Ecohydrological Modeling in Agroecosystems: Examples and Challenges

Human societies are increasingly altering the water and biogeochemical cycles to both improve ecosystem productivity and reduce risks associated with the unpredictable variability of climatic drivers. These alterations, however, often cause large negative environmental consequences, raising the question as to how societies can ensure a sustainable use of natural resources for the future. Here we discuss how ecohydrological modeling may address these broad questions with special attention to agroecosystems. The challenges related to modeling the two‐way interaction between society and environment are illustrated by means of a dynamical model in which soil and water quality supports the growth of human society but is also degraded by excessive pressure, leading to critical transitions and sustained societal growth‐collapse cycles. We then focus on the coupled dynamics of soil water and solutes (nutrients or contaminants), emphasizing the modeling challenges, presented by the strong nonlinearities in the soil and plant system and the unpredictable hydroclimatic forcing, that need to be overcome to quantitatively analyze problems of soil water sustainability in both natural and agricultural ecosystems. We discuss applications of this framework to problems of irrigation, soil salinization, and fertilization and emphasize how optimal solutions for large‐scale, long‐term planning of soil and water resources in agroecosystems under uncertainty could be provided by methods from stochastic control, informed by physically and mathematically sound descriptions of ecohydrological and biogeochemical interactions

Climate change adaptation and vulnerability assessment of water resources systems in developing countries: a generalized framework and a feasibility study in Bangladesh

Water is the primary medium through which climate change influences the Earth’s ecosystems and therefore people’s livelihoods and wellbeing. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes have direct impact on increasing demand for freshwater resources. Taken together, the net effect of these supply and demand changes is affecting the vulnerability of water resources. The concept of ‘vulnerability’ is not straightforward as there is no universally accepted approach for assessing vulnerability. In this study, we review the evolution of approaches to vulnerability assessment related to water resources. From the current practices, we identify research gaps, and approaches to overcome these gaps a generalized assessment framework is developed. A feasibility study is then presented in the context of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin (LBRB). The results of the feasibility study identify the current main constraints (e.g., lack of institutional coordination) and opportunities (e.g., adaptation) of LBRB. The results of this study can be helpful for innovative research and management initiatives and the described framework can be widely used as a guideline for the vulnerability assessment of water resources systems, particularly in developing countries

Integrated economic-hydrologic water modeling at the basin scale: the Maipo river basin

Increasing competition for water across sectors increases the importance of the river basin as the appropriate unit of analysis to address the challenges facing water resources management; and modeling at this scale can provide essential information for policymakers in their resource allocation decisions. This paper introduces an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that accounts for the interactions between water allocation, farmer input choice, agricultural productivity, nonagricultural water demand, and resource degradation in order to estimate the social and economic gains from improvement in the allocation and efficiency of water use. The model is applied to the Maipo River Basin in Chile. Economic benefits to water use are evaluated for different demand management instruments, including markets in tradable water rights, based on production and benefit functions with respect to water for the agricultural and urban-industrial sectors.Resource allocation., Water resources development Chile., Chile.,

Modeling water resources management at the basin level: review and future directions

Water quality / Water resources development / Agricultural production / River basin development / Mathematical models / Simulation models / Water allocation / Policy / Economic aspects / Hydrology / Reservoir operation / Groundwater management / Drainage / Conjunctive use / Surface water / GIS / Decision support systems / Optimization methods / Water supply

Water resources management in a homogenizing world: Averting the Growth and Underinvestment trajectory

Biotic homogenization, a de facto symptom of a global biodiversity crisis, underscores the urgency of reforming water resources management to focus on the health and viability of ecosystems. Global population and economic growth, coupled with inadequate investment in maintenance of ecological systems, threaten to degrade environmental integrity and ecosystem services that support the global socioeconomic system, indicative of a system governed by the Growth and Underinvestment (G&U) archetype. Water resources management is linked to biotic homogenization and degradation of system integrity through alteration of water systems, ecosystem dynamics, and composition of the biota. Consistent with the G&U archetype, water resources planning primarily treats ecological considerations as exogenous constraints rather than integral, dynamic, and responsive parts of the system. It is essential that the ecological considerations be made objectives of water resources development plans to facilitate the analysis of feedbacks and potential trade-offs between socioeconomic gains and ecological losses. We call for expediting a shift to ecosystem-based management of water resources, which requires a better understanding of the dynamics and links between water resources management actions, ecological side-effects, and associated long-term ramifications for sustainability. To address existing knowledge gaps, models that include dynamics and estimated thresholds for regime shifts or ecosystem degradation need to be developed. Policy levers for implementation of ecosystem-based water resources management include shifting away from growth-oriented supply management, better demand management, increased public awareness, and institutional reform that promotes adaptive and transdisciplinary management approaches

Multi-method Modeling Framework for Support of Integrated Water Resources Management

The existing definition of integrated water resources management (IWRM) promotes a holistic approach to water resources management practice. The IWRM deals with planning, design and operation of complex systems in order to control the quantity, quality, temporal and spatial distribution of water with the main objective of meeting human and ecological needs and providing protection from water disasters. One of the main challenges of IWRM is development of tools for operational implementation of the concept and dynamic coupling of physical and socio-economic components of water resources systems. This research examines the role of simulation in IWRM practices, analyses the advantages and limitations of existing modeling methods, and, as a result, suggests a new generic multi-method modeling framework that has the main goal to capture all structural complexities and interactions within water resources systems. Since traditional modeling methods solely do not provide sufficient support, this framework uses multi-method simulation approach to examine the co-dependence between natural resources and socio-economic environment. Designed framework consists of (i) a spatial database, (ii) a process-based model for representing the physical environment and changing conditions, and (iii) an agent-based model for representing spatially explicit socio-economic environment. The main idea behind multi-agent models is to build virtual complex systems composed of autonomous entities, which operate on local knowledge, possess limited abilities, affect and are affected by local environment, and thus enact the desired global system behavior. Based on the architecture of the generic multi-method modeling framework, an operational model is developed for the Upper Thames River basin, Southwestern Ontario, Canada. Six different experiments combine three climate and two socio-economic scenarios to analyze spatial dynamics of a complex physical-social-economic system. Obtained results present strong dependence between changes in hydrologic regime, in this case surface runoff and groundwater recharge rates, and regional socio-economic activities

Building a decision support system with a knowledge modeling tool

Knowledge modeling tools are software tools that follow a modeling approach to help developers in building a knowledge-based system. The purpose of this article is to show the advantages of using this type of tools in the development of complex knowledge-based decision support systems. In order to do so, the article describes the development of a system called SAIDA in the domain of hydrology with the help of the KSM modeling tool. SAIDA operates on real-time receiving data recorded by sensors (rainfall, water levels, flows, etc.). It follows a multi-agent architecture to interpret the data, predict the future behavior and recommend control actions. The system includes an advanced knowledge based architecture with multiple symbolic representation. KSM was especially useful to design and implement the complex knowledge based architecture in an efficient way