2,375 research outputs found

    Capturing Risk in Capital Budgeting

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    NPS NRP Technical ReportThis proposed research has the goal of proposing novel, reusable, extensible, adaptable, and comprehensive advanced analytical process and Integrated Risk Management to help the (DOD) with risk-based capital budgeting, Monte Carlo risk-simulation, predictive analytics, and stochastic optimization of acquisitions and programs portfolios with multiple competing stakeholders while subject to budgetary, risk, schedule, and strategic constraints. The research covers topics of traditional capital budgeting methodologies used in industry, including the market, cost, and income approaches, and explains how some of these traditional methods can be applied in the DOD by using DOD-centric non-economic, logistic, readiness, capabilities, and requirements variables. Stochastic portfolio optimization with dynamic simulations and investment efficient frontiers will be run for the purposes of selecting the best combination of programs and capabilities is also addressed, as are other alternative methods such as average ranking, risk metrics, lexicographic methods, PROMETHEE, ELECTRE, and others. The results include actionable intelligence developed from an analytically robust case study that senior leadership at the DOD may utilize to make optimal decisions. The main deliverables will be a detailed written research report and presentation brief on the approach of capturing risk and uncertainty in capital budgeting analysis. The report will detail the proposed methodology and applications, as well as a summary case study and examples of how the methodology can be applied.N8 - Integration of Capabilities & ResourcesThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

    Bibliometric analysis of scientific production on methods to aid decision making in the last 40 years

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    Purpose: Multicriteria methods have gained traction in both academia and industry practices for effective decision-making over the years. This bibliometric study aims to explore and provide an overview of research carried out on multicriteria methods, in its various aspects, over the past forty-four years. Design/Methodology/Approach: The Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus databases were searched for publications from January 1945 to April 29, 2021, on multicriteria methods in titles, abstracts, and keywords. The bibliographic data were analyzed using the R bibliometrix package. Findings: This bibliometric study asserts that 29,050 authors have produced 20,861 documents on the theme of multicriteria methods in 131 countries in the last forty-four years. Scientific production in this area grows at a rate of 13.88 per year. China is the leading country in publications with 14.14%; India with 10.76%; and Iran with 8.09%. Islamic Azad University leads others with 504 publications, followed by the Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with 456 and the National Institute of Technology with 336. As for journals, Expert Systems With Applications; Sustainability; and Journal of Cleaner Production are the leading journals, which account for more than 4.67% of all indexed literature. Furthermore, Zavadskas E. and Wang J have the highest publications in the multicriteria methods domain regarding the authors. Regarding the most commonly used multicriteria decision-making methods, AHP is the most favored approach among the ten countries with the most publications in this research area, followed by TOPSIS, VIKOR, PROMETHEE, and ANP. Practical implications: The bibliometric literature review method allows the researchers to explore the multicriteria research area more extensively than the traditional literature review method. It enables a large dataset of bibliographic records to be systematically analyzed through statistical measures, yielding informative insights. Originality/value: The usefulness of this bibliometric study is summed in presenting an overview of the topic of the multicriteria methods during the previous forty-four years, allowing other academics to use this research as a starting point for their research

    A Web-Based Approach for Visualizing Interactive Decision Maps

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    This research expands the applicability of the Feasible Goals (FGoal) Pareto frontier multiple criteria method to display the Edgeworth–Pareto hull using interactive decision maps (IDMs). Emphasis is placed upon the development of a communication architecture to display the Pareto frontiers, which includes a client device, a web server, and a dedicated computation server implemented with sockets. A standalone application on the latter processes client-server requests and responses to display updated information on the client. Specifically, the dedicated computation server is responsible for calculating the information needed to generate the Edgeworth–Pareto hull. This is delivered to the web server to generate the IDM to be displayed on the client device. The key innovation of this work is a tool that is developed to aid decision-makers with a network-based computational architecture that includes a computational server constantly in communication with a web server for fast responses to client requests to represent IDMs. Results show that this innovation avoids time-consuming communication, and this approach to represent IDMs on the web facilitates collaboration among decision-makers because they can analyze several complex problems in different browser windows and decide which problem and solution better correspond to their aims

    Innovative methodological approach to analyse innovation and social impact

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    The scientific literature has presented evidence of the links between innovation and change and has published excellent methodologies to analyse them. Nowadays, international scientific programs like Horizon Europe prioritise social impact and co-creation; researchers need to develop methodologies to analyse the link of innovation with change and new knowledge and specially with social impact. This paper presents an innovative methodological approach to this endeavour using Social Media Analytics to investigate citizens' participation in paying attention to and differentiating between innovations with social impact and innovations without social impact. The method used to address this aim is Social Media Analytics, specifically through a Twitter sample on innovation and social impact composed of 16,794 tweets obtained during January-June 2021. The result obtained indicates that the definition of methodologies to capture citizens' participation in paying attention to and differentiating between innovation and social impact is crucial for advancing this innovative methodological approach to analyse innovation with social impact

    The relationship between needs and instruments of innovation policy in different regions: the Matrix INT - Instruments and Needs of Technology

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    The methodology, which is described in this study, aims to evaluate the gap between the characteristics of the demand and the supply of technology transfer (TT) services to small and medium size firms in a wide international framework, comprising both developed countries and less developed countries. The study focuses on a "demand led" and strategic approach. It underlies that the problems and opportunities of development of the small and medium size firms in the various individual countries are different and that determines a different structure of the demand of technology transfer services. Moreover, this study aims to identify the role and characteristics of the TT intermediaries in the wider framework of the strategies and instruments of innovation policies. In fact, the instruments of innovation policy are not only those, which operate directly on the individual firms, but also those, which can operate on the "selection environment", within which the firms are embedded. Key words: evaluation, innovation, technology transfer, regional policies

    How can we know if EU cohesion policy is successful? Integrating micro and macro approaches to the evaluation of Structural Funds

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    In this paper we describe an integrated approach for assessing the general economic effectiveness, efficiency and impact of public policy actions for large investment programs of the kind implemented over the past fifteen years in EU-aided Structural Fund programmes. Far from being rigid, our modelling philosophy includes both formal tools designed to assess all relevant effects, as well as informal (intuitive) elements to allow for flexible policy design and evaluation. When setting up an integrated micro-macro (IMM) model we are trying to over-come two major shortcomings in actual policy design and analysis: Firstly, to bridge the gap between the scientific requirements of model-based decision making and evaluation and the practical requirement for flexible and easy to use decision support tools that are well suited for day-to-day application. Secondly, to address the observed discrepancy in policy analysis between programme monitoring and evaluation realized at a highly aggregate level using quantitative macromodels (the so called “top down” approach) and the highly disaggregated approach to project evaluation, marked as micro- or “bottom up”-approaches.

    Assessment and Selection of Technologies for the Sustainable Development of an R&D Center

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    The central role of R&D centers in the advancement of technology within industrial enterprises is undeniable and clearly a ects their strategies, their competitiveness and their business sustainability. R&D centers assume responsibility for technology recognition, collection, acquisition, development and transition. Among their activities, the e cient choice of emerging technologies in the Technology Management Process is becoming a real challenge. In such heterogeneous scenarios, Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) models are commonly proposed as an appropriate decision-making approach. Multiple research works address the selection of particular technologies in industrial applications, but very few references can be found related to research institutions, and R&D centers in particular. Therefore, a decision-making model is provided in this study following the MIVES multi criteria method for the assessment of one or more technologies. The model is then applied to two case studies related to the selection process of new technologies at a Spanish R&D Center specialized in manufacturing

    Strategies for sustainable socio-economic development and mechanisms their implementation in the global dimension

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    The authors of the book have come to the conclusion that it is necessary to effectively use modern approaches to developing and implementation strategies of sustainable socio-economic development in order to increase efficiency and competitiveness of economic entities. Basic research focuses on economic diagnostics of socio-economic potential and financial results of economic entities, transition period in the economy of individual countries and ensuring their competitiveness, assessment of educational processes and knowledge management. The research results have been implemented in the different models and strategies of supply and logistics management, development of non-profit organizations, competitiveness of tourism and transport, financing strategies for small and medium-sized enterprises, cross-border cooperation. The results of the study can be used in decision-making at the level the economic entities in different areas of activity and organizational-legal forms of ownership, ministries and departments that promote of development the economic entities on the basis of models and strategies for sustainable socio-economic development. The results can also be used by students and young scientists in modern concepts and mechanisms for management of sustainable socio-economic development of economic entities in the condition of global economic transformations and challenges
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