Prospects for large-scale financial systems simulation

As the 21st century unfolds, we find ourselves having to control, support, manage or otherwise cope with large-scale complex adaptive systems to an extent that is unprecedented in human history. Whether we are concerned with issues of food security, infrastructural resilience, climate change, health care, web science, security, or financial stability, we face problems that combine scale, connectivity, adaptive dynamics, and criticality. Complex systems simulation is emerging as the key scientific tool for dealing with such complex adaptive systems. Although a relatively new paradigm, it is one that has already established a track record in fields as varied as ecology (Grimm and Railsback, 2005), transport (Nagel et al., 1999), neuroscience (Markram, 2006), and ICT (Bullock and Cliff, 2004). In this report, we consider the application of simulation methodologies to financial systems, assessing the prospects for continued progress in this line of research

From Social Simulation to Integrative System Design

As the recent financial crisis showed, today there is a strong need to gain "ecological perspective" of all relevant interactions in socio-economic-techno-environmental systems. For this, we suggested to set-up a network of Centers for integrative systems design, which shall be able to run all potentially relevant scenarios, identify causality chains, explore feedback and cascading effects for a number of model variants, and determine the reliability of their implications (given the validity of the underlying models). They will be able to detect possible negative side effect of policy decisions, before they occur. The Centers belonging to this network of Integrative Systems Design Centers would be focused on a particular field, but they would be part of an attempt to eventually cover all relevant areas of society and economy and integrate them within a "Living Earth Simulator". The results of all research activities of such Centers would be turned into informative input for political Decision Arenas. For example, Crisis Observatories (for financial instabilities, shortages of resources, environmental change, conflict, spreading of diseases, etc.) would be connected with such Decision Arenas for the purpose of visualization, in order to make complex interdependencies understandable to scientists, decision-makers, and the general public.Comment: 34 pages, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

A United States Air Force Site Selection Methodology in a Contested Agile Combat Employment Environment

The United States Air Force’s (USAF) Agile Combat Employment (ACE) strategy relies on host country access and underlying local infrastructure to facilitate airpower. However, numerous factors, including peer-to-peer threats, complex geopolitics, and intricate supply chain management, often complicate site access and thwart site selection decisions. When shaping the battlespace for future conflict, strategists and planners face the difficult task of identifying optimal locations to conduct adaptive basing operations given these complicating factors. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can help strategists appropriately account for competing objectives and maintain a competitive advantage with theater adversaries. This thesis presents an MCDA model that evaluates ACE site selection alternatives within the Pacific Air Forces (PACAF) Area of Responsibility (AOR) using a geographic information system (GIS) enabled analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methodology and open-source data pertinent to the theater. The model analyzed 576 airports in 26 countries and compared alternative locations based on runway length, the Fragile States Index (FSI), the population center of the People’s Republic of China, construction equipment dealers, and natural water resources. The results demonstrate the framework’s efficacy and utility in identifying existing airports best suited for the deployment of USAF combat and support assets. The methodology is expected to provide invaluable support to Combatant Commanders as they optimize ACE infrastructure, preserve resources, and minimize risk to United States Armed Forces