500,000 salmon during one bloom in Shetland, and also present a threat to human health. Early warning allows the industry to take protective measures. PML's satellite monitoring of HABs is now funded by the Scottish aquaculture industry. The service involves processing EO ocean colour data from NASA and ESA in near-real time, and applying novel techniques for discriminating certain harmful blooms from harmless algae. Within the AQUA-USERS project we are extending this capability to further HAB species within several European countries