6,085 research outputs found
Fuzzy Real Investment Valuation Model for Giga-Investments, and a Note on Giga-Investment Lifecycle and Valuation
Very large industrial real investments are different from financial investments and from small real investments, even so, their profitability is commonly valued with the same methods. A definition of a group of very large industrial real investments is made, by requiring three common characteristics. The decision support needs arising from these characteristics are discussed and a summary of existing methods to value and to provide decision support for large industrial investments is presented. A model built specifically to support investment decisions of very large industrial real investments and a numerical application of the model are presented. The model is discussed and commented. A note is made on an observation regarding the giga-investment lifecycle and its effect on giga-investment valuation.Large industrial investments; Profitability analysis; Fuzzy corporate finance; Capital Budgeting
A variable neighborhood search simheuristic for project portfolio selection under uncertainty
With limited nancial resources, decision-makers in rms and governments face the task of selecting the best portfolio of projects to invest in. As the pool of project proposals increases and more realistic constraints are considered, the problem becomes NP-hard. Thus, metaheuristics have been employed for solving large instances of the project portfolio selection problem (PPSP). However, most of the existing works do not account for uncertainty. This paper contributes to close this gap by analyzing a stochastic version of the PPSP: the goal is to maximize the expected net present value of the inversion, while considering random cash ows and discount rates in future periods, as well as a rich set of constraints including the maximum risk allowed. To solve this stochastic PPSP, a simulation-optimization algorithm is introduced. Our approach integrates a variable neighborhood search metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation. A series of computational experiments contribute to validate our approach and illustrate how the solutions vary as the level of uncertainty increases
NEW ASPECTS REGARDING THE EVALUATION OF INVESTMENTS IN CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
The additional risks associated to the actual global and contagious crisis put a severe pressure on the investments in critical infrastructure and there is a real need for new valuations especially those regarding the synergic financing strategies in critsynergic investments, critical infrastructure, real options valuation (ROV)
A methodology for the selection of new technologies in the aviation industry
The purpose of this report is to present a technology selection methodology to
quantify both tangible and intangible benefits of certain technology
alternatives within a fuzzy environment. Specifically, it describes an
application of the theory of fuzzy sets to hierarchical structural analysis and
economic evaluations for utilisation in the industry. The report proposes a
complete methodology to accurately select new technologies. A computer based
prototype model has been developed to handle the more complex fuzzy
calculations. Decision-makers are only required to express their opinions on
comparative importance of various factors in linguistic terms rather than exact
numerical values. These linguistic variable scales, such as âvery highâ, âhighâ,
âmediumâ, âlowâ and âvery lowâ, are then converted into fuzzy numbers, since it
becomes more meaningful to quantify a subjective measurement into a range rather
than in an exact value. By aggregating the hierarchy, the preferential weight of
each alternative technology is found, which is called fuzzy appropriate index.
The fuzzy appropriate indices of different technologies are then ranked and
preferential ranking orders of technologies are found. From the economic
evaluation perspective, a fuzzy cash flow analysis is employed. This deals
quantitatively with imprecision or uncertainties, as the cash flows are modelled
as triangular fuzzy numbers which represent âthe most likely possible valueâ,
âthe most pessimistic valueâ and âthe most optimistic valueâ. By using this
methodology, the ambiguities involved in the assessment data can be effectively
represented and processed to assure a more convincing and effective decision-
making process when selecting new technologies in which to invest. The prototype
model was validated with a case study within the aviation industry that ensured
it was properly configured to meet the
Stochastic Fuzzy Algorithms for Impairment of Assets Management
The present paper aims to analyze the impairment of tangible assets with the help of artificial intelligence. Stochastic fuzzy numbers have been introduced with a dual purpose: on one hand to estimate the cash flows generated by tangible assets exploitation and, on the other hand, to ensure the value ranges stratifications that define these cash flows. Estimation of cash flows using stochastic fuzzy numbers was based on cash flows generated by tangible assets in previous periods of operation. Also, based on the Lagrange multipliers, were introduced: the objective function of minimizing the standard deviations from the recorded value of the cash flows generated by the tangible assets, as well as the constraints caused by the impairment of tangible assets identification according to which the cash flows values must be equal to the annual value of the invested capital. Within the determination of the impairment value and stratification of the value ranges determined by the cash flows using stochastic fuzzy numbers, the impairment of assets risk was identified. Information provided by impairment of assets but also the impairment risks, is the basis of the decision-making measures taken to mitigate the impact of accumulated impairment losses on companyâs financial performance
SELECTED PAPER ABSTRACTS, WAEA ANNUAL MEETINGS, LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA, JULY 28-31, 2002
Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,
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Investment Risk Appraisal
Standard financial techniques neglect extreme situations and regards large market shifts as too unlikely to matter. This
approach may account for what occurs most of the time in the market, but the picture it presents does not reflect the reality, as the
major events happen in the rest of the time and investors are âsurprisedâ by âunexpectedâ market movements. An alternative fuzzy
approach permits fluctuations well beyond the probability type of uncertainty and allows one to make fewer assumptions about the
data distribution and market behaviour. Fuzzifying the present value criteria, we suggest a measure of the risk associated with each
investment opportunity and estimate the projectâs robustness towards market uncertainty. The procedure is applied to thirty-five UK
companies and a neural network solution to the fuzzy criterion is provided to facilitate the decision-making process. Finally, we
discuss the grounds for classical asset pricing model revision and argue that the demand for relaxed assumptions appeals for another
approach to modelling the market environment
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