A general equilibrium evaluation of trade policy changes in Moldova Republic

Taking into account that the economy of Moldova is open to the international markets, it is necessary to study the macroeconomic actions of the country, that are expressed in the elaboration of structural changes in the trade policy, in the exchange rate, in the evaluation of its influence on the Moldavian producers and consumers, and on the income of the government budget. These questions will be the object of the proposed article

Currency Crises in Emerging - Market Economis: Causes, Consequences and Policy Lessons

Currency crises have been recorded for a few hundreds years but their frequency increased in the second half of the 20th century along with a rapid expansion of a number of fiat currencies. Increased integration and sophistication of financial markets brought new forms and more global character of the crises episodes. Eichengreen, Rose and Wyplosz (1994) propose the operational definition, which helps to select the episodes most closely fitting the intuitive understanding of a currency crisis (a sudden decline in confidence towards a specific currency). Among fundamental causes of currency crises one can point to the excessive expansion and over-borrowing of the public and private sectors, and inconsistent and nontransparent economic policies. Over-expansion and overborrowing manifest themselves in an excessive current account deficit, currency overvaluation, increasing debt burden, insufficient international reserves, and deterioration of other frequently analyzed indicators. Inconsistent policies (including the so-called intermediate exchange rate regimes) increase market uncertainty and can trigger speculative attack against the domestic currency. After a crisis has already happened, the ability to manage economic policies in a consistent and credible way becomes crucial for limiting the crisis' scope, duration and negative consequences. Among the dilemmas that the authorities face in such circumstances is the decision on readjustment of an exchange rate regime, as the previous regime is usually the first institutional victim of any successful speculative attack. The consequences of currency crises are usually severe and typically involve output and employment losses, fall in real incomes of a population, deep contraction in investment and capital flight. Also the credibility of domestic economic policies is ruined. In some cases a crisis can serve as the economic and political catharsis: devaluation helps to temporarily restore competitiveness and improve a current account position, the crisis shock brings the new, reform-oriented government, and politicians may draw some lessons for future. The responsible macroeconomic policy can help to diminish a risk of an occurrence of a currency crisis. It involves balanced and transparent fiscal accounts, proper monetary-fiscal policy mix, and low inflation, avoiding indexation of nominal variables and intermediate monetary/ exchange rate regimes. On the microeconomic level key elements include privatization, demonopolization and introduction of efficient competition policy, prudential regulation of the financial sector, trade openness, and simple, fair and transparent tax system. All the above should help elimination of soft budget constraints, overborrowing on the side of both private and public sector and moral hazard problems. All these measures need to be strengthened by legal reforms, efficient and fair judiciary system, implementation of international accounting, reporting and disclosure standards, transparent corporate and public governance rules, and many other elements. Reforms can be supported by the IMF and other international organizations, which on their part should depoliticize their actions and decision-making processes, sticking to the professional criteria of country assessment and their consequent execution.currency crisis, financial crisis, contagion, emerging markets, transition economies, exchange rates, monetary policy, fiscal policy, balance of payments, debt, devaluation

Agriculture in the face of changing markets, institutions and policies: Challenges and strategies

Since the late 1980s, agriculture in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) has been under considerable adjustment pressure due to changing political, economic and institutional environments. These changes have been linked to the transition process, as well as the ongoing integration into the European Union and the world market. Reduced subsidies, increased environmental and food quality demands, as well as structural changes in the supply, processing and food retailing sector call for major structural adjustments and the improvement of farmers' managerial abilities. Though such changes always carry significant threats to farms, they also offer new opportunities for the farms' entrepreneurial engagement. Upcoming changes in the agricultural environment and their possible consequences for farm structures across Europe are thus still timely subjects. The objective of the IAMO Forum 2006 is to contribute to the success of agriculture in the CEECs, as well as their neighboring countries, in today's increasingly competitive environment. Concrete questions the conference focuses on are: What are the most suitable farm organizations, cooperative arrangements and contractual forms? How to improve efficiency and productivity? Where do market niches lie and what are the new product demands? CONTENT: Preface; Jarmila Curtiss, Alfons Balmann, Kirsti Dautzenberg, Kathrin Happe. The success of gradualism: Empirical evidence from China's agricultural reform; Jikun Huang, Johan F. M. Swinnen, Scott Rozelle. Land reform and farm restructuring in Moldova, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan: A stocktaking; David Sedik. Land market developments, imperfections, and effects in transition countries; Johan F. M. Swinnen, Pavel Ciaian, Liesbet Vranken. Farmland markets, boom/bust cycles, and farm size; Charles B. Moss, Andrew Schmitz. Duality of farm structure in transition agriculture: The case of Moldova; Zvi Lerman, Dragos Cimpoies. Organizational restructuring of the agrarian sector in Bulgaria during the pre-accession period; Julia M. Doitchinova, Ivan St. Kanchev, Albena Miteva. Governance of Bulgarian farming - Modes, efficiency, impact of EU accession; Hrabrin Bachev. Leadership may have a decisive influence on the successful transition of production cooperatives - A social capital approach; Csaba Forgács. Contractual arrangement and enforcement in transition agriculture: Theory and evidence from China; Hongdong Guo. Contractrual relationships in the Hungarian horticultural sector; Imre Ferto. Contract farming in China: Perspectives of smallholders; Hongdong Guo, Robert W. Jolly, Jianhua Zhu. Are macro policies adjusted to institutional arrangements at the micro level? Some evidence from Polish Agriculture during transition; Jan Falkowski, Dominika Milczarek. The Austrian private foundation as a legal form in farm management, with special emphasis on tax issues; Hermann Peyerl, Günter Breuer. Credit as a tool of integration between the Polish farms and buyers of their products; Alina Danilowska. Who, why and how: Problems of farmers' interest representation in Poland; Aldona Zawojska. How competitive is milk production in the Central and Eastern European countries in comparison to Western Europe? Mikhail Ramanovich, Torsten Hemme. Production and trade of animal products in selected ECO countries; Farhad Mirzaei, Olaf Heidelbach. European agriculture without direct payments - A partial equilibrium analysis; Oliver Balkhausen, Martin Banse. Measuring the degree of market power in the Ukrainian milk processing; Oleksandr Perekhozhuk, Michael Grings. Determinants of foreign direct investments in the food processing industry: An empirical analysis for Ukraine; Oksana Luka. Allocative efficiency of corporate farms in the Leningrad region; David Epstein. Pathways towards efficient levels of machinery investments needed for the sustainable development of arable farms in Bulgaria; Nikolay Naydenov. Small-scale farming in Romania - Shadow prices and efficiency; Johannes Sauer, Borbala Balint. How large is the marginal product of land in the Moscow region? Natalia Il'ina, Nikolay Svetlov. Spatial price transmission on the Turkish wheat market - An initial application; Enno-Burghard Weitzel, Ahmet Bayaner. Farm to retail price transmission on the pork market: A German-Hungarian comparison; Lajos Zoltán Bakucs, Imre Ferto, Heinrich Hockmann, Oleksandr Perekhozhuk. The nature of selected price transmissions in the agri-food chain and their consequences; Lukáš Čechura. Labor mobility in transition countries and the impact of institutions; Thomas Herzfeld, Thomas Glauben. Choosing to migrate or migrating to choose: Migration and labor choice in Albania; Carlo Azzarri, Gero Carletto, Benjamin Davis, Alberto Zezza. Rural non-farm employment in Ukraine; Oleg Nivyevskiy, Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel. Opportunities and challenges for farm household livelihood strategies: Pluriactivity in Finland and the UK; Claire Newton. Territorial aspects of enterprise development in remote rural areas of Europe; Zuzana Bednarikova, Tomas Doucha, Zdenek Travnicek. New policy approaches for rural development: The experience of two case regions in Eastern Germany; Theodor Fock --

General Equilibrium Analysis of Albania's Integration with the EU and South Eastern Europe

The aim of this paper is to provide a framework for the analysis of implications of various trade policy options for Albania. We study the impact of implementation of the Stablization and Association Agreement, free trade agreements with South-East European neighbors and reduction of the MFN tariffs. We employ a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which allows for evaluation of the likely impact of trade agreements on trade, output, factor rewards, tariff revenue and welfare. Our simulations indicate that Albania has a lot to gain from further integration with its neighbors and the EU. However, the benefits from regional integration can only be realized as long as Albania gains better access for its exports on regional markets. Liberalization of trade with all trading partners allows for a permanent increase of Albanian GDP by 1% on a recurring annual basis and an increase of wages by 3.4% relative to their 2000 level.trade liberalization, SAA, computable general equilibrium

Agriculture in the Face of Changing Markets, Institutions and Policies: Challenges and Strategies

Since the late 1980s, agriculture in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) has been under considerable adjustment pressure due to changing political, economic and institutional environments. These changes have been linked to the transition process, as well as the ongoing integration into the European Union and the world market. Reduced subsidies, increased environmental and food quality demands, as well as structural changes in the supply, processing and food retailing sector call for major structural adjustments and the improvement of farmersâ managerial abilities. Though such changes always carry significant threats to farms, they also offer new opportunities for the farms' entrepreneurial engagement. Upcoming changes in the agricultural environment and their possible consequences for farm structures across Europe are thus still timely subjects. The objective of the IAMO Forum 2006 is to contribute to the success of agriculture in the CEECs, as well as their neighboring countries, in todayâs increasingly competitive environment. Concrete questions the conference focuses on are: What are the most suitable farm organizations, cooperative arrangements and contractual forms? How to improve efficiency and productivity? Where do market niches lie and what are the new product demands? This book contains 33 invited and selected contributions. These papers will be presented at the IAMO Forum 2006 in order to offer a platform for scientists, practitioners and policy-makers to discuss challenges and potential strategies at the farm, value chain, rural society and policy levels in order to cope with the upcoming challenges. IAMO Forum 2006, as well as this book, would not have been possible without the engagement of many people and institutions. We thank the authors of the submitted abstracts and papers, as well as the referees, for their evaluation of the abstracts from which the papers were selected. In particular, we would like to express our thanks to OLIVER JUNGKLAUS, GABRIELE MEWES, KLAUS REINSBERG and ANGELA SCHOLZ, who significantly contributed to the organization of the Forum. Furthermore, our thanks goes to SILKE SCHARF for her work on the layout and editing support of this book, and to JIM CURTISS, JAMIE BULLOCH, and DÃNALL Ã MEARÃIN for their English proof-reading. As experience from previous years documents, the course of the IAMO Forum continues to profit from the support and engagement of the IAMO administration, which we gratefully acknowledge. Last but not least, we are very grateful to the Robert Bosch Foundation, the Federal Ministry of Nutrition, Agriculture and Consumer Protection (BMELV), the German Research Foundation (DFG), the Haniel Foundation and the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO) for their respective financial support.Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Farm Management, Industrial Organization, International Development, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use, Productivity Analysis,

The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements

Recent work by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) establishes an empirical modelling strategy which takes full account of the structural, non-(log-)linear impact of trade barriers on trade in new trade theory models. Structural new trade theory models have never been used to evaluate and quantify the role of endogenous preferential trade agreement (PTA) membership for trade in a way which is consistent with general equilibrium. Apart from this gap, the present paper aims at delivering an empirical model which takes into account both that preferential trade agreement membership is endogenous and that the world matrix of bilateral trade flows contains numerous zero entries. These features are treated in an encompassing way by means of (possibly two-part) Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation with endogenous binary indicator variables in the empirical model.gravity model, endogenous preferential trade agreement membership, Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation with endogenous binary indicator variables

Financial Crisis in Moldova - Causes and Consequences

The introduction of Moldovan leu has been accompanied by a monetary stabilization policy that until 1998 proved to be one of the most successful among FSU countries. The leu showed a remarkable stability and the rate of inflation was brought down to around 10% in 1997. However, fiscal policy was driven by inertia and pressure groups, reflecting the slow path of structural reforms and the general weakness of the state. Loose fiscal policy in turn reduced the determination in reforming state structures. Arrears and nettingout operations led to the development of the non-payment culture. At macroeconomic level, expansionary fiscal policy led to high absorption in the economy that was not met by the supply side response due to the impeded restructuring process, which fuelled imports and deteriorated trade balance. The ultimate result of the policy mix was the rapid accumulation of external debt and expenditure arrears. The unsustainability of both internal and external position of the state led to the inevitable financial crisis. The turmoil that followed in 1998 the crisis in Russia was a catalyst that speeded up the collapse of monetary stabilization. The capital account losses (capital flight) immediately brought the country to the verge of default. The abrupt and probably persistent loss of major export markets will affect the real economic activity over a longer period. More over, the crisis may create a window opportunity for accelerating Moldovan reforms. A critical situation makes the public and policy makers more likely to accept the painful measures that are necessary to revert the negative tendencies accumulated in recent years, while the large external debt makes the country fully dependent on the co-operation with international organizations, especially the IMF. Indeed, the new cabinet of young and liberal reformers voted in March 1999 initiated a more energetic program of reforms. Likewise, the decline of exports to Russia forced Moldovan enterprises to search new export possibilities for many producers trying to enter non-traditional western markets. The remainder of this paper is organised in the following way. The first chapter describes the introduction of the national currency and monetary stabilisation observed in Moldova in years 1993­1997. The second chapter discusses the impact of erroneous fiscal policy on the Moldovan economy in the same period. The third chapter depicts the developments of the crises of 1998 and draws conclusions about possible scenarios for next years. Background information about Moldova is reported in the appendix.Financial Crisis, Moldova

Exploring the linkages between investment and employment in Moldova: A time-series analysis

After a prolonged period of economic decline during the 1990s, the Moldovan economy has been characterized by consumption-led growth, largely based on remittances. Due to the presence of excess labour in agriculture and under-utilized capacity in manufacturing, employment declined from 2000, with rural areas suffering the most. This paper presents an analysis of investment, economic growth and employment and it sheds some lights on employment-generating growth strategies using a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach.employment / economic growth / Moldova / VAR analysis/ Granger causality

The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements

Recent work by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003) establishes an empirical modeling strategy which takes full account of the structural, non-(log-)linear impact of trade barriers on trade in new trade theory models. Structural new trade theory models have never been used to evaluate and quantify the role of endogenous preferential trade agreement (PTA) membership for trade in a way which is consistent with general equilibrium. Apart from this gap, the present paper aims at delivering an empirical model which takes into account both that preferential trade agreement membership is endogenous and that the world matrix of bilateral trade flows contains numerous zero entries. These features are treated in an encompassing way by means of (possibly two-part) Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation with endogenous binary indicator variables in the empirical model.Gravity model, Endogenous preferential trade agreement membership, Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation with endogenous binary indicator variables

A Gravity Approach to Modelling International Trade in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States: The Role of Geography, Policy and Institutions

Since the beginning of market reforms in 1989, the countries of South-Eastern Europe (SEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have been trading significantly less with the world economy than those Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries which later joined the EU. To explain why this is the case, a number of hypotheses have been proposed in the literature. The key novelty of our study consists in a simultaneous assessment of the contribution to trade of geographical, policy and institutional factors during the EU pre-accession period (1997-–2004). An augmented gravity model is proposed and estimated for a reference group of 82 countries, employing the Poisson and Tobit estimation techniques. We find that low quality of economic institutions in the SEE and CIS countries accounted for a considerable proportion of their below-potential international trade. We perform policy simulations using institutional data up to 2008 to identify channels for increasing the international trade of the SEE and CIS countries.Gravity model of trade, Poisson estimator, Tobit estimator, transition economies.