Interactive Decision Analysis; Proceedings of an International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence, Laxenburg, Austria, September 20-23, 1983

An International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence was held at IIASA in September 1983. The Workshop was motivated, firstly, by the realization that the rapid development of computers, especially microcomputers, will greatly increase the scope and capabilities of computerized decision-support systems. It is important to explore the potential of these systems for use in handling the complex technological, environmental, economic and social problems that face the world today. Research in decision-support systems also has another, less tangible but possibly more important, motivation. The development of efficient systems for decision support requires a thorough understanding of the differences between the decision-making processes in different nations and cultures. An understanding of the different rationales underlying decision making is not only necessary for the development of efficient decision-support systems, but it is also an important factor in encouraging international understanding and cooperation. The Proceedings of the Workshop which are contained in this volume are divided in four main sections. The first section consists of an introductory lecture in which a unifying approach to the use of computers and computerized mathematical models for decision analysis and support is described. The second section is concerned with approaches and concepts in interactive decision analysis and section three is devoted to methods and techniques for decision analysis. The final section contains descriptions of a wide range of applications of interactive techniques, covering the fields of economics, public policy planning, energy policy evaluation, hydrology and industrial development

Incorporating Memory and Learning Mechanisms Into Meta-RaPS

Due to the rapid increase of dimensions and complexity of real life problems, it has become more difficult to find optimal solutions using only exact mathematical methods. The need to find near-optimal solutions in an acceptable amount of time is a challenge when developing more sophisticated approaches. A proper answer to this challenge can be through the implementation of metaheuristic approaches. However, a more powerful answer might be reached by incorporating intelligence into metaheuristics. Meta-RaPS (Metaheuristic for Randomized Priority Search) is a metaheuristic that creates high quality solutions for discrete optimization problems. It is proposed that incorporating memory and learning mechanisms into Meta-RaPS, which is currently classified as a memoryless metaheuristic, can help the algorithm produce higher quality results. The proposed Meta-RaPS versions were created by taking different perspectives of learning. The first approach taken is Estimation of Distribution Algorithms (EDA), a stochastic learning technique that creates a probability distribution for each decision variable to generate new solutions. The second Meta-RaPS version was developed by utilizing a machine learning algorithm, Q Learning, which has been successfully applied to optimization problems whose output is a sequence of actions. In the third Meta-RaPS version, Path Relinking (PR) was implemented as a post-optimization method in which the new algorithm learns the good attributes by memorizing best solutions, and follows them to reach better solutions. The fourth proposed version of Meta-RaPS presented another form of learning with its ability to adaptively tune parameters. The efficiency of these approaches motivated us to redesign Meta-RaPS by removing the improvement phase and adding a more sophisticated Path Relinking method. The new Meta-RaPS could solve even the largest problems in much less time while keeping up the quality of its solutions. To evaluate their performance, all introduced versions were tested using the 0-1 Multidimensional Knapsack Problem (MKP). After comparing the proposed algorithms, Meta-RaPS PR and Meta-RaPS Q Learning appeared to be the algorithms with the best and worst performance, respectively. On the other hand, they could all show superior performance than other approaches to the 0-1 MKP in the literature

National freight transport planning: towards a Strategic Planning Extranet Decision Support System (SPEDSS)

This thesis provides a `proof-of-concept' prototype and a design architecture for a Object Oriented (00) database towards the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) for the national freight transport planning problem. Both governments and industry require a Strategic Planning Extranet Decision Support System (SPEDSS) for their effective management of the national Freight Transport Networks (FTN). This thesis addresses the three key problems for the development of a SPEDSS to facilitate national strategic freight planning: 1) scope and scale of data available and required; 2) scope and scale of existing models; and 3) construction of the software. The research approach taken embodies systems thinking and includes the use of: Object Oriented Analysis and Design (OOA/D) for problem encapsulation and database design; artificial neural network (and proposed rule extraction) for knowledge acquisition of the United States FTN data set; and an iterative Object Oriented (00) software design for the development of a `proof-of-concept' prototype. The research findings demonstrate that an 00 approach along with the use of 00 methodologies and technologies coupled with artificial neural networks (ANNs) offers a robust and flexible methodology for the analysis of the FTN problem domain and the design architecture of an Extranet based SPEDSS. The objectives of this research were to: 1) identify and analyse current problems and proposed solutions facing industry and governments in strategic transportation planning; 2) determine the functional requirements of an FTN SPEDSS; 3) perform a feasibility analysis for building a FTN SPEDSS `proof-of-concept' prototype and (00) database design; 4) develop a methodology for a national `internet-enabled' SPEDSS model and database; 5) construct a `proof-of-concept' prototype for a SPEDSS encapsulating identified user requirements; 6) develop a methodology to resolve the issue of the scale of data and data knowledge acquisition which would act as the `intelligence' within a SPDSS; 7) implement the data methodology using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) towards the validation of it; and 8) make recommendations for national freight transportation strategic planning and further research required to fulfil the needs of governments and industry. This thesis includes: an 00 database design for encapsulation of the FTN; an `internet-enabled' Dynamic Modelling Methodology (DMM) for the virtual modelling of the FTNs; a Unified Modelling Language (UML) `proof-of-concept' prototype; and conclusions and recommendations for further collaborative research are identified

Off-line Thai handwriting recognition in legal amount

Thai handwriting in legal amounts is a challenging problem and a new field in the area of handwriting recognition research. The focus of this thesis is to implement Thai handwriting recognition system. A preliminary data set of Thai handwriting in legal amounts is designed. The samples in the data set are characters and words of the Thai legal amounts and a set of legal amounts phrases collected from a number of native Thai volunteers. At the preprocessing and recognition process, techniques are introduced to improve the characters recognition rates. The characters are divided into two smaller subgroups by their writing levels named body and high groups. The recognition rates of both groups are increased based on their distinguished features. The writing level separation algorithms are implemented using the size and position of characters. Empirical experiments are set to test the best combination of the feature to increase the recognition rates. Traditional recognition systems are modified to give the accumulative top-3 ranked answers to cover the possible character classes. At the postprocessing process level, the lexicon matching algorithms are implemented to match the ranked characters with the legal amount words. These matched words are joined together to form possible choices of amounts. These amounts will have their syntax checked in the last stage. Several syntax violations are caused by consequence faulty character segmentation and recognition resulting from connecting or broken characters. The anomaly in handwriting caused by these characters are mainly detected by their size and shape. During the recovery process, the possible word boundary patterns can be pre-defined and used to segment the hypothesis words. These words are identified by the word recognition and the results are joined with previously matched words to form the full amounts and checked by the syntax rules again. From 154 amounts written by 10 writers, the rejection rate is 14.9 percent with the recovery processes. The recognition rate for the accepted amount is 100 percent

A flexible integrated forward/reverse logistics model with random path

This dissertation focuses on the structure of a particular logistics network design problem, one that is a major strategic issue for supply chain design and management. Nowadays, the design of the supply chain network must allow for operation at the lowest cost, while providing the best customer service and accounting for environmental protection. Due to business and environmental issues, industrial players are under pressure to take back used products. Moreover, the significance of transportation costs and customer satisfaction spurs an interest in developing a flexible network design model. To this end, in this study, we attempt to include this reverse flow through an integrated design of a forward/reverse supply chain network design, that avoids the sub-optimal solutions derived from separated designs. We formulate a cyclic, seven-stage, logistics network problem as an NP-hard mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model. This integrated, multi-stage model is enriched by using a complete delivery graph in forward flow, which makes the problem more complex. As these kinds of problems belong to the category of NP-hard problems, traditional approaches fail to find an optimal solution in sufficiently short time. Furthermore, considering an integrated design and flexibility at the same time makes the logistics network problem even more complex, and makes it even less likely, if not impossible, for a traditional approach to provide solution within an acceptable time frame. Hence, researchers develop efficient non-traditional techniques for the large-term operation of the whole supply chain. These techniques provide near optimal solutions particularly for large scale test problems. In our case within this thesis, to find a near optimal solution, we apply a Memetic Algorithm with a neighborhood search mechanism and a novel chromosome representation called extended random path direct encoding method which includes two segments. Chromosome representation is one of the main issues that can affect the performance of a Memetic Algorithm. To illustrate the performance of the proposed Memetic Algorithm, LINGO optimization software as commercial package serves as a comparison for small size problems. We show that the proposed algorithm is able to efficiently find a good solution for the flexible, integrated, logistics network. Each algorithm has some parameters that need to be investigated to provide the best performance. In this regard, the effect of different parameters on the behavior of the proposed meta-heuristic algorithm is surveyed first. Then, the Taguchi method is adapted to identify the most important parameters and rank the latter. Additionally, Taguchi method is applied to identify the optimum operating condition of the proposed Memetic Algorithm to improve the results. In this study, four factors that are defined inputs of the proposed Memetic Algorithm, namely: population size, cross over rate, local search iteration, and number of iterations are considered. The analysis of the parameters and the improvement in results are both illustrated by a numerical case studies. Finally, to show the performance of the Memetic Algorithm, a Genetic Algorithm - as a second meta-heuristic algorithm option - is considered as regards large size cases

Fuzzy EOQ Model with Trapezoidal and Triangular Functions Using Partial Backorder

EOQ fuzzy model is EOQ model that can estimate the cost from existing information. Using trapezoid fuzzy functions can estimate the costs of existing and trapezoid membership functions has some points that have a value of membership . TR ̃C value results of trapezoid fuzzy will be higher than usual TRC value results of EOQ model . This paper aims to determine the optimal amount of inventory in the company, namely optimal Q and optimal V, using the model of partial backorder will be known optimal Q and V for the optimal number of units each time a message . EOQ model effect on inventory very closely by using EOQ fuzzy model with triangular and trapezoid membership functions with partial backorder. Optimal Q and optimal V values for the optimal fuzzy models will have an increase due to the use of trapezoid and triangular membership functions that have a different value depending on the requirements of each membership function value. Therefore, by using a fuzzy model can solve the company's problems in estimating the costs for the next term