Fuzzy inference model for decision support in sustainable production planning processes—a case study

Due to crises (e.g., climate crisis, extinction of species, shortage of natural resources, human health crisis), customer requirements for conventionally produced products shift to more sustainably produced products, reducing and avoiding negative environmental and social impacts. Circular thinking in production systems offers new opportunities to meet these new customer expectations. However, it enlarges new challenges for production planning too. Research gaps exist in production planning approaches, considering all three sustainability aspects (economic, environ-mental, and social) simultaneously. This paper presents a concept of a fuzzy inference model (FIM) to assess the sustainability of production programs. The FIM concept is demonstrated and tested using a single case study considering lab production schedules. The model’s outcome indicates the most significant opportunities to improve production programs’ sustainability using experts’ knowledge.publishersversionpublishe

Neuro-fuzzy mid-term forecasting of electricity consumption using meteorological data

Abstract : Forecasting energy consumption is highly essential for strategic and operational planning. This study uses the Adaptive-Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for a mid-term forecast of electricity consumption. The model comprises of three meteorological variables as inputs and electricity consumption as output. Two ANFIS models with two clustering techniques (Fuzzy c-Means (FCM) and Grid Partitioning (GP) were developed (ANFIS-FCM and ANFIS- GP) to forecast monthly energy consumption based on meteorological variables. The performance of each model was determined using known statistical metrics. This compares the predicted electricity consumption with the observed and a statistical significance between the two reported. ANFIS-FCM model recorded a better mean absolute deviation (MAD), root mean square (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of 0.396, 0.738, and 8.613 respectively compared to the ANFIS-GP model, which has MAD, RMSE, and MAPE values of 0.450, 0.762, and 9.430 values respectively. The study established that FCM is a good clustering technique in ANFIS compared to GP and recommended a comparison between the two techniques on hybrid ANFIS model

Industry 4.0 enabling sustainable supply chain development in the renewable energy sector:A multi-criteria intelligent approach

The aim of this paper is to provide a multi-criteria decision-making intelligent approach based on Industry 4.0 and Triple Bottom Line principles for sustainable supply chain development in the renewable energy sector. In particular, the solar photovoltaic energy supply chain is used as a case study, encompassing the entire energy production process, from supply to disposal. An exhaustive literature review is conducted to identify the main criteria affecting social, economic and environmental sustainability in the photovoltaic energy supply chain, and to explore the potential impact of Industry 4.0 on sustainability. Subsequently, three Fuzzy Inference Systems combining quantitative and qualitative data are built to calculate the supply chain's social, economic and environmental sustainability. Experts' opinions are used to identify the impact of Industry 4.0 technologies on the three pillars of sustainability for each supply chain stage. Finally, a novel sustainability index, Sustainability Index 4.0, is formulated to compute the overall sustainability of the photovoltaic energy supply chain in seven countries. The results show the applicability and usefulness of the proposed holistic model in helping policy makers, stakeholders and users to make informed decisions for the development of sustainable renewable energy supply chains, taking into account the impact of Industry 4.0 and digital technologies

Applications of Soft Computing in Mobile and Wireless Communications

Soft computing is a synergistic combination of artificial intelligence methodologies to model and solve real world problems that are either impossible or too difficult to model mathematically. Furthermore, the use of conventional modeling techniques demands rigor, precision and certainty, which carry computational cost. On the other hand, soft computing utilizes computation, reasoning and inference to reduce computational cost by exploiting tolerance for imprecision, uncertainty, partial truth and approximation. In addition to computational cost savings, soft computing is an excellent platform for autonomic computing, owing to its roots in artificial intelligence. Wireless communication networks are associated with much uncertainty and imprecision due to a number of stochastic processes such as escalating number of access points, constantly changing propagation channels, sudden variations in network load and random mobility of users. This reality has fuelled numerous applications of soft computing techniques in mobile and wireless communications. This paper reviews various applications of the core soft computing methodologies in mobile and wireless communications

Forecasting Automobile Demand Via Artificial Neural Networks & Neuro-Fuzzy Systems

The objective of this research is to obtain an accurate forecasting model for the demand for automobiles in Iran\u27s domestic market. The model is constructed using production data for vehicles manufactured from 2006 to 2016, by Iranian car makers. The increasing demand for transportation and automobiles in Iran necessitated an accurate forecasting model for car manufacturing companies in Iran so that future demand is met. Demand is deduced as a function of the historical data. The monthly gold, rubber, and iron ore prices along with the monthly commodity metals price index and the Stock index of Iran are Artificial neural network (ANN) and artificial neuro-fuzzy system (ANFIS) have been utilized in many fields such as energy consumption and load forecasting fields. The performances of the methodologies are investigated towards obtaining the most accurate forecasting model in terms of the forecast Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). It was concluded that the feedforward multi-layer perceptron network with back-propagation and the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm provides forecasts with the lowest MAPE (5.85%) among the other models. Further development of the ANN network based on more data is recommended to enhance the model and obtain more accurate networks and subsequently improved forecasts

Smart Sensor Monitoring in Machining of Difficult-to-cut Materials

The research activities presented in this thesis are focused on the development of smart sensor monitoring procedures applied to diverse machining processes with particular reference to the machining of difficult-to-cut materials. This work will describe the whole smart sensor monitoring procedure starting from the configuration of the multiple sensor monitoring system for each specific application and proceeding with the methodologies for sensor signal detection and analysis aimed at the extraction of signal features to feed to intelligent decision-making systems based on artificial neural networks. The final aim is to perform tool condition monitoring in advanced machining processes in terms of tool wear diagnosis and forecast, in the perspective of zero defect manufacturing and green technologies. The work has been addressed within the framework of the national MIUR PON research project CAPRI, acronym for “Carrello per atterraggio con attuazione intelligente” (Landing Gear with Intelligent Actuation), and the research project STEP FAR, acronym for “Sviluppo di materiali e Tecnologie Ecocompatibili, di Processi di Foratura, taglio e di Assemblaggio Robotizzato” (Development of eco-compatible materials and technologies for robotised drilling and assembly processes). Both projects are sponsored by DAC, the Campania Technological Aerospace District, and involve two aerospace industries, Magnaghi Aeronautica S.p.A. and Leonardo S.p.A., respectively. Due to the industrial framework in which the projects were developed and taking advantage of the support from the industrial partners, the project activities have been carried out with the aim to contribute to the scientific research in the field of machining process monitoring as well as to promote the industrial applicability of the results. The thesis was structured in order to illustrate all the methodologies, the experimental tests and the results obtained from the research activities. It begins with an introduction to “Sensor monitoring of machining processes” (Chapter 2) with particular attention to the main sensor monitoring applications and the types of sensors which are employed in machining. The key methods for advanced sensor signal processing, including the implementation of sensor fusion technology, are discussed in details as they represent the basic input for cognitive decision-making systems construction. The chapter finally presents a brief discussion on cloud-based manufacturing which will represent one of the future developments of this research work. Chapters 3 and 4 illustrate the case studies of machining process sensor monitoring investigated in the research work. Within the CAPRI project, the feasibility of the dry turning process of Ti6Al4V alloy (Chapter 3) was studied with particular attention to the optimization of the machining parameters avoiding the use of coolant fluids. Since very rapid tool wear is experienced during dry machining of Titanium alloys, the multiple sensor monitoring system was used in order to develop a methodology based on a smart system for on line tool wear detection in terms of maximum flank wear land. Within the STEP FAR project, the drilling process of carbon fibre reinforced (CFRP) composite materials was studied using diverse experimental set-ups. Regarding the tools, three different types of drill bit were employed, including traditional as well as innovative geometry ones. Concerning the investigated materials, two different types of stack configurations were employed, namely CFRP/CFRP stacks and hybrid Al/CFRP stacks. Consequently, the machining parameters for each experimental campaign were varied, and also the methods for signal analysis were changed to verify the performance of the different methodologies. Finally, for each case different neural network configurations were investigated for cognitive-based decision making. First of all, the applicability of the system was tested in order to perform tool wear diagnosis and forecast. Then, the discussion proceeds with a further aim of the research work, which is the reduction of the number of selected sensor signal features, in order to improve the performance of the cognitive decision-making system, simplify modelling and facilitate the implementation of these methodologies in a cloud manufacturing approach to tool condition monitoring. Sensor fusion methodologies were applied to the extracted and selected sensor signal features in the perspective of feature reduction with the purpose to implement these procedures for big data analytics within the Industry 4.0 framework. In conclusion, the positive impact of the proposed tool condition monitoring methodologies based on multiple sensor signal acquisition and processing is illustrated, with particular reference to the reliable assessment of tool state in order to avoid too early or too late cutting tool substitution that negatively affect machining time and cost

Infrastructure systems modeling using data visualization and trend extraction

“Current infrastructure systems modeling literature lacks frameworks that integrate data visualization and trend extraction needed for complex systems decision making and planning. Critical infrastructures such as transportation and energy systems contain interdependencies that cannot be properly characterized without considering data visualization and trend extraction. This dissertation presents two case analyses to showcase the effectiveness and improvements that can be made using these techniques. Case one examines flood management and mitigation of disruption impacts using geospatial characteristics as part of data visualization. Case two incorporates trend analysis and sustainability assessment into energy portfolio transitions. Four distinct contributions are made in this work and divided equally across the two cases. The first contribution identifies trends and flood characteristics that must be included as part of model development. The second contribution uses trend extraction to create a traffic management data visualization system based on the flood influencing factors identified. The third contribution creates a data visualization framework for energy portfolio analysis using a genetic algorithm and fuzzy logic. The fourth contribution develops a sustainability assessment model using trend extraction and time series forecasting of state-level electricity generation in a proposed transition setting. The data visualization and trend extraction tools developed and validated in this research will improve strategic infrastructure planning effectiveness”--Abstract, page iv

Strategic Unification of Artificial Intelligence in Foreign Direct Investment Application Forms

A foreign direct investment (FDI) is a very popular method of investing overseas but different from a stock investment in a foreign company. It could be purchasing of an interest in a company by an investor located outside its borders and in most cases, governments pay special interest on them. This is a business decision to acquire a substantial stake in a foreign business or to buy it outright as to expand its operations to a new region. Embedding artificial intelligence (AI) across the business requires significant investment and a change in overall approach. It is highly constructive and productive transformation that should be planned professionally, applied systematically, and managed strategically. AI drives meaningful value to business through better decision-making and consumer-facing applications. The general perception about filling a FDI application is a cumbersome job. Some countries manage this stage very methodically and investors always give priority for them as they can commence the production/business activities within a short period. Those countries who fail to gain this competitive advantage tend to lose the FDI opportunities even if they own various other advantages of resources to attract investors. This paper attempts to evaluate the potential of embedding a strategic unification of artificial intelligence in the application forms used to fill by investors at the time of starting foreign direct investment projects

Decision Support Application for Energy Consumption Forecasting

Energy consumption forecasting is crucial in current and future power and energy systems. With the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, with high associated uncertainty due to the dependence on natural conditions (such as wind speed or solar intensity), the need to balance the fluctuation of generation with the flexibility from the consumer side increases considerably. In this way, significant work has been done on the development of energy consumption forecasting methods, able to deal with different forecasting circumstances, e.g., the prediction time horizon, the available data, the frequency of data, or even the quality of data measurements. The main conclusion is that different methods are more suitable for different prediction circumstances, and no method can outperform all others in all situations (no-free-lunch theorem). This paper proposes a novel application, developed in the scope of the SIMOCE project (ANI|P2020 17690), which brings together several of the most relevant forecasting methods in this domain, namely artificial neural networks, support vector machines, and several methods based on fuzzy rule-based systems, with the objective of providing decision support for energy consumption forecasting, regardless of the prediction conditions. For this, the application also includes several data management strategies that enable training of the forecasting methods depending on the available data. Results show that by this application, users are endowed with the means to automatically refine and train different forecasting methods for energy consumption prediction. These methods show different performance levels depending on the prediction conditions, hence, using the proposed approach, users always have access to the most adequate methods in each situationThe present work has been developed under Project SIMOCE (ANI|P2020 17690) co-funded by Portugal 2020 "Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional" (FEDER) through COMPETE, the EUREKA - ITEA2 Project M2MGrids (ITEA-13011), and has received funding from FEDER Funds through COMPETE program and from National Funds through FCT under the project UID/EEA/00760/2019info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio