6,085 research outputs found

    Fuzzy Real Investment Valuation Model for Giga-Investments, and a Note on Giga-Investment Lifecycle and Valuation

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    Very large industrial real investments are different from financial investments and from small real investments, even so, their profitability is commonly valued with the same methods. A definition of a group of very large industrial real investments is made, by requiring three common characteristics. The decision support needs arising from these characteristics are discussed and a summary of existing methods to value and to provide decision support for large industrial investments is presented. A model built specifically to support investment decisions of very large industrial real investments and a numerical application of the model are presented. The model is discussed and commented. A note is made on an observation regarding the giga-investment lifecycle and its effect on giga-investment valuation.Large industrial investments; Profitability analysis; Fuzzy corporate finance; Capital Budgeting

    A variable neighborhood search simheuristic for project portfolio selection under uncertainty

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    With limited nancial resources, decision-makers in rms and governments face the task of selecting the best portfolio of projects to invest in. As the pool of project proposals increases and more realistic constraints are considered, the problem becomes NP-hard. Thus, metaheuristics have been employed for solving large instances of the project portfolio selection problem (PPSP). However, most of the existing works do not account for uncertainty. This paper contributes to close this gap by analyzing a stochastic version of the PPSP: the goal is to maximize the expected net present value of the inversion, while considering random cash ows and discount rates in future periods, as well as a rich set of constraints including the maximum risk allowed. To solve this stochastic PPSP, a simulation-optimization algorithm is introduced. Our approach integrates a variable neighborhood search metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation. A series of computational experiments contribute to validate our approach and illustrate how the solutions vary as the level of uncertainty increases

    NEW ASPECTS REGARDING THE EVALUATION OF INVESTMENTS IN CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

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    The additional risks associated to the actual global and contagious crisis put a severe pressure on the investments in critical infrastructure and there is a real need for new valuations especially those regarding the synergic financing strategies in critsynergic investments, critical infrastructure, real options valuation (ROV)

    A methodology for the selection of new technologies in the aviation industry

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    The purpose of this report is to present a technology selection methodology to quantify both tangible and intangible benefits of certain technology alternatives within a fuzzy environment. Specifically, it describes an application of the theory of fuzzy sets to hierarchical structural analysis and economic evaluations for utilisation in the industry. The report proposes a complete methodology to accurately select new technologies. A computer based prototype model has been developed to handle the more complex fuzzy calculations. Decision-makers are only required to express their opinions on comparative importance of various factors in linguistic terms rather than exact numerical values. These linguistic variable scales, such as ‘very high’, ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ and ‘very low’, are then converted into fuzzy numbers, since it becomes more meaningful to quantify a subjective measurement into a range rather than in an exact value. By aggregating the hierarchy, the preferential weight of each alternative technology is found, which is called fuzzy appropriate index. The fuzzy appropriate indices of different technologies are then ranked and preferential ranking orders of technologies are found. From the economic evaluation perspective, a fuzzy cash flow analysis is employed. This deals quantitatively with imprecision or uncertainties, as the cash flows are modelled as triangular fuzzy numbers which represent ‘the most likely possible value’, ‘the most pessimistic value’ and ‘the most optimistic value’. By using this methodology, the ambiguities involved in the assessment data can be effectively represented and processed to assure a more convincing and effective decision- making process when selecting new technologies in which to invest. The prototype model was validated with a case study within the aviation industry that ensured it was properly configured to meet the

    Stochastic Fuzzy Algorithms for Impairment of Assets Management

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    The present paper aims to analyze the impairment of tangible assets with the help of artificial intelligence. Stochastic fuzzy numbers have been introduced with a dual purpose: on one hand to estimate the cash flows generated by tangible assets exploitation and, on the other hand, to ensure the value ranges stratifications that define these cash flows. Estimation of cash flows using stochastic fuzzy numbers was based on cash flows generated by tangible assets in previous periods of operation. Also, based on the Lagrange multipliers, were introduced: the objective function of minimizing the standard deviations from the recorded value of the cash flows generated by the tangible assets, as well as the constraints caused by the impairment of tangible assets identification according to which the cash flows values must be equal to the annual value of the invested capital. Within the determination of the impairment value and stratification of the value ranges determined by the cash flows using stochastic fuzzy numbers, the impairment of assets risk was identified. Information provided by impairment of assets but also the impairment risks, is the basis of the decision-making measures taken to mitigate the impact of accumulated impairment losses on company’s financial performance

    SELECTED PAPER ABSTRACTS, WAEA ANNUAL MEETINGS, LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA, JULY 28-31, 2002

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